The Global Gambit (GG)

IRAN WAR IS COMPLETELY CHOKING GLOBAL ECONOMY -w/ Economist Philip Pilkington teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1wxWjlNPo…

SAUDI ARABIAS ARMY BEING EXPOSED BY HOUTHIS AS EGYPT PLEDGES HELP - w/ Anas Alqaed teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1jGXgBNWD…

IRAN DELIBERATELY STALLING PEACE TALKS TO EXPLOIT THE US MIDTERMS - w/ Aaron David Miller teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1MJgNbBgd…

TRUMP CLAIMS CHINA AND RUSSIA NOT HELPING IRAN 'AT ALL' - w/ Max Meizlish teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1RKjpbnnR…

SAUDI ARABIA SUFFERS BIGGEST DEATH TOLL AS WAR ESCALATES RAPIDLY - w/ Amb Edmund Fitton-Brown teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1qJVmyXdv…

TRUMP 'DOESNT REALLY WANT PEACE', IRAN HITS MORE TANKERS IN HORMUZ - w/ Ray McGovern teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1nGeLMaLL…

🇺🇸🤡🇷🇺 Three weeks ago Trump signed legislation to sanction countries that buy Russian oil. On Friday he called Putin and asked for Russian diesel. Same man. Same desk. Three weeks apart. The media is shocked. I am not shocked. And neither should you. Because this was never a plot twist. This is Trump doing exactly what Trump has always done — and if you paid attention, you knew it was coming. Russia agreed to nothing. Stopped nothing. Conceded nothing. No ceasefire. No peace talks. No reduction in strikes on Ukrainian cities. And got sanctions relief, hard currency, and the clearest signal yet that American economic pressure on Russia has a price — Trump’s midterm polling. Ukraine spent years finding what actually hurts Russia. The refineries. The fuel supply. It worked. Diesel exports collapsed from 850,000 barrels a day to 190,000. Russia was importing its own diesel. Ukraine found the lever. Washington asked it to let go. The day after Trump’s announcement, Russia bombed Kyiv. Seventeen civilians killed. Three of them children. Putin confirmed it in his own statement. Personal contacts reaffirmed. Security service cooperation continuing. He didn’t even need to pretend it was a negotiation. Full video in first comment ↓ | Follow @PKurzin for exclusive access to the conversations, conflicts and crises shaping our world.

Putin wants to mobilise 1.8 million Russians and throw them at Ukraine. A generation sacrificed for a war he started and cannot finish. @PKurzin spoke with Konstantin Samoilov - an insider with direct sources inside Russia, who says the silent mobilisation has already begun. Manhunts in Penza and Rostov were just the test. The full rollout starts the Monday after the election. "That is the aim. To get 1.8 million Russian men and throw them to Ukraine. Only with bodies. That's the only option they have left." But Ukraine is not fighting a war of bodies. It is fighting a war of drones, precision strikes, and AI-assisted targeting. Putin is about to throw 1.8 million men at a problem that men cannot solve. Samoilov's verdict: this is the beginning of the end. Putin will escalate. But he cannot survive the escalation. Full interview in first comment ↓ | Follow @PKurzin for exclusive access to the conversations, conflicts and crises shaping our world.

🇺🇦🪖🇪🇺 Ukraine has figured out how to defeat Russia. NATO is finally starting to catch up. General David Petraeus - former four-star NATO commander, in an exclusive interview - says the West now has the blueprint. Ukraine wrote it under active bombardment. "Instead of three tank brigades, what we really need is four unmanned systems brigades." Software changes every week. Hardware every three weeks. Agile manufacturing at scale. Ukraine is doing all of this while fighting for its survival. NATO is replacing expensive manned systems with cheap attritable drones. The West is learning. And for the first time, it is learning fast enough. Full interview in first comment ↓ | Follow @PKurzin for exclusive access to the conversations, conflicts and crises shaping our world.

🇷🇺💥🇺🇦 Russia is sending soldiers to the front with two weeks of training. Ukraine is capturing them before they've learned to fight. I, @PKurzin, asked General Petraeus — former CIA Director — what this tells us about Russia's war machine. His answer was damning. "They are sworn in, given a uniform, sent to a unit, and the commander says — run across the street and establish a new foothold." Ukraine sees them coming with drones. The coffins keep coming home. The gas lines are getting worse. Russia has five times Ukraine's population and an economy fifteen times its size. It is still losing the innovation war. And running out of men who know how to fight. Putin started this war promising Russian greatness. He's delivering Russian graves. Full interview in first comment ↓ | Follow @PKurzin for exclusive access to the conversations, conflicts and crises shaping our world.

TRUMP'S IRAN STRATEGY IS GETTING WORSE BY THE DAY - w/ David Pyne teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1XxygwzwR…

🇮🇱⚔️🌍Netanyahu warned that a new Muslim military alliance could emerge. Yet his own actions in Gaza, Lebanon and more helped form it. For decades the Middle East was binary — Saudi Arabia vs Iran, Sunni vs Shia, American order vs axis of resistance. That binary is now obsolete. Three blocs now exist. The Abraham Accords bloc. The Iranian Axis. And the new Mecca bloc — Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan — sitting between both, wary of both, and explicitly hedging against American unreliability. Trump's crowning diplomatic ambition was Saudi-Israel normalisation. The Mecca pact is not a direct rejection of that. But Saudi Arabia has now formally demonstrated it is willing to build alternatives to the American-led order. That is a signal to Washington. "We are not captive to your priorities. We have options." And now two competing regional security architectures exist simultaneously. America is somehow trying to straddle both while prioritising one. Full video in first comment ↓ | Follow @PKurzin for more

GLOBAL GROWTH IS SLOWING, BUT AMERICA REFUSES TO NOTICE - w/ Alex Krainer teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1vKpPPMQv…

🇷🇺🪦 Putin's war has cost Russia 1.4 million casualties since 2022. More than four times every American killed in war since World War II. An entire generation. Lost to one man's warped obsession. And still it isn't working. Russia's monthly casualty rate has now exceeded its monthly recruitment rate. 30,000 casualties every month. 27,000 new recruits. The gap widens every single month. In April alone, Russia lost 25,000 troops to advance 53 square kilometres in Donetsk. 470 soldiers per square kilometre. The casualty ratio has risen from two or three to one earlier in the war to eight to one in 2026. Russia is offering $140,000 signing bonuses. It is signing up foreign nationals, students, and residents of occupied Ukrainian territories. And still the numbers fall short. Because no financial incentive can fix the reason people aren't signing up. They know what happens when they arrive. The CIA confirmed what Russian military bloggers had been saying for months. The average life expectancy of a new Russian recruit after arrival is between 20 and 30 minutes. These numbers reach every Russian family. Not through state television. Through the silence of a phone that never stops ringing and a son who never comes home. Full video in first comment ↓ | Follow @PKurzin for more

🇷🇺🪖 Putin is now trapped in his own war. If he mobilises, he admits the war is failing. But if he doesn't, his frontlines collapse. Russia's military is demanding 500,000 additional soldiers immediately. The MOD is warning that without them the front lines will collapse this winter. 30,000 casualties a month and climbing. But mass mobilisation terrifies the Kremlin more than the front line does. It would pull more men from an already depleted labour force. It would trigger protests from soldiers' mothers — the one constituency historically capable of putting real pressure on Russian governments. And it would make the scale of this war visible and personal for every Russian family in a way that four years of state television have carefully prevented. There is no version of this that doesn't force Putin to admit something he has spent four years refusing to admit. A winning military does not face this choice. And then there is Ukraine. A Ukrainian general just resigned rather than preside over failure. That act — choosing accountability over self-preservation — is structurally impossible in Putin's military. Russian generals don't resign. They fall out of windows. One system corrects. The other compounds. That is the difference between who wins this war. Full video in first comment ↓ | Follow @PKurzin for more

On the one hand many disprove of Zelensky to dismiss Defense Minister Fedorov. But on the other, so many Ukrainians able to openly protest against it, demonstrates again that the country’s democracy is still working, even in wartime.

🇺🇦🤝🇪🇺 Ukraine started this war as a recipient. Now it's becoming Europe's leading security provider. Retired US Army @general_ben, in an exclusive interview on @theglobalgambit, says within ten years Ukraine will be the heart of Europe's defence industry — the same role it played in the Soviet Union for decades. The US is already moving. A deal potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars for American procurement of Ukrainian-produced drones is reportedly close. "More and more they are going to be a security provider — not just in terms of the defence industry, but where they sit on the map, on the Black Sea, between Russia and Europe." Ukraine isn't becoming the next recipient of European charity. It's becoming the next Israel — a porcupine. Unassailable. Self-sufficient. A deterrent in its own right. And the momentum of this war has shifted in Ukraine's favour. Unambiguously. Full interview in first comment ↓ | Follow @PKurzin for more

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Putin spent years cultivating Trump. It just backfired spectacularly. Trump sat next to Zelensky, called him a winner, and said Ukraine has a lot of future. Putin's two core strategic bets — that Western support would fracture and that Ukraine couldn't sustain the military pressure — are both failing simultaneously. The coalition hasn't fractured. Ukraine just got a licence to manufacture the one weapon system Russia has most desperately tried to prevent it from having. NATO locked in 2 years of financial guarantees at a level Russia can never match. Ukraine's defence industry is being integrated into NATO's industrial base. And the one external actor Putin needed most has completely shifted. Never before have I seen Putin this paranoid. Never before approaching Russian elites asking for money. Never before so rattled — not by the United States, but by Europe and Ukraine. Putin is running out of road. Full video in first comment ↓ | Follow @PKurzin for more