Enough about me already…

San Francisco, CA
Joined December 2007
Robert A M. retweeted
Trump has made more stock trades in his second term than all 535 members of Congress combined.
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Robert A M. retweeted
OBAMA: He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory. It's gold everywhere.
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In 1984, American kids' creativity scores started falling. IQ scores kept rising. The gap has widened every year since. The AI-and-creativity conversation is forty years late.
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The elephant in the AI-and-creativity conversation: the thing it is panicking about has been fading for forty years, and nobody has been watching the state directly. The panic is a panic about the wrong instrument.
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Full piece: "IQ Went Up. Creativity Went Down." The first in a series on what has actually been happening to creative capacity, how AI fits in, and what to do about it. driftpattern.substack.com/p/…
Robert A M. retweeted
It is a basic principle of American democracy that the government can’t selectively target individuals simply because of their political beliefs or what they say. But that’s exactly what the Trump Administration is doing to Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota. To understand why this is so appalling, it’s important to know the facts. Congresswoman Omar came to this country with her father when she was 12 years old. Five years later, her father became a naturalized citizen. If Ilhan had been 18 at the time, she would have had to apply for citizenship separately. But because she was 17, she became a naturalized citizen automatically. Congresswoman Omar went on to graduate from college, work as a community organizer, become the first Somali-American legislator elected to public office in the U.S., and win a seat in Congress. There, she has been one of the Trump Administration’s fiercest critics, which has led the president to repeatedly single her out as someone who he believes does not belong in this country. Now the Administration is actively trying to deport Congresswoman Omar, seemingly based solely on the unsubstantiated theory that she was actually 18 when her father was naturalized, and therefore is not a citizen. Federal agents have raided her home, confiscated personal records, and seized her phone — all to try and uncover a nonexistent smoking gun from 20 years ago that will somehow make their case. Think about that. The full weight of the federal government is being brought down on a law-abiding elected official because she has dared to criticize the president. And it’s not the first time this has happened. Under President Trump, the Justice Department has repeatedly gone after those he considers his political enemies — from the Attorney General of New York, to the former head of the FBI, to members of the Federal Reserve. In those cases, the prosecutions either stalled or were dismissed for having no basis in law, and the same is likely to happen in this case. But not before Congresswoman Omar’s life has been turned upside down, her legal bills have piled up, and she’s been forced to spend time fighting unsubstantiated charges instead of serving the people of Minnesota. The fact that any president, or any administration, is willing to engage in such transparent efforts to intimidate someone should outrage all Americans, regardless of how they feel about Congresswoman Omar’s political views. Because if this becomes the new normal, there’s no reason to believe it will stop with her — or that future presidents, in either party, won’t do the same.
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He has always known his base well!
Trump: I could say the stupidest things and you'd clap
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Robert A M. retweeted
Agree agree agree
The first thing the next democratic president oughta do is make this guy the Attorney General. 👏👏👏👏
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Robert A M. retweeted
Makes sense
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Robert A M. retweeted
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Robert A M. retweeted
Rick Rubin understands what many artists still refuse to accept. Creativity isn't in moving the brush. It's knowing what to paint. AI doesn't change that.
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So the disagreement is pretty clean. Vegas has Chicago around 67%, favored by 4.5. My model has Minnesota at 55%, with my best guess being something like Vikings 24, Bears 23, decided late in the fourth quarter.
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If Chicago wins, Vegas was right and I’ll say so tomorrow. If Minnesota wins, a model that never looked at a depth chart will have out-called the most efficient prediction market on earth in the biggest disagreement it has produced so far.
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If Minnesota’s column starts filling while Chicago’s stays clean, my model is probably in trouble, and we may know that well before the final score makes it official. Count to five. Whoever gets there alone loses.
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There is another branch that matters. My model gives us about a 25% chance that Chicago crosses five while Minnesota stays below it. The Vikings have historically won about 70% of games with that shape.
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There is, however, one scenario that blows the whole thing up. Minnesota crosses five and Chicago stays clean. The model gives that about a 15% chance tonight, and historically that game shape has gone 1-9.
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