I'm ready to bet 1M USD that the world population will never reach 8.5bn people in the coming 30 years. We will be heading to 7bn much earlier than expected and this is what we are seeing in #commodities.
Once in a lifetime demand destruction black swan: population decline
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NEW: 3 of Britain’s 4 nuclear deterrent submarines are out at sea in an "unusual" situation, The Times reports
Forcing a candidate with 60 million votes to surrender his passport 7 minutes after the election result is pure authoritarianism.
Flávio was wise to leave the Brazil.
Lula is a dictator.
Imagine if a right-wing President did this.
The international community must act!
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Where should you start if you want to understand how LLMs work from the inside? A list of Andrej Karpathy's GitHub repos has been doing the rounds as a free learning path, and I think it's a good one. The core of it, roughly in order: micrograd (a tiny autograd engine, so you see how backprop works), nn-zero-to-hero (the video course that builds on it), nanoGPT (training a small GPT), llm.c (the same idea in raw C/CUDA), nanochat (a full ChatGPT-style pipeline he calls "the best ChatGPT that $100 can buy"), and autoresearch (agents running nanochat training experiments on a single GPU).
My advice: go slowly. Type out micrograd yourself, get it training on a toy dataset, and move on only when you can explain every line. If you want a PyTorch companion along the way, my book is linked below. 📚
#MachineLearning
Link in Comments
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China's 2008 is happening now.
Property investment in China dropped -21% YoY in the first 9 months of 2026, its largest decline for this period of the year on record.
This marks a deterioration from a -20% YoY decline in the first 8 months of 2026.
The latest drop is also significantly worse than the -16% decline recorded during the 2020 pandemic.
Property investment in China has now contracted every month since 2022, its longest declining streak on record.
For perspective, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, this figure never fell below +1% YoY growth.
China's property sector is experiencing a historic downturn.
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Claude Code just found proof that every app on your phone is listening to your conversations. TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat. they're using what you say out loud to build your feed. i have the data to prove it.
i've suspected this for months but last week something happened that made me finally check.
i was on a call with my friend and told him i'm thinking about breaking up with my girlfriend. didn't text it. didn't search it. just said it out loud with my phone on the table. two hours later she opens TikTok next to me and her entire feed is breakups. "signs your relationship is over." "how to heal after a breakup." she looked at me and said "why is TikTok showing me this." i said i don't know. but i did know.
i connected my iPhone to my MacBook and ran Claude Code that same night.
it scanned every app's background microphone activity for the last 90 days. not just the apps that asked for microphone permission. apps that were supposed to only have access to photos or location but were activating the microphone anyway.
what it found:
→ TikTok activated the microphone 347 times while the app was "closed" in the background
→ Instagram → 211 background activations
→ Facebook → 189
→ Snapchat → 94
every activation lasted between 3 and 15 seconds. enough to catch a sentence. every one of them tagged a keyword and cached it locally on the phone with a timestamp.
Claude Code pulled the full keyword cache:
→ "breakup" — tagged 4 hours before her feed changed
→ "moving out" — from a conversation with my mom last Tuesday
→ "wedding venue" — from a call with my sister about her engagement that i never searched once
→ "protein powder" — said it out loud to my roommate, had ads for it within an hour
→ "flight to tokyo" — mentioned it at dinner, saw travel ads the same night
those keywords were sitting in a local cache on my phone organized by app with timestamps. TikTok had the most entries. Instagram was second. every single keyword matched a conversation i had out loud near my phone.
the scariest one was "wedding venue." my sister told me she's getting engaged on a private call. i never searched it. never typed it. within a day my explore page had engagement rings and venue tours.
then Claude Code checked a second phone in the same room. my girlfriend's. same keywords. same timestamps. both phones were picking up the same conversation and tagging it independently.
i asked Claude Code how to shut it down. it mapped every app's microphone access and built a permission audit.
what i did:
→ revoked microphone access from every app that doesn't need it to function
→ disabled background app refresh for TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat
→ turned off "Hey Siri" which keeps the microphone in passive listening mode 24/7
→ revoked "nearby interaction" permission which uses ultrasonic audio between devices
Claude Code confirmed all four apps lost background microphone access after the changes. i checked her phone too. same steps. took about 3 minutes per phone.
within 48 hours both our feeds went completely random. generic content. nothing personal. nothing from our conversations. that's when i knew for sure it was real.
the full step by step and the prompt are in the first reply. takes 3 minutes. save it so you don't lose it and send it to anyone who's ever said "my phone is definitely listening to me." it is. now you can prove it and shut it down.
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BREAKING: Yemen’s Houthis have reportedly struck Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery at Ras Tanura with a ballistic missile, triggering a fire at one of the Kingdom’s most critical oil export hubs, per Bloomberg.
Ras Tanura is the cornerstone of Saudi oil exports, housing a refinery with a 550,000 barrel-per-day capacity and a terminal that handled over 5 million barrels daily before the war. With Yanbu on the Red Sea already hit, Saudi Arabia’s two main export arteries are now under fire.
It comes as Riyadh reportedly offered Yemen’s Houthis $1 billion through Iran to halt attacks on the Kingdom, but the Houthis struck the kingdom's most vital terminal anyway.
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In the past 3 hours, Yemen's Ansarallah announced to have targeted:
1) Ras Tanura Oil Refinery
2) Ministry of Defense, Riyadh
3) Saudi mobilizations in Aden
4) Abha Airport
5) Two military cargo aircraft at:
- Najran Airport
- Khamis Mushait Air Base
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Sbm is the most crowded long for funds at about +195k, in the 94th percentile over a year. Beans are about +208k and corn about +138k, and sbo is at about +72k. SRW is about −72k.
On biofuel, BOHO is +0.25 $/gal, near its 1-year low.
Sbo $50/t under ICE gasoil.
Bullish sbo
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The bearish outlook for soybeans and sbm reinforces the bullish outlook for Dec and Jan soybean oil in Chicago
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Funds waking up to the conclusion that they have less than 5 weeks to unwind their massive long position in Soybean Meal before the new CFTC reports come out????
I’m living in the South-East in Brazil in the middle of nowhere. Yesterday, I drove 45 minutes to the next pharmacy to pick up my autism medication.
And guys, I live in a very sparsely populated area. People here know about my political views, and some even follow me on this platform.
Several people (those at the gas station and the pharmacist) brought up the elections. And you know what? They were whispering. Literally whispering.
They no longer dare to speak their minds. They told me how difficult things have become. They’re afraid that even the slightest criticism could get Alexandre de Moraes to send someone after them. They no longer feel safe because of the authoritarian central government.
And that’s despite the fact that my entire region, and pretty much all of southern Brazil, is overwhelmingly conservative.
What’s happening to Brazil is extremely frightening.
It’s as if an entire population is being held hostage by a Supreme Court judge who thinks he’s God, and a president who was once convicted of corruption and whose political opponents are being pushed aside, just like the communists once did in the Soviet Union.
I hope the right finally unites and, if necessary, even breaks away from the tyrannical regime in Brasília.
People have the right to freedom and self-determination. Here in Brazil and everywhere else in the world.
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BREAKING:
Japan is urging citizens to prepare for major disasters by stockpiling food and water, warning that electricity, water and gas supplies could be cut off and shops may become unavailable.
The government recommends keeping at least 3 liters of drinking water per person per day and 3 to 7 days of non-perishable food at home.
The warning comes as Japan prepares its population for situations where basic services could suddenly stop and people may have to rely entirely on their own emergency supplies.
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Replying to @JamesDula82
For surivival forget "rice and beans" buy beef tallow, bovine collagen, butter, lard, cheese, cured meats, bacon, canned meats, sausages, canned sardines. Max fat/protein min glucose and PUFAs. Max energy with min cooking and space. You don't want to spend the day boiling rice
The EU never shuts up about democracy.
Brazil: the election apparently got rigged, and they congratulate the socialist.
Romania: EU critic wins round one, election cancelled, he's banned from rerunning.
It's not about democracy, but about the right tyrant in the right place.




























