
JUMPER MAXI/Onchain MAXI Bullish on #RWA $RIO //Ambassador @nesaorg\\ QUANT @AbstractChain
Joined December 2021
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Had a call with @variational_lvs about Variational. As a Hyperliquid maxi, this is the first trading venue outside HL I'm super bullish on.
Write-up coming on @FourPillarsFP.
Abu.var retweeted
We remain on track for this year’s TGE and major partnership announcements that we alluded to in our tokenomics update. Expect to hear much more from us beginning later this month!
In mid-September, we made the decision to allocate a large chunk of our dev resources towards auditing and further improving protocol security. This included additional audits of both the codebase and our operations, AI-enabled pentesting, red teaming, and more.
Public mainnet is now right around the corner, and the trading API is being rolled out to a small set of whitelisted alpha testers before being publicly launched this month.
We remain on track for this year’s TGE and major partnership announcements that we alluded to in our tokenomics update. Expect to hear much more from us beginning later this month!
It's exciting to see the team doubling down on security ahead of public mainnet. 👀🔥
API coming this this month maybe mid NOVEMBER.
Already rolled out to a small set of whitelisted alpha testers
TGE and major partnership announcements remain on track for this year. Exciting times ahead for Variational! 🚀
Gvar 💜
In mid-September, we made the decision to allocate a large chunk of our dev resources towards auditing and further improving protocol security. This included additional audits of both the codebase and our operations, AI-enabled pentesting, red teaming, and more.
Public mainnet is now right around the corner, and the trading API is being rolled out to a small set of whitelisted alpha testers before being publicly launched this month.
We remain on track for this year’s TGE and major partnership announcements that we alluded to in our tokenomics update. Expect to hear much more from us beginning later this month!
Abu.var retweeted
In mid-September, we made the decision to allocate a large chunk of our dev resources towards auditing and further improving protocol security. This included additional audits of both the codebase and our operations, AI-enabled pentesting, red teaming, and more.
Public mainnet is now right around the corner, and the trading API is being rolled out to a small set of whitelisted alpha testers before being publicly launched this month.
We remain on track for this year’s TGE and major partnership announcements that we alluded to in our tokenomics update. Expect to hear much more from us beginning later this month!
Replying to @ChairmanSelig
@ChairmanSelig Releases Statement on Equity Perpetual Futures: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
Variation is generational.
"Every perp DEX is racing to be the next CME. Variational is building the onchain Robinhood/IBKR, and that market trades at higher multiples, not lower"
Gvar 💜
Replying to @koolkrypto223 @variational_io
Just my 2c.
1. Valuations
Regarding brokerage valuations, I'd look at Robinhood and Interactive Brokers rather than anchoring on IG Group.
CME: $109B, 25x P/E
ICE: $94B, 23x P/E
Robinhood: $77B, 39x P/E
Interactive Brokers: ~$131B implied, 29x P/E
IG Group: ~$4B, 7x P/E
Both HOOD and IBKR actually trade at higher earnings multiples than CME and ICE.
2. Competitive landscape
Literally every perp DEX is fighting to become the next CME.
Meanwhile, Variational is arguably the only project pursuing the on-chain brokerage model at scale.
And the team is uniquely equipped to execute on this.
They've spent nearly a decade dissecting, sourcing, and routing liquidity across four iterations:
i) Qu Capital (2017)
ii) Genesis Trading / DCG (2019)
iii) Variational Prop/MM (2021)
iv) Variational Omni (2024)
Each iteration has built on the liquidity expertise of the previous one.
Personally, I'm super bullish on the differentiated approach and the team's ability to execute.
Abu.var retweeted
Replying to @koolkrypto223 @variational_io
Just my 2c.
1. Valuations
Regarding brokerage valuations, I'd look at Robinhood and Interactive Brokers rather than anchoring on IG Group.
CME: $109B, 25x P/E
ICE: $94B, 23x P/E
Robinhood: $77B, 39x P/E
Interactive Brokers: ~$131B implied, 29x P/E
IG Group: ~$4B, 7x P/E
Both HOOD and IBKR actually trade at higher earnings multiples than CME and ICE.
2. Competitive landscape
Literally every perp DEX is fighting to become the next CME.
Meanwhile, Variational is arguably the only project pursuing the on-chain brokerage model at scale.
And the team is uniquely equipped to execute on this.
They've spent nearly a decade dissecting, sourcing, and routing liquidity across four iterations:
i) Qu Capital (2017)
ii) Genesis Trading / DCG (2019)
iii) Variational Prop/MM (2021)
iv) Variational Omni (2024)
Each iteration has built on the liquidity expertise of the previous one.
Personally, I'm super bullish on the differentiated approach and the team's ability to execute.
Abu.var retweeted
Thanks to @koolkrypto223 for his comments, I do not see his post as FUD at all but rather constructive discourse.
On single dealer
I think we've been quite transparent about being a broker-like model rather than an exchange. This actually necessitates the use of a single dealer: unlike spot assets, derivatives in crypto cannot be transferred between different exchanges. If we were to route your order split across 5 exchanges, you would not want to see 5 different positions displayed in your account. You want a sophisticated counterparty to do the liquidity aggregation. We've achieved the benefits you describe:
✅ more listings than any other DEX
✅ best in class liquidity on any asset class even as a new entrant
✅ liquidity aggregation of the best primary venues; no need to open 20 different exchange accounts and keep switching between them
On the moat
Bringing all of TradFi onchain will take years, if not decades. Swaps, for example, are a fundamentally bilateral contract that cannot be replicated by DEXes, and I don't even think any are trying. This is the first time we've seen direct TradFi liquidity ported onchain with stable funding rates (the routing actually doesn't touch a single crypto venue). Getting the partnerships in place for this was not easy; I think we'll see the same type of consolidation into a few winners as we see with CEXes, DEXes, and TradFi brokerages.
On price discovery
Our opinionated take:
a) You do not give a flying fuck as a user where price discovery is happening
b) In fact most users should not touch exchanges directly at all
Currently, no price discovery happens on any DEX, except in very niche scenarios. To say otherwise is massive cope. To build a venue for price discovery means catering to the very fastest HFTs: wake me up when DEXes have matching engine latency on the order of nanoseconds. Do a lead-lag analysis on prices between DEXes and CEXes, or DEXes vs CME, and it's obvious where price discovery originates. The only question is do you want a shallow clone of TradFi liquidity or direct access?
As a user, you primarily care about best execution, and that's what we optimize for. Additionally, the reason why brokerages exist in TradFi is to add another layer of protection between the user and the exchange.
▶️ When 10/10 occurred and billions of dollars of ADL were forced upon users at other venues, Variational came out squeaky clean.
▶️ When Binance was hacked for billions, we immediately put out a statement that said that user funds are safe in self-custodied smart contracts and not moved to offchain hedging venues. OLP puts up its own capital for that.
Variational Pro
Variational Pro will be multi-dealer: you will be able to request a quote and dealers will bid for your flow. This increases the complexity of the product but will have massive unlocks for institutions, including allowing for subnetworks of markets where OLP is not involved.
If two parties want to trade swaps or other derivatives peer-to-peer at infinite size we will facilitate the infrastructure for order matching, clearing, and margining for that.
Reminder that the tech for this has already been built; it's the same underlying protocol that clears billions every day for Omni! I hope you will see our vision to bring TradFi onchain is a multi-year one and cannot be cleanly segmented into "oh it's just a DEX" or "oh it's just a CFD broker". It's so much more than that and we encourage everyone to follow our roadmap which we publicize on our docs page.
The discourse over @variational_io is...bizzare.
Everyone knows it's a single dealer RFQ platform (or at least I'd hope by now).
This is neither inherently good nor bad, but it should shape your expectations.
Similar to a CFD broker, I'd expect Variational to trade at lower multiples than actual exchanges. IG Group trades at ~half the multiple of CME for example.
There's nothing terribly new or interesting about "RFQ", I'm not sure why people think it's a big value proposition or moat.
The real value prop of Variational is that in crypto, UI for DEXs is largely solved, and UX all comes down to liquidity. Variational can potentially list assets faster, get better liquidity on long tails, and generally abstract away a lot of the awkwardness of bootstrapping a brand new marker that a CLOB has. This has been and will likely continue to be enormously successful with their RWA swaps.
That's a very real value prop, for now. The problem is that they have much less moat than actual exchanges; they are not the venue where actual price discovery is happening. It's significantly harder for TradFi entrants to replicate what @HyperliquidX has built than it'll be for them to do what Variational does, but better. B-booking retail crypto traders and points farmers in OLP is enormously lucrative now, but how durable will those margins be over time?
Depending on the exact flavour of regulatory clarity we get, the value prop they offer for TradFi liquidity can pretty easily shrink as more TradFi market makers are willing/able to quote directly on permissionless CLOBs. I don't know where regulators will land here though; there's worlds that it's very good for Variational and very bad.
I see Variational as more of a bandaid fix/reg arb, but a lot of crypto falls into that category. It's attempting to solve a very real issue, but will that issue be as prevalent in 6 months? 1 year? 2 years? Hard to say.
Personally, I see $LIT and hyperliquid:native as more pure expressions of longing the proliferation of perps as an instrument and DeFi as a sector, where as I see $VAR as more of a business with more operator risk, but it could easily print money for months-years. $GMX might be a good example in that it printed fees for a long time and then eventually became more obsolete.
I actually don't think any of this impacts point price much at TGE, and that's what everyone seems to care about. Market conditions at the time of TGE probably dictate $VAR performance way more than any of this.
Abu.var retweeted
Variational is basically a single dealer platform. not a traditional perp dex
and that’s actually what makes it interesting
so are Citadel Connect / Jane Street JX / HRT / Jump / Virtu VEQ Link / XTX
TradFi liquidity lives across exchanges, dark pools, and single dealer platforms. crypto has built a lot of exchanges, but very little of the other two
my bet is this becomes a much bigger part of crypto market infrastructure
curious if crypto eventually moves toward more dealer and less lit liquidity, similar to TradFi
Abu.var retweeted
Yes, its not a dex, its a full prime broker in the making. Waiting on PRO and the T1 Partnerships along with API enabling them soon to come.
Replying to @0xLoris
i'm not saying this to be inflammatory
i believe most people didn't read the first page of the omni docs
ie they think it's a normal perp dex that only matches counterparties and settles margin
but it's actually also who you're trading against
if i'm being honest, imo it's presented in a disingenuous way, describing lots of purported benefits without detailing the risks of such a design
Abu.var retweeted
On the possible Binance hack:
All user funds on Omni are safe. User funds on Omni are stored in on-chain smart contracts, never on any off-chain hedging venues. 100% of user funds on Omni can be withdrawn at any time.
Trading remains fully online and functional.
Abu.var retweeted
Replying to @0xasrequired @DEXoverCEX
Pro (options, structured products, institutional OTC derivatives) will be one of our main areas of focus in 2027. It's already where I spend a good chunk of my time.
You are not bullish enough on Variational
You will regret fumbling your bag at TGE
Gvar
omni.variational.io/?ref=OMN…
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