Ping @EdwardsVacuum 👀
Give Elon a call 🤙
$ATCOA
If the wafer is transported in vacuum, then no pump down is required when it transfers to a machine that requires vacuum. This would greatly improve cycle time and yield.
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Ebba bör få sista sonderingsuppdraget, om det blir något. Magda har redan "gett upp" och sluppit omröstning vid ett tillfälle och fått nej vid omröstning en andra gången. Med C har vänstersidan redan fått tre chanser, högersidan en chans.
Orimligt att ge Magda en tredje chans.
smp.se/ledare/ebba-busch-bor…
At SEMICON West a few weeks ago $MKSI said that they are planning capacity for a WFE market of $300b by 2028, vs. $160b in 2026.
Their Penang facility currently supports c$250b in WFE demand, but plans additional 20% capacity.
Current 2028 WFE market consensus is c$230-250b.
Interesting data point: $ASML is basically sold out until at least 2028 and is still expanding capacity. To justify today’s valuation multiple their EBIT forecasts would need to be cut by roughly 40%. Even more for valuation to become stretched.
Anyone who has followed ASML through past cycles knows what multiples like this have meant for long-term returns. Tune out the doomers, swing traders and FUD. Invest on fundamentals.
Interesting data point: $ASML is basically sold out until at least 2028 and is still expanding capacity. To justify today’s valuation multiple their EBIT forecasts would need to be cut by roughly 40%. Even more for valuation to become stretched.
Anyone who has followed ASML through past cycles knows what multiples like this have meant for long-term returns. Tune out the doomers, swing traders and FUD. Invest on fundamentals.
No further comments needed. Judge by yourself.
Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa: “It is not that I hate data centers. I hate the way they are taking advantage of Texas”
Asked whether data centers still have a future in Texas:
HINOJOSA: “Right. Well, we have always been a pro-business state in Texas. But what changes now with me as governor is it has to be a partnership that benefits Texans. And right now what has happened is data centers have moved into mostly rural communities and there are no rules and laws to protect Texans and Texans are being taken advantage of. So the difference is we will have laws to protect Texans and we need to stop what we’re doing with data centers until we have those protections. We can have a strong economy, strong industry and protections for the people of Texas. Those things are not mutually exclusive, and I’ll make sure as governor I lead to ensure that that happens.”
TAPPER: “So you’re not ruling out that data centers will be able to be built in Texas, it’s just you want there to be regulations to protect communities, is that right?”
HINOJOSA: “And that communities have a seat at the table to decide if and how these data centers come into their communities. Texas is like a country. We are so diverse in all the ways. Different communities have different needs. And those communities have to be able to walk away from the table to leverage what they need for their community. So absolutely, we need to make sure they are partners in this effort. And that has always been my position. It is not that I hate data centers. I hate the way they are taking advantage of Texas. And that stops when I’m governor.”
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Rough month. But it would have been worse without pivoting parts of my portfolio toward hyperscalers during summer.
1M: -21%
3M: -9%
My worst one-month stretch since 2022.
This might sound like capitulation. It's not. I'm still a firm believer in AI and semis, and I will likely rotate more of my other holdings back into high-beta semis soon. I have already started rotating back a little during past weeks, today included, but it seems I was early.
The market is currently DEAD WRONG on many things. Flows are driven by extreme fear and FOMO PMs that have bought into something they know little of, with leverage.
I have never witnessed such discrepancy between narrative and expectations. The market is pricing in a capex cliff, but hyperscaler guidance says the opposite. It is pricing in a halt of the data center build-out, but there is absolutely no way US will surrender to China. Just forget it. But if they would, capacity will get installed elsewhere.
Even if it turns out to be over for AI and data centers, given what semis have done and what AI could do for humanity, it's a pretty good hill to risk dying on compared to many other industries.
But that is just my five cents. Always do your own research. And good luck out there! It's times like these that create wealth, and as we say in Sweden: skiljer agnarna från vetet.
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Recommended read for anyone interested in the datacenter build-out and the potential impact of yesterday's election results.
newsletter.semianalysis.com/…
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tldr;
"The 2027 datacenter boom is already being built, and next week’s midterms won’t stop it now. Roughly three-quarters of the 33.8 GW due across our top 20 states is already under construction, which is why we remain comfortable with the global +50 GW year we laid out in our Oct. 16 article. The campuses are taking shape. The election will change the rules around them, but much of the 2027 pipeline already has a substantial head start.
The fight is over 2028. Our model has 62.2 GW of US net additions that year, most of which hasn’t started construction. Much of it sits in states electing a governor on Nov. 3.
......
If the candidate proposing a datacenter pause won in every state where one is running, those states would together contain roughly 30 GW of planned capacity scheduled for 2028."
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Yes, but its not a 1:1 read-through. Hyperscalers sell a blend of multi-year reserved capacity (at historically lower rates), on-demand, platform services and internal usage. But the high scarcity pricing that SpaceX mainly is capturing is also available to AWS on new contracts, and AWS is also raising GPU rates.
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While election results could make things interesting for tech going forward, I would not be that worried. It's one thing to talk, another thing to walk the talk.
For those believing in a halt of the AI/datacenter buildout (probably most behind recent selloff), there are two very obvious trades to make.
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As I noted a few days ago, Intel's problems are Intel's. teapaw.org/semicap/status/2116065…
Intel fumbles and dumb money reads it as a datacenter demand slowdown, trading down the whole sector.
In reality however, Intel's problems are Intel's.
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Fundamentals that were too difficult to ignore $AEHR
The conf call was extremely bullish. Those who know, know.
- $AEHR Q1 revenue of $33m (+200% y/y), +20% vs cons. of $27.5m.
- EPS $0.28 vs. expectations of $0.13.
- Bookings of $46.7m, book-to-bill of 1.4x.
- Backlog of $101m.
- Fiscal 2027 revenue outlook increased to $150 million, vs. previous guidance range of $130 - 150m
But who cares in this environment.
Hint:
"For every 1 million units shipped in a calendar year you would need somewhere between 5 and 10 of our systems. And that assumes pure linearity, meaning it ships the same amount the first day of the year as last year.
Keep in mind, that's times 9. So it's 45 to 90 wafers of capacity. And if you multiply that times our ASPs that can range, including the consumables, it's $35 million to $70 million for each million units."
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