Interesting
I spent 48 hours in SF hanging out with billionaires, data labs and AI founders and execs running $1B to $100B companies.
My observations:
1. Sooo MANY stories of data brokers making like $2M a WEEK selling company data to labs. I can't tell if it's the beginning or a bubble, and I kept wondering which niches are left. Digging into it actively.
2. At dinner, someone asked the table, "If a new model drops next month, does your company get better or worse?" HALF the table went quiet! I think that's the best question to ask about any AI startup right now.
3. The bar people talk about now is hitting $1B in revenue in 12 months (I guess that's the new unicorn?). What I didn't hear much about is retention. AI revenue can come in fast and leave fast, and I think we're going to see a lot of stories of AI companies with huge revenue and terrible retention.
4. It's pretty clear we're living through the reinvention of the computer. The model is the CPU, the harness is the operating system, and skills and plugins are the apps. Thinking about it that way makes it easier to see where the whitespace is.
5. We're maybe 12 months from an agent that can watch you work for a week and then do your job without any instructions. The screen recording plus agent memory plus local model combination makes this possible right now.
6. Agent harnesses feel like the new GPT wrappers, in a good way, especially vertical ones. The best teams I talked to treat the model as swappable. One founder walked me through routing different models to different jobs: one for taste and visuals, a cheaper one for the everyday stuff, another for text.
They use prompts they can move across models over fine-tuning, and A/B test the output on what users actually do with it: do they edit it, export it, share it? A vertical harness is basically four things: the connectors for that industry's data, evals written by people who know the work, rules for what the agent can and can't touch, and a clean screen for a human to review. The model is maybe 20% of it.
7. There's a lot of reverse engineering going on/cloning going on more than I've ever seen. People are decompiling software and rebuilding it with agents, and someone showed a suite of like 10 apps that are worth $5B+ each all that he cloned open source. Me and everyone are still thinking through what it means when software gets this easy to copy.
8. My guess is the value moves to data. If the software can be rebuilt quickly, what's worth paying for in a legacy SaaS company is the years of customer data and workflows inside it. Some SaaS companies are secretly data companies.
Gets me thinking about how do you truly value data for this saas companies? Like if we were buying these dying saas companies at 2x ARR before (as example), maybe there is a better metric. Idk, just thinking out loud here.
9. It feels like a good chunk of legacy software won't make it to the agentic era, especially anything built around people clicking through a lot of screens.
10. Every company I talked to wants to pipe its internal data into one place and expose it to agents through MCP. Then they look at the data and realize it's a mess: five versions of the same customer, old Slack channels, PDFs nobody can search. Cleaning that up feels like a big consulting opportunity!
11. A lot of founders are building the basic building blocks for agents: APIs, data layers and tools. Some of the companies I saw barely have a UI because the main user is an agent. I really believe the startups that build primitives to this agentic era will do extremely well. Building blocks is the best way to think about it.
12. Labs can get plenty of training data, but it's harder to get real examples of agents failing inside companies. Whoever has those logs has something valuable.
13. Someone running a big consumer company told me the next fight is over memory. The model that remembers the most about you wins, and the smartest model matters less than people think.
14. Physical AI came up a lot. Astra I think was the first model that got people into AI can actually do CAD, and I think a lot of people are thinking what does vibe manufacturing really look like. The line I keep thinking about came from a robotics founder: the hardest problems in AI are deployment problems now, not research problems. Their robots work on their own, call a human when they get stuck, and every one of those calls becomes training data.
15. Cybersecurity companies are having a moment and are actually cool companies to build now, especially the ones that clean up after a breach. Every agent with access to your systems is a new door into your company, and a lot of those doors were left open.
16. Some startups are worth more dead than alive now. A shutdown company with 5 years of Slack, email and code can get paid for licensing all of it. I wouldn't be surprised if founders start factoring that into when they shut down.
17. People are starting to talk about monetizing the agent web. It feels really early, but when the most popular user of the internet is an agent, what startups should you be building?
18. I think agent insurance is coming. Once an agent makes an expensive mistake, insurers will want audits before they cover anyone.
19. Several people said the hire they want most is someone with taste who can write evals. The models are getting good at generating ideas, so the hard part is judging which ones are good.
20. New trend I observed: startup raises VC, uses venture dollars to become a creator, startup fails, founder falls back on being a full-time creator and incubates other products bootstrapped.
21. Getting SIGNIFICANT distribution is HARD right now. Founders are sponsoring buses, buying billboards like crazy and throwing parties with famous DJs to get noticed. Kinda feels dotcom era in that sense.
Attention is what's scarce! The growth guy going viral sharing his UGC strategy from Wispr Flow is a good example. It's the sauce everyone wants, and I truly believe there are probably only 50 people on the planet who know how to scale these types of businesses efficiently in this era.
Always good to get that dose of SF. I felt sooo lucky to have such an incredible trip during such an incredible time in building businesses. Surreal in so many ways.
Happy to be home and locked in.
Until next time!
Josiah Clark retweeted
As all programmers start taking the work of their coding agents completely for granted, the AI notices who still reads every line. 😍
New slopcore from yours truly!
h/t @anabology for Claudia
Josiah Clark retweeted
This paper exposes a fundamental flaw in AI-generated mathematical proofs: Lean can verify a proof without verifying what the original mathematical claim actually says.
The authors identify concrete discrepancies in OpenAI's Navier–Stokes proof.
Syntactic correctness ≠ semantic correctness.
Lean verifies the former, not necessarily the latter.
arxiv.org/abs/2610.08144
Josiah Clark retweeted
Replying to @quantian1
We don’t have a consistent model of physics
How can you say anything is impossible?
probably worth a read...
Meta published a paper that might end the transformer era.
For the last seven years, every major AI, ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, has been built on the exact same architecture.
Transformer.
But Transformers have a massive, expensive flaw.
To get smarter, they rely on an endless, brute-force supply of training data. And to remember long contexts, their compute cost explodes.
We thought the only way forward was bigger GPUs and endless data centers.
But, Meta proved us wrong.
They published "Memory Mosaics at scale," and it completely rewrites how AI processes information.
Instead of the standard attention mechanism, Meta built a network of associative memories.
It works less like a calculator running endless sequence equations, and more like a device storing and selectively retrieving specific key-value pairs.
The results are staggering.
A Memory Mosaics model trained on just 1 trillion tokens completely outperformed a traditional Transformer trained on 8 trillion tokens.
Let that sink in.
It beat a model trained on 8x more data.
It also demonstrated superior in-context learning and the ability to solve completely new tasks with a fraction of the examples.
It naturally disentangles complex problems into smaller, independent sub-tasks automatically.
Elon is correct. A sealed aluminum tube at 35K ft traveling at 350MPH, air-gapped via delta's high assurance guard (their wifi) makes a TEMPEST system look weak in comparison. This is likely the only way to contain an ASI. The ASI containment problem is officially solved!!!!
Josiah Clark retweeted
Replying to @KrzakalaF
Au contraire.
C'est une nouvelle ère qui s'ouvre pour les mathématiques.
Une ère où la démonstration formelle est largement automatisée et où l'accent sera reporté sur le développement de nouveaux concepts, nouvelles abstractions, nouvelles définitions, et nouvelles conjectures.
L'invention du bateau a réduit l'importance de la nage, mais a permis la découverte de nouvelles terres.
How many pencils, how many humans, how many hours would it have taken to recreate the Adobe suite by hand?
Todos los productos de Adobe reimplementados desde cero, gratuitos y de código abierto
→ getartcraft.com/apps
Josiah Clark retweeted
Moving from individual proofs to large-scale autoformalization requires new tools. We introduce Choir, an open protocol for multi-agent autoformalization that decomposes projects into tasks, coordinates contributions through GitHub, and deterministically checks them before merging.
Choir is modular, open source, and supports Lean 4, Isabelle, and Rocq.
Repository: github.com/Weber-GeoML/Choir
Preprint: arxiv.org/abs/2609.31903
Led by @yidi_qi. Supported by @darpa expMath.
Josiah Clark retweeted
We'll be spending a lot more time trying to understand the outputs of language models. A few thoughts, tips & tricks:
Writing. Something I've had success with: Ask your LLM to explain something in ASD-STE100, it's a controlled language specification originally developed for aerospace maintenance documentation. LLMs well-versed in this language and it comes with heavy constraints on clean writing style that I often find a lot more readable. Sometimes I've tried to soften it a bit e.g. ask for "80% of the way to ASD-STE100" because the spec is quite stringent. But even better:
Diagrams / images. Instead of writing, ask your LLM to create a diagram. These can be a lot easier to process, parse, and understand. But even better:
Web pages. Ask for output "in HTML" to get a beautiful, interactive webpage. LLMs are getting really good at frontend and can create beautiful experiences, animations, etc. But even better:
Explainer videos. The output format I am most bullish on is fully custom / bespoke explainer videos generated on any arbitrary topic. Experiment with things like "Create a 3b1b style video explainer on X. Use my ElevenLabs API key for audio narration". (you'd need an API key for the latter or you can ask your LLM to find you decent free alternatives that use your local compute). This is actually starting to work!
In summary:
- As LLMs get better, they will do more and more of the legwork autonomously, and a lot more of our work will rise up the abstractions into oversight and understanding.
- Luckily, LLMs can help here too because as intelligence and code are increasingly abundant, you can ask for large, custom, discardable software artifacts (e.g. web apps, video explainers) that would have never made sense to create before. Push the boundaries here and you'll be surprised.
Thrilled to announce that @ThePrimeagen has joined Omarchy Core to lead Agentic QA. His new Oligarchy harness will soon be vetting all our upcoming releases using @digitalocean droplets, which will host agents running on our @AIatMeta tokens. Full cricle! omarchy.org/news/2026/09/the…



























