Fun article by Will at The Oracle @polymarketinfo from the @Polymarket folks on some of the factors that influence my predictions. When interviewed I was beat up and mentally scattered from watching news and so on but he made a solid article out of it. news.polymarket.com/p/risk-o…

Did a brief informal survey of several Republicans I know in Ohio re. the infamous Ramaswami Acton's mom ad. They all said they were disappointed in the ad but would still vote for him. One was skeptical he could win and said she thought some R's would stay home. So my hunch is it moves the needle against him slightly. If one out of 20 R's change their vote in a close race that's enough to make a difference. Risky, do your own DD! Anyone know some more Republicans in Ohio?

This shows the maneuver Republican candidates have to make to have any hope of election in swing districts lol. I have a good amount on AZ-1 Amish Shah winning. Came close last time and now his opponent is a Trump diehard who kissed the ring at the midterm convention. Not wise IMO. It’s risky to predict individual house races. Am I missing any?

October surprise from Iran or steady as she goes? IMO no deal before election!

Just hung out with Stu on the Predictable show and discussed Alaska Senate, LA Mayor race, and Texas Senate. Fun and interesting convo with Stu as always! predictable.substack.com/

Here's why Team Scottilicious bought a boatload of Peltola for Alaska Senate yesterday: (1)Candidate quality; she's smart, proven and well liked(2) Trump and Rs about as popular as toe fungus (3)Romped in the debate (4)Independents love her (5) Blue wave price discovery incoming

Gonna be on Eventual this afternoon to discuss Clarity Act prediction ... Definitely looks headed in the right direction!

Prediction markets still kinda slow summer doldrums... but this frenzy happening with Robinhood Chain is fascinating... In the last few days I bought some ethereum:0xb50721bcf8d664c30412cfbc6cf7a15145234ad1 @ .09 and .14 as a corollary. Huge growth for Arbitrum! Not financial advice, do your DD,risky, I could sell any time.

Scared money don't make money! Yesterday saw 8+ whales pile into Yes on NATO/Russia military clash polymarket.com/event/nato-x-…... felt off.. So I went NO and made +-33% in a day for around $8,000 on clarification which matched my thesis. Don't be afraid to stick to your convictions!

Read a really great article by @jasonwblakely in my unread @Harpers stash the other day. "In the Land of the Data Blind" January 2026 issue. Being that I am a fairly data blind predictor, it resonated. Here are some of the main ideas of the article * Recent "push towards political science as statistics" vs humanistic learning leaves huge lacunae * Empirical surveys can't capture "art of interpretation" inherent in deep cultural analyses nor do they necessarily capture dynamism of changes * With Trump phenomenon very few political scientists were able to "capture syncretism and change, and instead shoehorned what they thought was a familiar phenomena into hardened pre-existing categories." * Maga represents a "break with ideological world of Madisonian Liberalism" and the institutions that political scientists rely on in their analyses cannot be relied upon because if the ideologies change drastically enough, so will the institutions. Existing empirical surveys did not capture this change. TAKEAWAYS AS RELATE TO PREDICTION MARKETS: This is fascinating as pertains to what will happen in the El Sayed race in November. There were Trump people in NYC who voted for Mamdani. Will some centrist Democrats vote for the Republican and some more radical Maga people vote for whoever makes the most promises offering immediate financial help? Is ideology really as important as Blakely insinuates or was the Trump phenomenon more a reflection of economic frustration? My main takeaway from this type of analysis is more geopolitical. Culture is important and not all cultures value money to the extent Maga does. This realization does not bode well for Trump's attempt to extricate himself from the Iran war. Even if Trump were to make good on promises from the memorandum, he will have a hard time assuaging the Iranians with money. They seem to prefer, at least for now, the hard power of controlling Hormuz and extracting painful revenge! Honor based cultures and their institutions seldom react in a truly conciliatory fashion to the assassination of their political and religious leaders. We'll see..

These below are the ones I shoulda stuck to lol. August off to a rough start on some newer less thought out predictions , but the big battle will be in November. Everything else probably is just noise.

Is prediction market trading gambling? Nah. Not the way we do it and not when you're predicting geopolitical events that are based on analysis vs luck. To me it's more of a gamble to bet on the stock market at these prices!

Hopping on Eventual show with Alex Keeny in a few minutes!

Going on the Predictable Show today at 12 noon Pacific, 3pm Eastern…should be a fun chat!

These two articles are worth a look for those predicting what happens with the Clarity Act . Different viewpoints: (1)bloomberg.com/news/articles/… (2)xitter.cf/prophet_notes/status/2…

While a TA in grad school I always suggested my students not think of states as unitary actors. Here we have a really interesting article from Al Jazeera @AJEnglish showing cleavages within the Iranian regime and how they're reflected in Iranian media: aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/25…

Good morning all. We are in summer doldrums it seems re predictions. Not a ton of actionable plays. So it's a great time to read up on things. Here is a well researched article on CNN from July 18 regarding the regime in Iran. cnn.com/2026/07/18/middleeas…

Final video from Manifest.. Henry Lau with @SkywalkTokens shared a brilliant project connecting defi liquidity from @Morpho to institutions wanting to benefit from hedges on prediction markets. Fascinating ideas re turning prediction markets into working assets via tokenization!

France Morocco halftime at Penmar golf course World Cup party in LA

Back inside Manifest, we ran into Ridgely who founded @StandDOTtrade , an innovative platform for savvy forecasters to access prediction markets. Here he tells us about some of its great features...