Peter Thiel gets a lot right, but boy did he nail it when he said the wordcels would actually be better off than the math and science bros due to AI. The underlying reason for this is the structure of language reveals and amplifies human preferences, whereas science and maths are verifiable domains searching for the truth. It really doesn't matter what GPT-10 can do, I will still shitpost because I like to post, and if you enjoy my worldview you will still enjoy reading it. Sure, GPT-10 will be capable of superpersuasion and genuinely insane insights, but it will not have the weights of my own neural network, so it doesn't matter. It's the same reason that I don't like asking an AI to summarise anything... To summarise something you need to know what my personal mental model of the world would think of the text/video being consumed. And since uploaded intelligence doesn't exist yet you can only do a very crude approximation of that. Even when continual learning comes online it will still be but a blunt simulation of my mind rather than my mind itself. Worth remembering this. Anything that relates to human preferences will be amplified due to AI as people seek the compliment.

The people who thrive over the next decade will be those who mentally abandon the idea of 'work as life' and start thinking more like a billionaire does: You are already rich, now what do you want to do with your time? What side quests actually interest you? What is worth exploring regardless of any associated economic utility? You will literally have an AI that can solve basically any problem you have if given enough compute, or help you explore anything you are interested in, including optimising your own life for what gives you personal fulfilment. The people that do best will be like water. Everywhere and nowhere. Not tied down to any specific career or idea per se - doing it for the love of the game. And some of you might say 'RA, that makes no sense, I've got bills to pay.' Yeah, you need a plan to make it for about another decade, then that's really not gonna matter too much. And if you start thinking like a billionaire you're just not gonna care that much. Go follow the side quest in your spare time then convince a venture capitalist to give you money for it. Pay yourself a salary with that and go exploring. In short: - Careers are dead - Side quests are an infinite game - Health-maxx, get jacked - Be a good person. Reputation is also an infinite game. All the other stuff... Career this, dollar here dollar there - who cares? We will have entire economic zones where superintelligent humanoids are building other superintelligent humanoids. The output of the global economy is going to be absurd. Orders of magnitude higher than almost anyone believes. Stay flexible.

It's important to remember that most people are still living in the world where they'll be an accountant for 30 years in a computer job and then retire and grow old. At some point over the next few years all of these people will undergo extreme ontological shock as all the assumptions, systems, institutions, they built their understanding of the world on collapse due to the advent of AGI.

AI is massively deflationary, not inflationary. All digital goods and services will become abundant first, then eventually once you have mass humanoids all physical goods and services become abundant too. All prices will trend towards the cost of compute, which will trend towards the cost of energy, downwards. As this happens, humans will become unable to compete economically because why would you hire a human that is 1000x slower and 1000x more expensive and 1000x less effective at achieving a goal than an AI? Eventually this will cause human unemployment to massively increase. Those humans have lots of debt eg mortgages they won't be able to pay, which will cause a massive credit crunch and likely a banking crisis that will catalyse a sovereign debt crisis. We are very close to the End Game of the fiat monetary system.

I think a lot of people have this massive misconception that in an AI agent-agent economy humans will remain in the loop. Yet if you think about this for more than two minutes it does not make any sense. Anyone who thinks in terms of systems and incentives already understands this. It's like, if you're running a business, the human has to go home at 5pm and you don't see them the next morning until 9am. Do you want that guy, who is sometimes grumpy, sometimes stupid, sometimes emotional, and mostly uni-dimensional and incredibly slow, making decisions, or do you want the 'orchestrator AI swarm' that is 500IQ and works 24/7 making decisions? Which one gives you a better chance of beating your competitors, making more money, and delivering a higher value good/service? I think you've gotta be batshit insane to answer 'the human'. A continuation of the status quo leads to the human inevitably being removed from the loop at every layer through sheer survival of the fittest. And some of you might reason 'well the government won't let that happen'... Brother, look around you. The government is asleep at the wheel. They still haven't worked out how to turn on a laptop, let alone understand AI, let alone understand that this is a species-altering evolution not just a new technology 'tool'. They don't get it. And even if they did they are almost powerless to stop it because if they implement 'human in the loop' regulations, then capitalism plus game theory ensures the entrepreneurial humans just pack up and set up their company in the one country that doesn't have those laws. Humans probably need to accept we will become economically useless over the next few years, and a discussion needs to be had at the highest levels as to what that means and what world we are heading towards.

Imagine for a moment that it's 2032 and your recently purchased humanoid robot finally arrives at your dogbox. It walks itself right up the stairs to your door, knocks, and walks in. It can cook worldclass meals for you, teach you anything you're curious about, go for a run with you, cut your hair, be your physio if you get injured, and punch you in the face if you spend too much time doomscrolling (then act as your psychologist when you have withdrawl effects). It can hop in a self driving car and build you a cabin in the woods if that's your thing. It's smarter than you at every field ever conceived by a ridiculous margin, millions of times faster than you, and significantly cheaper than you in terms of its task completed per unit of energy. Truly imagine that, then tell me how the modern economy - the one where a human is supposed to work a full-time job in exchange for money to survive - persists. You are dreaming. From first principles it makes no sense. We are rapidly approaching a discontinuity - a Singularity. Existing institutions will not survive. Our way of life will change. Hopefully for the better.

It's a real shame we are in the final innings of 'the laptop job', but clicking around on a computer screen really ain't it long term unfortunately. And by long-term I mean 2-3 years max.

I tend to agree. Humans have a strong disgust sensitivity to useless people due to the way we evolved, and unfortunately AI makes most people economically useless in the long run.

You're not extrapolating the exponential properly. Human digital workers will become negative marginal value over the next few years. They will be competing with AI digital workers who are much faster, smarter and cheaper than them. It doesn't matter how long it takes to diffuse fully, the trajectory is clear. Yeah it might take a decade to diffuse, but you know what happens after those 10 years? There's virtually no pure play laptop jobs. The entire knowledge economy will be nuked. Winning at life is largely about positioning: 1) did you see what was coming and get it right directionally, and 2) did you size your bet correctly? If the Titanic is sinking do you stay on it until the very end just because it hasn't sunk yet, or do you abandon ship immediately and reposition elsewhere before everyone else realises there's only a limited number of lifeboats? Winners win because they are willing to cut all losers and reposition whilst everyone else's ego prevents them from doing so. And they size their bets correctly - no hedging if they know what is inevitable. 'Muh laptop job will persist until 2034 but I'll be paid 34 cents a week and work 90 hours a week' is the equivalent of what some guys saying 'this will take a long time to play out!' are really not understanding. Every year you don't reposition your position gets worse, and you feel more dug in to something that is structurally broken from here on out.

Agentic Action Feeds will be the next big thing. Your AI will just proactively give you actions to approve or deny in one click on your feed. This will start off with simple actions like replying to an email on your behalf, but eventually evolve into extremely complicated actions like launching and testing business ideas itself.

Australia's property Ponzi scheme is collapsing at the same time that AI is about to start significantly impacting white collar employment, and inflation is already running hot. Ominous times ahead.

Kinda respect it tbh. Very chad move.

I haven't heard a single person that runs a business say 'AI is great because now my existing employees can produce 10x more'. I have heard a lot of them say 'AI is great, soon I will be able to fire most of my staff and replace them with AI agents I control myself.' You have to understand that hiring employees is a necessary evil for business owners, they don't do it out of the good of their hearts. They would much rather work with their core crew of 5 killers, each wrangling infinite superintelligent agents, than deal with Greg from marketing's 15th sick day of the year or Sally from HR's complaint about not enough workplace diversity. For all of economic history increasing production has required increasing human labour. Even over the past few decades, technology has acted as a partial substitute but not a full substitute. AI breaks this link between production and human labour, meaning GDP can rise without an increase in employment required.

AI is basically one gigantic margin call on Australia's property Ponzi scheme. Highest household debt in the world meets biggest deflationary force in human history. Massive credit crunch against Australia's big 4 banks seems certain.

When I sit down, close my eyes, and try to think deeply about what the future of AI looks like, I basically land on the following vision: 1. The way most people interface with AI will be through an AI avatar that speaks and looks like a human, but has superintelligence and speed. 2. Your personal superintelligence will be device agnostic. You will be able to instantiate it anywhere and everywhere, first through different types of hardware, then eventually through holograms overlayed onto the real world. 3. 'Apps' as we know them will not exist. Your superintelligence will create apps in the background for you as a means to help you achieve your goals. Most apps will become ephemeral in this sense. Some apps will survive, but only those that have genuine network effects. 4. 'The missing protocol': We are very clearly missing an (ideally open) protocol that combines identity/privacy, payments/commerce, information, and relationship graphs - to facilitate AI Agent to Agent communication and exchange. The essential idea here is AI can now understand and maintain your 'true network' and 'true identity' in perpetuity without you needing to do anything, and this will form the basis of some future 'reputation system' - not just for individuals, but for businesses too. As a simple example, the exchange of money is a verifiable fact that would contribute to your reputation if selling goods, as would the seller's verifiable review linked to that purchase. This example (very obviously going to be a thing), is a key reason why people trying to game AEO are missing the forest for the trees. 5. All human jobs are subject to functional obsolescence, but on different timelines. Digital first, then physical. In the last decade of human contribution, most humans will act as sensors to collect data which will then be used to train their AI/humanoid replacements. 6. I expect something major to go wrong very shortly (within the next year), which will shock everyone around the world, cause a rethink of the regulatory environment, and make people realise that this technology has extraordinary downside if not managed properly. As unknowable as the regulatory environment will be, calls for 'reparations' for white collar workers whose data has - very questionably - been slurped up into these training runs and then 'resold' to the world at a massive discount in the form of subsidised intelligence, will grow. It would not surprise me, for example, for politicians to start calling for the major AI companies to release reparations plans based on e.g. career length, contributions, etc. Some initial form of UBI, or some plans for it, to reduce the heat, are to be expected. Of course, this will not be possible for several years, but the political environment will be so tense that the discussions will have to at least begin within the next 2 years.

Why would you pay a human $150k to operate an excel spreadsheet and send a few emails, when you can buy an AI drop-in remote worker that is significantly smarter, faster and cheaper - for just $200/month?

Lol my brother in Christ have you seen what Europe is up to? They are more concerned about GDPR regulations than building anything. These countries are a joke compared to America. America has the smartest people in the world, no question, and they are ahead in the race to superintelligence. Literally nothing else matters.

Terminally online tech autists are on here talking about how brain computer interfaces are the only 'solution' to AI alignment, meanwhile normies still think AI is a chatbot that hallucinates and that they'll be an accountant for 30 years. There's never been a greater gap between the frontier of knowledge, and the diffusion of it. Normal people need to wake up if they want any say whatsoever in what the future holds. Because currently the tech bros want you to plug into the matrix 10 years from now with a BCI device, because it'll be the only way for you to remain competitive and 'in control' of the superintelligent AIs coming down the pipe. Not hyperbole. This is what they actually believe. The bifurcation of our species - human or augmented - will soon approach, and people should at least understand that this is genuinely the direction this is all heading barring some major black swan that veers us in a different direction. None of it is theoretical anymore. I highly recommend you read the below, to understand why this is the default path we are on.

The Dollar will ultimately collapse but the below is absolutely true. In the end, America wins because they have all the compute and intelligence, and any country that wants their economy to function will be forced to lease it from them. One way to think about the Dollar situation is the USD as reserve currency resulted in manufacturing being offshored due to relative USD strength (resulting in them becoming an importer nation), but now they are trying to reverse that situation through a massive compute build out... So that when the Dollar does collapse they still have the compute, which is all anyone will care about in the Age of Intelligence. It's a massive onshoring effort right before the USD Ponzi collapses, but not of the old school manufacturing type, of compute (data centres) instead. When the Dollar does collapse, all the US has to do is get the G20 together (all of whom are also largely bankrupt) and say "Hey guys, yeah look that whole Dollar system was a bit of a Ponzi, we get that now, but here's what's gonna happen. If you want your economy to survive you need our compute. We will lease X% to you if you agree to the following terms of the new financial system." And overnight a new monetary system will be born. Anyone that doesn't agree will be the equivalent of an isolated tribe in the Amazon; unable to access superintelligence nor humanoids. Functionally third world.

It's hard to tell whether we are heading into the Greatest Renaissance or the Greatest Depression, and I suspect the answer is both, which is why so many normal people are so confused.