Author 'The Fall of the Red Wall', ‘Badgeland' and ‘Collapse of the Conservatives’. Co-founder @buzzsumo @kineo. Still learning.

London
Joined September 2008
My new book 'Collapse of the Conservatives: Volatile Voters, Broken Britain and a Punishment Election' is published today! You can get a copy at amzn.to/48fzWsp
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Steve Rayson retweeted
Exclusive: Taxes are on course to rise to yet another post-war record in the Budget, the OBR is expected to find on Wedneday New figures obtained by the Liberal Democrats show that more than half a million people will be dragged into paying the higher rate of income tax this year The figures, from the House of Commons Library, show that 580,000 more people will pay the 40p higher rate in 2026-27, taking the total to 7.7 million Senior police constables earning £52,014 will face a £570 tax hit, while senior nurses, who can earn £79,504, will pay an extra £2,660 every year Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem Treasury spokeswoman, said: “These figures expose the shocking scale of the stealth tax raid started by the Conservatives and continued by Labour. “Our key workers, such as nurses, teachers and police officers, [are] being hit with a massive tax penalty just as energy bills rise and inflation soars.” thetimes.com/uk/politics/art…
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NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos 📊Labour on 32% with a lead of +8 – the largest Labour lead Ipsos have recorded this parliament 📊Conservatives take second place the first time since June 2025 📊Reform UK down 3 points and Greens down 5
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One NHS Highland worker has been receiving their full salary and benefits for 17 YEARS despite not having a specific job anymore. The health board refused to say what the worker had been doing for almost two decades and how much they had been paid over that period:
Major investigation from The Sunday Times - the Scottish state is paying a minimum of £27m a year to around 800 public sector workers, in the NHS, councils, police etc who do not have a job, but they cannot be made redundant owing to SNP policy thetimes.com/uk/scotland/art…
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Steve Rayson retweeted
The UK’s public sector debt has officially surpassed £3 trillion, on a provisional basis. It is striking how rapidly £2 trillion pounds has been added to the national debt. ONS: “Public sector net debt first exceeded £2 trillion in June 2020, during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, having first exceeded £1 trillion in February 2010 following the global financial crisis.”
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Ukraine was winning the war, so Trump kneecapped Ukraine to help Russia. I wish it weren’t that simple, but it is. Our president is in bed with our enemies.
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Steve Rayson retweeted
Which? magazine urges people to stop using Booking.com on the grounds they are hopeless at detecting scams on their site. Quite right too. Use Booking.com at your peril.
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The biggest, and stupidest, myth in European politics, particularly popular in France, is that Europe suffers the consequences of "austerity" and "neoliberalism". In the biggest 5 countries in Europe, more than half of the population makes its income from the state, less than half from the private sector. This is what makes the problem of reducing the welfare state so impossible: more than half of the voters are net recipients. No surprise that Italy's budget has not been balanced in 100 years, France's in 50 years (ooh la la, l'austérité!!): -France: 30 million from the state versus 21m private sector workers. State spending is 57% of GDP, taxes more than half the economy. The budget hasn't been balanced in the lifetime of most French (since 1974). - Germany: 35 million adults from the state, versus 34 million from the private sector. 10% of the population is registered as severely disabled. Public spending is over half of GDP. Germany has had a continuous budget deficit since 2019. -Italy: 23 million from the state, versus 20.5 million private-sector workers. Public spending is 51% of GDP. Italy has had a budget deficit every year since 1925, for 100 years. - Spain more people get their income from the state since 2024: 18.21 million from the public sector versus 17.9 million people working in the private sector. Since 2025, Spain also had more government employees than self-employed workers (autónomos) for the first time in history. State spending is at 45%, budget has not been balanced since 2007. - UK: 54% of households now receive more in state benefits than they pay in taxes. State spending is 44.5% of GDP, taxes (40%) are at their highest since 1950, the budget hasn't been balanced since 2001, and 1 in 5 new cars is paid by the government through a bizarre state disability scheme (Motability).
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Of course it did--the USA is helping Putin. People need to accept that.
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Steve Rayson retweeted
There's no more pretense. The shameful truth is now clear. By withholding critical Intel and Internet services, and lifting sanctions on Russia to replenish Putin's war machine, @realDonaldTrump & @elonmusk are now fully complicit. They're on Putin's side. nytimes.com/2026/10/14/world… via @NYTimes
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Steve Rayson retweeted
May he never be forgiven. Not in life, not by history.
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Steve Rayson retweeted
Some thoughts on the Budget
With weeks to go, all signs point to a ‘Phoney Budget’ John Healey’s first budget as chancellor looks set to be an anticlimax – here’s why Read @BenZaranko's latest newsletter: bit.ly/3WoA1Ij
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Steve Rayson retweeted
🚣Burnham now seriously rowing back on Brexit/Russia in the Commons He says: "It is a matter of record, Mr Speaker, that Russian actors sought to interfere in the 2019 general election, and we think it is inconceivable that this was the first time." But on the Rest Is Politics he said: "I asked the question coming to Downing Street, was there interference in the 2016 referendum from Russia? And I've had the clear answer that yes, there was." But "we think it's inconceivable" is very different to "clear answer" of successful interference.
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NEW: The Chancellor’s fiscal ‘headroom’ could be larger than many expect, but spending pressures will be a key challenge for John Healey at the Budget. 🧵 Here are the main findings from our 2026 IFS Green Budget, funded by @NuffieldFound in association with @BarclaysCIB:
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Steve Rayson retweeted
This is dark shit. Blaming Zelenskyy for world oil price rises when it's Trump's mindless Iran war that caused it.
Trump: Zelenskyy wants to make problems for the world and our farmers. He better damn well stop.
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Steve Rayson retweeted
Still on what would have been deemed unlikely if not unthinkable not so long ago... 👇🏼 #economy #markets #energy
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Steve Rayson retweeted
Berlin Playbook is pretty punchy this morning on the press plan for Andy Burnham's trip to Berlin 👀
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Government keep telling us they're getting a grip on this, but these numbers suggest otherwise.
Home Office figures showing 1,739 arriving by small boat this week - roughly 250 a day
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This is just gaslighting. 47% of the cost at the fuel pump is tax. So the government could do a lot if it wanted to help people instead it is raking in higher income through VAT on higher fuel bills.
I know people are worried about fuel prices. And I get it. You get to the pump, watch the numbers climb, and wonder why it's costing so much more than it used to.   The reality is that global events are pushing up costs, and families here at home are feeling the impact.   But I won't accept that there's nothing I can do to help.   That's why from today, you'll be able to see petrol and diesel prices on Google Maps, compare nearby stations and find the cheapest option before you fill up.   It's a small change, but if there's a practical way to help people keep more money in their pocket, I'll do it.
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Steve Rayson retweeted
£100,000 invested 20 years ago would need to be worth about £188,000 today just to keep pace with inflation. Real profit: £0 Potential capital gain: £88,000 Investors are being taxed on non existent profits.
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Can see why this is going viral. Easy to the value of benefits bill claimed in any constituency or town. benefitsdata.uk/mybill
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