Daily reminder that mail ballots account for nearly half of Florida's early vote and have virtually no shift toward Democrats. There's definitely some Democratic frontloading in IPEV, but Democrats also have a moderate advantage among low-propensity voters (nothing like NC or GA, but still meaningful), some of which will be cancelled out by the 500k extra net registration lead the GOP has added in FL since 2024. Jolly does seem to have a path here. He'd likely need to beat Donalds among independents by around 25 points, which is a tall order but not impossible in a gubernatorial race. We've seen margins like that before. Much, much harder task for Nixon to do that in a federal race.