rp-excel

THE 15% BAND Look at this chart. 59 races. Senate and governor. States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024. The solid lines are 2024. The dashed lines are 2026. The shaded bands are what moved. One formula fits all of it: Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024 Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024 For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side. The numbers: Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share Governor: ~86% Variation explained: 88% What makes it strange: It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero. The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races. Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853. Why seats flipped: At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped. What this means: Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere. A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out. The numbers raise the question. The ballots can answer it.

Los teloneros de Ed Sheeran no vendieron las entradas y llenaron estados, pero le dijeron que no y se fueron. Su banda no convoca giras alrededor del mundo pero le dijeron que no y se fueron. ¡Lo dejaron completamente solo! Pero olvidaron que el cabeza de cartel, el hombre de los más de 150 millones de discos vendidos a nivel mundial es él. Olvidaron que el hombre que logró llenar el Wembley Stadium por 4 noches consecutivas con más de 300,000 personas, es él. Ed Sheeran construyó todo lo que él es hoy sin que nadie le regale absolutamente nada. Y sólo él sabe perfectamente como deshacerse de tipos engreídos políticamente correctos. ¡Hoy los aplastó! Ed Sheeran, él solo es la "banda". Compruébalo por ti mismo. ¡Impresionante!

BREAKING @TheAthleticFC Folarin Balogun will be available to play the USMNT’s round of 16 match against Belgium with his one-game red-card ban suspended. Extraordinary development. Story with @Dan_Sheldon_ nytimes.com/athletic/7423410…

A proud Croatian rooting for the great people and country of Morocco who face Canada, the refs, and VAR tonight !!! Go MOROCCO @FIFAWorldCup @fifaworldcup_ar #Morocco , #Croatia, #Robbed