ai is the biggest bet in markets. i check the math on it capex, margins, who gets paid · math, not advice

on a napkin
Joined September 2026
1999. ELON MUSK GETS HIS FIRST MILLIONS AND A $1M SUPERCAR... BUT HIS BIGGEST FEAR THAT DAY WASN'T LOSING THE MONEY 7am. a truck stops outside a small apartment and a 27-year-old Musk watches a McLaren F1 roll off the back "there are 62 McLarens in the world and i will own one of them" "it's a million dollars for a car. it's decadent" he'd just sold Zip2 to Compaq for ~$307M. his cut: ~$22M then he says the line that tells you who he is: "just 3 years ago i was showering at the Y and sleeping on the office floor" his fiancée Justine is standing right next to him. a new millionaire with a new supercar. and this is what he's worried about: "my fear is that we become spoiled brats. that we lose a sense of appreciation and perspective" he knew exactly what the money could buy: "i could go and buy one of the islands in the bahamas and turn it into my personal fiefdom" "i'm much more interested in trying to build and create a new company" and he meant it. he put "the great majority" of his net worth into x.com, an online bank almost nobody believed in his own words: "it's sort of like a series of poker games" "i haven't gone and taken my winnings... i've just put almost all of it back into the new game" x.com became paypal. paypal turned into ~$180M. the $180M went into spacex and tesla. you know the rest and the car? a year later, Peter Thiel in the passenger seat, on the way to pitch Sequoia. Musk floors it. the F1 spins and goes airborne. no insurance. both walk away napkin math: the toy: $1M in 1999. F1s now sell for $20M+. ~20x the chips he pushed back on the table: ~$22M. today: hundreds of billions. four more zeros the island: still just an island the only time he ever cashed out, he bought a car. everything else went back into the game 26 years later the richest man alive sleeps in an airstream. the 27-year-old who was scared of becoming a spoiled brat never let it happen
Turns out the future does have flying cars
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ELON MUSK: "AT TIMES I'VE WONDERED IF IT WAS REALLY THE RIGHT CHOICE... IT HAS BEEN A VERY DIFFICULT JOURNEY"... AFTER A QUESTION ABOUT THE HARD TIMES OF 2008, ELON ASKED TO STOP THE INTERVIEW... IT'S STILL HARD FOR HIM TO TALK ABOUT a Danish TV crew sits down with Elon. Tesla is alive, SpaceX is flying. the worst is supposedly behind him the correspondent walks him through the money first after PayPal he had about $180M. the plan was simple: put half into the new companies, keep the other half. "that's not how it worked out" $100M in, and they still needed more. then the 2008 crisis hit "in the end I had to invest everything" "I was borrowing money from friends to pay the rent" "were you on the edge of bankruptcy?" "I didn't even own a house" then the question everyone thinks about: "you could have bought an island and sipped cocktails for the rest of your life. why take the risk?" he doesn't answer with a slogan. he pauses "at times I've wondered if it was really the right choice. but it has actually been a very difficult journey, I have to say" then the line that explains all of it: "creating a company is almost like having a child. once you have the company, you have to feed it and nurse it and take care of it, even if it ruins you" and then the correspondent asks about the end of 2008. how did you get through that crisis? watch his face here he looks down. silence. for a few seconds the richest-man-to-be just doesn't speak "can we just break for a second?" years later, with both companies alive, one question about a few months in 2008 still stops him cold here's what he was carrying back then: SpaceX had just failed three launches in a row Tesla was burning cash in the middle of a financial crisis every dollar he made from PayPal was already inside the two companies the fortune you see today was built on a stretch of time when he was one bad month away from losing all of it people look at his net worth and see a number he looks at 2008 and still needs a minute
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ELON MUSK: "AT TIMES I'VE WONDERED IF IT WAS REALLY THE RIGHT CHOICE... IT HAS BEEN A VERY DIFFICULT JOURNEY"... AFTER A QUESTION ABOUT THE HARD TIMES OF 2008, ELON ASKED TO STOP THE INTERVIEW... IT'S STILL HARD FOR HIM TO TALK ABOUT a Danish TV crew sits down with Elon. Tesla is alive, SpaceX is flying. the worst is supposedly behind him the correspondent walks him through the money first after PayPal he had about $180M. the plan was simple: put half into the new companies, keep the other half. "that's not how it worked out" $100M in, and they still needed more. then the 2008 crisis hit "in the end I had to invest everything" "I was borrowing money from friends to pay the rent" "were you on the edge of bankruptcy?" "I didn't even own a house" then the question everyone thinks about: "you could have bought an island and sipped cocktails for the rest of your life. why take the risk?" he doesn't answer with a slogan. he pauses "at times I've wondered if it was really the right choice. but it has actually been a very difficult journey, I have to say" then the line that explains all of it: "creating a company is almost like having a child. once you have the company, you have to feed it and nurse it and take care of it, even if it ruins you" and then the correspondent asks about the end of 2008. how did you get through that crisis? watch his face here he looks down. silence. for a few seconds the richest-man-to-be just doesn't speak "can we just break for a second?" years later, with both companies alive, one question about a few months in 2008 still stops him cold here's what he was carrying back then: SpaceX had just failed three launches in a row Tesla was burning cash in the middle of a financial crisis every dollar he made from PayPal was already inside the two companies the fortune you see today was built on a stretch of time when he was one bad month away from losing all of it people look at his net worth and see a number he looks at 2008 and still needs a minute
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ELON MUSK: "MY BRAIN HURTS AND MY HEART HURTS. I WORKED 22 HOURS A DAY..." OTHERWISE TESLA WOULD HAVE DIED, AND ME ALONG WITH IT 2018. Axios on HBO sits down with Elon, and he looks nothing like the guy on stage tired eyes. hand on his face. long pauses they ask why this was the hardest year of his career he doesn't talk about the stock or the critics. he talks about the factory "Tesla really faced a severe threat of death due to the Model 3 production ramp" "the company was bleeding money like crazy" "if we didn't solve these problems in a very short period of time, we would die" how close? "single-digit weeks" think about what that means. a car company with billions in revenue, thousands of employees, a stock everyone argues about. and the real number that mattered was weeks of cash so what does the CEO do with single-digit weeks? 22 hours a day 7 days a week sleeping in the factory working the paint shop, general assembly, the body shop himself "do you ever worry about yourself imploding?" "yeah, absolutely. no one should put this many hours into work. this is not good" then the line that hits different: "it hurts my brain and my heart hurts" "this is not recommended for anyone. I just did it because if I didn't do it, Tesla, good chance, would die" here's the part people forget in the same year he described Tesla as weeks from death, Tesla posted a ~$312M profit in Q3 2018. the market had been betting on bankruptcy. the factory floor bet against it the comeback is on the stock chart. the price isn't no investor deck has a line for "founder sleeps under his desk for months". but that was the actual collateral behind the Model 3 he's not selling hustle here. he's warning you off it the stock chart shows the miracle. the factory floor shows the bill
A Storm of Cybercabs
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ELON MUSK: "MY BRAIN HURTS AND MY HEART HURTS. I WORKED 22 HOURS A DAY..." OTHERWISE TESLA WOULD HAVE DIED, AND ME ALONG WITH IT 2018. Axios on HBO sits down with Elon, and he looks nothing like the guy on stage tired eyes. hand on his face. long pauses they ask why this was the hardest year of his career he doesn't talk about the stock or the critics. he talks about the factory "Tesla really faced a severe threat of death due to the Model 3 production ramp" "the company was bleeding money like crazy" "if we didn't solve these problems in a very short period of time, we would die" how close? "single-digit weeks" think about what that means. a car company with billions in revenue, thousands of employees, a stock everyone argues about. and the real number that mattered was weeks of cash so what does the CEO do with single-digit weeks? 22 hours a day 7 days a week sleeping in the factory working the paint shop, general assembly, the body shop himself "do you ever worry about yourself imploding?" "yeah, absolutely. no one should put this many hours into work. this is not good" then the line that hits different: "it hurts my brain and my heart hurts" "this is not recommended for anyone. I just did it because if I didn't do it, Tesla, good chance, would die" here's the part people forget in the same year he described Tesla as weeks from death, Tesla posted a ~$312M profit in Q3 2018. the market had been betting on bankruptcy. the factory floor bet against it the comeback is on the stock chart. the price isn't no investor deck has a line for "founder sleeps under his desk for months". but that was the actual collateral behind the Model 3 he's not selling hustle here. he's warning you off it the stock chart shows the miracle. the factory floor shows the bill
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For nine days, Susan Smith cried on national TV and begged a stranger to bring her two little boys home. They were at the bottom of a lake a few miles away the whole time, and she was the one who put them there. On the night of October 25, 1994, she ran up to a house in Union, South Carolina, screaming. She said a Black man with a gun jumped into her car at a red light, made her get out, and drove off with her sons in the back seat. Michael was 3. Alex was 14 months old. The whole country went looking for a man who didn't exist. His sketch was on every channel. Hundreds of volunteers searched the woods on foot and on horseback, divers went into the lakes, and the town tied yellow ribbons on every tree. In the video below she tells the story herself. She says her son asked "Mom, where you going?" and she told him she loved him before the man slammed the door. "I just felt like such a failure." A week later she stands next to her husband David and begs whoever has her children to bring them home. On Good Morning America she says she has put her faith in the sheriff. The sheriff had stopped believing her almost from the start. The light she described only turns red at that empty intersection when another car is waiting on the cross street, and she swore there was no other car. She failed a lie detector test. And a rich man she was seeing had just written her a letter saying he didn't want children. The video ends on November 3. That morning she was on TV saying the hardest part was not knowing. That afternoon she confessed. She had let the car roll down a boat ramp into John D. Long Lake with both boys strapped into their car seats, and watched it float, flip over and sink. Divers had already searched that lake, close to shore. The car was 122 feet out, upside down. The jury needed about two and a half hours to convict her. She got 30 years to life. In November 2024 she told the parole board she would give anything to go back. David told them it wasn't a tragic mistake. The board said no, unanimously. On November 19 she goes before them again. Her lawyers said she meant to die in that car too and got out at the last second. So which was it: a broken mother who lost her nerve, or a woman who killed her sons for a man and then cried for the cameras for nine days?
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A CRAZY STORY ABOUT ELON MUSK AND HIS FATHER ERROL... AT ERROL'S 70TH BIRTHDAY, WORLD-FAMOUS STARS ASKED HIM "YOU SUPPORT TRUMP?" HE SAID YES. ELON TOLD HIM SUPPORTING TRUMP IS EVIL... "BUT NOW HE SUPPORTS TRUMP HIMSELF," ERROL RECALLS 2016. cape town. Errol Musk turns 70 Elon and Kimbal fly in and bring about 20 guests from america. Errol says they were all Hollywood. he names Scarlett Johansson, Jennifer Lawrence, Jon Favreau. plus one of the people behind Google the lunch goes on for hours then Favreau leans over with a big laugh: "we believe you support Trump" "yes. I support Trump" the whole table laughs. "that's stupid." "he's a terrible person" Errol: "no he's not" after the lunch Kimbal is furious. "I've never seen Kimbal so angry." his father embarrassed them in front of their friends and Elon says it straight: "it's evil to support Trump" now fast forward to 2024. Elon endorses Trump, puts a fortune behind the campaign, and jumps on stage at his rallies Errol's take, said with zero modesty: "he had been brainwashed by these Democrats. because now Elon supports Trump" the interviewer asks the obvious question: so did you two not speak for 7 years? not exactly. "we were on bad terms." happy birthday. happy christmas. that's it "he was never very happy. but now he's very happy" "so did he come to you and say: dad, I was wrong, you were right?" this is the part that got me: "no. I'm a dad. I don't want to put my kids through that, where they have to say sorry to me... obviously from what he's doing he should be saying something like that. but I would never put him through that" and then the ending december, after a big rocket launch in florida. a SpaceX party, about 250 people Elon stops the whole room, puts his arm around his father: "everybody. this is my dad. he taught me everything I know about engineering" from "it's evil" to "he taught me everything" in front of 250 SpaceX engineers fair warning: this is Errol's version. Elon has said very harsh things about his father over the years, and the family's history with Errol is far darker than one party story but notice what actually changed Elon's mind it wasn't an argument at a birthday lunch. it wasn't his father it was Trump himself in 2016 a table of Hollywood stars laughed at the idea of supporting him. 8 years later he'd won the white house twice and turned one of his loudest skeptics, the richest man on earth, into his biggest backer whatever you think of him, very few people have ever changed what the world thinks of them that hard, with their own actions in 2016 saying "I support Trump" got you laughed at in Cape Town in 2024 Elon was jumping on stage next to him the old man at the end of the table just saw it 8 years early in markets that's the whole game. being early feels exactly like being laughed at so who was really right at that lunch: the stars, or the guy they were laughing at?
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A CRAZY STORY ABOUT ELON MUSK AND HIS FATHER ERROL... AT ERROL'S 70TH BIRTHDAY, WORLD-FAMOUS STARS ASKED HIM "YOU SUPPORT TRUMP?" HE SAID YES. ELON TOLD HIM SUPPORTING TRUMP IS EVIL... "BUT NOW HE SUPPORTS TRUMP HIMSELF," ERROL RECALLS 2016. cape town. Errol Musk turns 70 Elon and Kimbal fly in and bring about 20 guests from america. Errol says they were all Hollywood. he names Scarlett Johansson, Jennifer Lawrence, Jon Favreau. plus one of the people behind Google the lunch goes on for hours then Favreau leans over with a big laugh: "we believe you support Trump" "yes. I support Trump" the whole table laughs. "that's stupid." "he's a terrible person" Errol: "no he's not" after the lunch Kimbal is furious. "I've never seen Kimbal so angry." his father embarrassed them in front of their friends and Elon says it straight: "it's evil to support Trump" now fast forward to 2024. Elon endorses Trump, puts a fortune behind the campaign, and jumps on stage at his rallies Errol's take, said with zero modesty: "he had been brainwashed by these Democrats. because now Elon supports Trump" the interviewer asks the obvious question: so did you two not speak for 7 years? not exactly. "we were on bad terms." happy birthday. happy christmas. that's it "he was never very happy. but now he's very happy" "so did he come to you and say: dad, I was wrong, you were right?" this is the part that got me: "no. I'm a dad. I don't want to put my kids through that, where they have to say sorry to me... obviously from what he's doing he should be saying something like that. but I would never put him through that" and then the ending december, after a big rocket launch in florida. a SpaceX party, about 250 people Elon stops the whole room, puts his arm around his father: "everybody. this is my dad. he taught me everything I know about engineering" from "it's evil" to "he taught me everything" in front of 250 SpaceX engineers fair warning: this is Errol's version. Elon has said very harsh things about his father over the years, and the family's history with Errol is far darker than one party story but notice what actually changed Elon's mind it wasn't an argument at a birthday lunch. it wasn't his father it was Trump himself in 2016 a table of Hollywood stars laughed at the idea of supporting him. 8 years later he'd won the white house twice and turned one of his loudest skeptics, the richest man on earth, into his biggest backer whatever you think of him, very few people have ever changed what the world thinks of them that hard, with their own actions in 2016 saying "I support Trump" got you laughed at in Cape Town in 2024 Elon was jumping on stage next to him the old man at the end of the table just saw it 8 years early in markets that's the whole game. being early feels exactly like being laughed at so who was really right at that lunch: the stars, or the guy they were laughing at?
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Phil Mickelson owed money to his Las Vegas gambling buddy, Billy Walters. Billy gave him a secret stock tip, Phil made $931,000 in a week and paid him back. Billy went to prison for 5 years. Phil was never charged. When Billy got out, he wrote a book about Phil. More than $1 billion in bets, by Billy's count. In the video below, Billy tells ESPN what would have kept him out of prison. Billy spent decades as one of the biggest sports bettors in America. Phil was his golf partner, his friend and a man who owed him money. July 2012. Phil owes Billy gambling money. Billy calls him and tells him to buy Dean Foods. Billy's information came from a Dean Foods board member. He owed Billy money too. A week later, the stock jumped 40%. Phil sold with more than $931,000 in profit. In September, he paid Billy back, partly with that money. The money went in a circle. Only one man went to prison. In 2016, the SEC named Phil a "relief defendant." That means he wasn't accused of anything, but he was holding money that wasn't his to keep. He paid back $1,037,029 and never admitted or denied a thing. In 2017, Billy was convicted and got 5 years. Phil never testified. "All Phil had to do was publicly say it. He refused," Billy wrote. While Billy was inside, his daughter died. He wrote that he still believes he could have saved her if he'd been on the outside. In 2023, his book came out. At least $1 billion wagered. At least $100 million lost. More than 1,115 bets over $100,000. Phil denied one claim: "I never bet on the Ryder Cup." $931,000: what Phil made on the tip. 5 years: what Billy got. $1 billion: what Billy says Phil bet. Phil kept his silence, his career and a reported $200 million LIV deal. Billy kept the receipts.
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ELON MUSK WAS BEATEN WITH SCHOOL BAGS AFTER CLASS AND HIS FATHER ERROL SAW NOTHING WRONG WITH IT... A CRAZY STORY. ELON SPENT 2 WEEKS IN THE HOSPITAL the interviewer says it straight: "Elon has always talked about being badly bullied at school" Errol doesn't even pause "no he wasn't. he wasn't bullied at school" "so he's lying when he says that?" and then Errol explains his idea of normal "if you do well, you get beat. they wait for you after school, they hit you with their satchels. that's standard. I don't call that bullying" bullying, in his words, is only when a big kid picks on a small kid who can't defend himself then he tells the story himself a boy in Elon's grade had just lost his father. suicide. the boy was the one who found him Elon, in grade 8, said to that boy: "your father was stupid" Errol's comment on it is the line I can't stop thinking about: "Elon had a tendency to say that. he still does" the boy was much smaller than Elon. he pushed him down two flights of stairs, from the second floor to the ground floor. then ran down after him, found a piece of wood and kept hitting him 2 weeks in the hospital Errol says he went to the police. the police came to the school, the headmaster explained what Elon had said, and they refused to open a case "what Elon said was sufficient cause" that's the father's version, told calmly, decades later Elon's version is different. in his biography the beating is worse, and when he came home his father took the other boy's side and made him stand there while he was called an idiot. Kimbal has said Elon was beaten so badly he was unrecognizable so we have two stories about the same staircase in one, a kid nearly gets killed and nobody protects him in the other, a kid says something cruel and gets what was coming and here's the uncomfortable part: Errol might be right about one thing "he still does" look at grown-up Elon. "go f*** yourself" to advertisers live on stage. calling people idiots on X in front of 200M+ followers. he never lost the habit of saying the one thing you're not supposed to say the difference is that at 14 it cost him two weeks in a hospital bed at 55 it costs him almost nothing. sometimes it even moves the stock the boy who got thrown down the stairs for his mouth grew up and bought the biggest megaphone on earth
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Jordan Belfort, ordered to repay his victims $110,400,000, says he chose an FBI wire over 30 years in prison. When it was time to record a close friend, he warned him with a note: "I'm wired." The friend betrayed him and handed the note to the FBI. In the video below, he explains what that note cost him. The movie showed the money he made. It skipped the money people lost. Stratton Oakmont had over 1,000 brokers cold-calling ordinary people. They pushed cheap stocks Stratton secretly controlled, the price went up, and insiders sold at the top. The clients were left holding shares that soon were worth almost nothing. 1,513 people lost an estimated $200,000,000. By 2013, they had gotten back about $11,000,000, most of it from selling property the government seized. Belfort wasn't the only one talking. His partner Danny Porush, the man Jonah Hill's character is loosely based on, was cooperating too. The prosecutor said the government needed both of them, "but to do so separately without each other's knowledge." After that note, Belfort says, he stopped protecting anyone. One of the men he helped prosecutors build a case against was Steve Madden, the man behind one of America's best-known shoe brands. Stratton took Madden's company public in 1993. The SEC said Belfort secretly kept a big stake in it through a fake sale of his shares to a company Madden owned. Madden also helped Stratton rig 22 IPOs. He got shares before the public, sold them back to Stratton at a set profit, and Stratton's brokers resold the same shares to clients at higher prices. He had to give back $5,183,450 and pay a $1,000,000 fine. Madden had been Porush's best friend since childhood. He was sentenced to 41 months and served about 31. Belfort served 22. Madden later said Belfort "ratted me out to save himself." Last year, the company with his name on it brought in $2,534,000,000. Belfort tried to save one friend and got sold out. He didn't try to save his partner's best friend, and that man's name is still on shoe boxes across America.
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ELON MUSK ON HIS OWN FATHER: "MY FATHER IS A TERRIBLE HUMAN BEING. HE WILL HAVE A CAREFULLY THOUGHT-OUT PLAN OF EVIL. ALMOST EVERY CRIME YOU CAN POSSIBLY THINK OF, HE HAS DONE"... AND HERE'S WHAT ERROL MUSK (ELON'S DAD) THINKS ABOUT IT 2017. Rolling Stone. the richest man on the planet sits down for an interview and ends up crying about his dad "he's good at making life miserable, that's for sure" "I don't know how someone becomes like he is" and one detail most people missed: Elon and his first wife Justine promised each other their kids would never be introduced to him years later Errol sits across from an interviewer who reads every one of those lines back to him he doesn't get angry. he doesn't cry. he folds his arms and says: "they must have caught him on a bad day" "I've never actually planned anything evil that I can think of" "I've met all these kids. when they were small" and about Justine: "the less said the better" then he gives his explanation, and this is the part that stuck with me "it depends how your kids see you" "I didn't suffer fools. if something serious was going to be destroyed by the action of a fool, I would not let it happen" "they were very aware that I was somebody who acted very quickly in the event of things going rotten" read that again and tell me who it sounds like because that's almost word for word how people describe working for Elon the all-nighters. the instant firings. the "demon mode" his own biographer wrote about. 80% of Twitter's staff gone in a few months the son calls it evil when the father does it the world calls it genius when the son does it to be clear: Errol's version is Errol's version. Elon, Kimbal and other family members have described a very different childhood, and the accusations against him are serious but there's an uncomfortable question in this clip that has nothing to do with family drama how much of the most valuable founder on earth was built by the person he says he hates most? some kids spend their whole life running from their father some build a $400B+ fortune using his playbook and still call it evil maybe both are the same kid
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ELON MUSK ON HIS OWN FATHER: "MY FATHER IS A TERRIBLE HUMAN BEING. HE WILL HAVE A CAREFULLY THOUGHT-OUT PLAN OF EVIL. ALMOST EVERY CRIME YOU CAN POSSIBLY THINK OF, HE HAS DONE"... AND HERE'S WHAT ERROL MUSK (ELON'S DAD) THINKS ABOUT IT 2017. Rolling Stone. the richest man on the planet sits down for an interview and ends up crying about his dad "he's good at making life miserable, that's for sure" "I don't know how someone becomes like he is" and one detail most people missed: Elon and his first wife Justine promised each other their kids would never be introduced to him years later Errol sits across from an interviewer who reads every one of those lines back to him he doesn't get angry. he doesn't cry. he folds his arms and says: "they must have caught him on a bad day" "I've never actually planned anything evil that I can think of" "I've met all these kids. when they were small" and about Justine: "the less said the better" then he gives his explanation, and this is the part that stuck with me "it depends how your kids see you" "I didn't suffer fools. if something serious was going to be destroyed by the action of a fool, I would not let it happen" "they were very aware that I was somebody who acted very quickly in the event of things going rotten" read that again and tell me who it sounds like because that's almost word for word how people describe working for Elon the all-nighters. the instant firings. the "demon mode" his own biographer wrote about. 80% of Twitter's staff gone in a few months the son calls it evil when the father does it the world calls it genius when the son does it to be clear: Errol's version is Errol's version. Elon, Kimbal and other family members have described a very different childhood, and the accusations against him are serious but there's an uncomfortable question in this clip that has nothing to do with family drama how much of the most valuable founder on earth was built by the person he says he hates most? some kids spend their whole life running from their father some build a $400B+ fortune using his playbook and still call it evil maybe both are the same kid
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ELON MUSK AND HIS BROTHER KIMBAL USED TO FIGHT RIGHT ON THE OFFICE FLOOR OVER COMPANY STRATEGY... AND KIMBAL TELLS THE STORY WITH NOTHING BUT LOVE FOR ELON mid-90s. Zip2, their first startup. two brothers, one tiny office, no money they slept there. showered at the YMCA. and when they disagreed on strategy, they didn't book a meeting "I'm a very strong-willed person. my brother's a very strong-willed person... well of course we should fight it out" one fight went further than the others Elon raised his fist to punch Kimbal in the face Kimbal had no way to defend himself so he grabbed the fist and tore a piece of skin off it Elon had to go get a tetanus shot that's funny for about five seconds. then the interviewer asks about Asperger's, and Kimbal gets honest the upside: "he's the greatest engineer in the world. I don't think anyone comes close, frankly" the downside: "he doesn't really have an empathy gene" you have a life? a marriage? "how is that relevant? we have work to do" and then the line that hit me hardest: "even with him and I, I have to speak out loud: this is how I am feeling. then he can process it. but I can't expect him to feel it" his own brother has to translate his emotions into words, like reporting data, just so Elon can understand them and he still ends with: "I've grown up with him and we love each other, and it works" no bitterness. no "he was a monster". just a guy who knows exactly who his brother is and decided to stay here's why this matters beyond family drama in 1999 Compaq bought Zip2 for ~$307M. the brothers who fought on the floor walked away millionaires, and that money became the seed for everything Elon did next Kimbal later sat on the Tesla board for years most co-founder fights end with a lawyer and a buyout. theirs ended with a tetanus shot and 30 years of working together the lesson isn't "fight your co-founder" it's that the same trait that makes someone impossible to work with can be the one that builds the company. and the people who last next to that kind of person are the ones who stop expecting them to feel, and start telling them what they feel
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ELON MUSK AND HIS BROTHER KIMBAL USED TO FIGHT RIGHT ON THE OFFICE FLOOR OVER COMPANY STRATEGY... AND KIMBAL TELLS THE STORY WITH NOTHING BUT LOVE FOR ELON mid-90s. Zip2, their first startup. two brothers, one tiny office, no money they slept there. showered at the YMCA. and when they disagreed on strategy, they didn't book a meeting "I'm a very strong-willed person. my brother's a very strong-willed person... well of course we should fight it out" one fight went further than the others Elon raised his fist to punch Kimbal in the face Kimbal had no way to defend himself so he grabbed the fist and tore a piece of skin off it Elon had to go get a tetanus shot that's funny for about five seconds. then the interviewer asks about Asperger's, and Kimbal gets honest the upside: "he's the greatest engineer in the world. I don't think anyone comes close, frankly" the downside: "he doesn't really have an empathy gene" you have a life? a marriage? "how is that relevant? we have work to do" and then the line that hit me hardest: "even with him and I, I have to speak out loud: this is how I am feeling. then he can process it. but I can't expect him to feel it" his own brother has to translate his emotions into words, like reporting data, just so Elon can understand them and he still ends with: "I've grown up with him and we love each other, and it works" no bitterness. no "he was a monster". just a guy who knows exactly who his brother is and decided to stay here's why this matters beyond family drama in 1999 Compaq bought Zip2 for ~$307M. the brothers who fought on the floor walked away millionaires, and that money became the seed for everything Elon did next Kimbal later sat on the Tesla board for years most co-founder fights end with a lawyer and a buyout. theirs ended with a tetanus shot and 30 years of working together the lesson isn't "fight your co-founder" it's that the same trait that makes someone impossible to work with can be the one that builds the company. and the people who last next to that kind of person are the ones who stop expecting them to feel, and start telling them what they feel
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ELON MUSK: "IF THE FOURTH LAUNCH HADN'T WORKED, I THINK DEATH WOULD HAVE BEEN INEVITABLE"... "FOR ME TO GIVE UP, I'D HAVE TO BE DEAD OR COMPLETELY INCAPACITATED" he's not talking about himself. he's talking about spacex 60 minutes, 2012. scott pelley takes him back to the worst stretch of his life falcon 1, spacex's first rocket: launch 1, 2006: fails launch 2, 2007: fails launch 3, august 2008: fails pelley asks the obvious question. after the third failure in a row, did you think about packing it in? "never" "why not?" "i don't ever give up. i mean, i'd have to be dead or completely incapacitated" the third failure came down to a timing glitch measured in seconds. so 8 weeks later he bets the whole company on one more rocket and here's the part people skip. he didn't have a fifth one "if that fourth launch hadn't worked, that would have been it. we did not have the resources for a fifth launch" "death would have been, i think, inevitable" september 28, 2008. launch 4 reaches orbit. the first privately built liquid-fuel rocket ever to do it now the napkin math: his own money in spacex back then: ~$100M rockets it paid for: 4 rockets that worked: 1 spacex market cap today: ~$2T the most valuable rocket company on earth sits on top of one launch that could have gone the other way and at the end pelley says it's a tricky business. elon just nods: "i wish it wasn't so hard" everyone talks about the $2T. nobody talks about the version of 2008 where rocket #4 blows up and spacex is a footnote the gap between those two worlds was one launch
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ELON MUSK: "IF THE FOURTH LAUNCH HADN'T WORKED, I THINK DEATH WOULD HAVE BEEN INEVITABLE"... "FOR ME TO GIVE UP, I'D HAVE TO BE DEAD OR COMPLETELY INCAPACITATED" he's not talking about himself. he's talking about spacex 60 minutes, 2012. scott pelley takes him back to the worst stretch of his life falcon 1, spacex's first rocket: launch 1, 2006: fails launch 2, 2007: fails launch 3, august 2008: fails pelley asks the obvious question. after the third failure in a row, did you think about packing it in? "never" "why not?" "i don't ever give up. i mean, i'd have to be dead or completely incapacitated" the third failure came down to a timing glitch measured in seconds. so 8 weeks later he bets the whole company on one more rocket and here's the part people skip. he didn't have a fifth one "if that fourth launch hadn't worked, that would have been it. we did not have the resources for a fifth launch" "death would have been, i think, inevitable" september 28, 2008. launch 4 reaches orbit. the first privately built liquid-fuel rocket ever to do it now the napkin math: his own money in spacex back then: ~$100M rockets it paid for: 4 rockets that worked: 1 spacex market cap today: ~$2T the most valuable rocket company on earth sits on top of one launch that could have gone the other way and at the end pelley says it's a tricky business. elon just nods: "i wish it wasn't so hard" everyone talks about the $2T. nobody talks about the version of 2008 where rocket #4 blows up and spacex is a footnote the gap between those two worlds was one launch
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ELON MUSK'S CHILDHOOD WAS PSYCHOLOGICALLY BRUTAL, BUT HE RODE IN ROLLS-ROYCES AND PRIVATE PLANES... AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHY HE COULD BET EVERYTHING you probably know the dark half of the story bullied at school. beaten so badly he ended up in hospital. a father Elon himself has called "a terrible human being" now here's the half his father tells an interviewer asks Errol Musk: did Elon just never care about money? "yes, yes, yes" then he describes what Elon grew up with: a big house in one of pretoria's best suburbs by age 7, 8, 9, Errol had moved on from Mercedes to Rolls-Royce. "so they only rode in Rolls-Royce cars" want to go somewhere? you get in a twin-engine plane that belongs to you, land on your own airstrip, walk to your lodge learned to ski in europe before they were 10 and then he compares it to his own childhood no bed until he was 10. he slept on a couch. the family lived in two rooms of a boarding house his conclusion is the whole post: "when you start like i did, you get money and you think: i should keep this and spend it as slowly as possible" "but when you grow up like Elon... what the hell, you can make it again. you're never ever gonna go down" and the line that stings: "to them, hardship was when they ran out of fillet steak" now look at 2002 eBay buys PayPal. Elon walks away with ~$180M before tax a guy who grew up poor buys bonds and a house and never works again Elon puts ~$100M into SpaceX and ~$70M into Tesla. by the end of 2008, by his own account, he's borrowing from friends to pay rent that's not courage the way we usually mean it. it's a different relationship with zero your risk tolerance isn't just math. it's memory the people who've been poor feel the floor. the people who haven't don't believe it exists fair warning: this is Errol's version. Elon has publicly pushed back on the "rich kid" story and says he arrived in north america with almost nothing so which one is it: did he bet everything because he was brave, or because he never believed he could actually lose?
The new Tesla Roadster accelerates faster than a fighter jet taking off from an aircraft carrier
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ELON MUSK'S CHILDHOOD WAS PSYCHOLOGICALLY BRUTAL, BUT HE RODE IN ROLLS-ROYCES AND PRIVATE PLANES... AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHY HE COULD BET EVERYTHING you probably know the dark half of the story bullied at school. beaten so badly he ended up in hospital. a father Elon himself has called "a terrible human being" now here's the half his father tells an interviewer asks Errol Musk: did Elon just never care about money? "yes, yes, yes" then he describes what Elon grew up with: a big house in one of pretoria's best suburbs by age 7, 8, 9, Errol had moved on from Mercedes to Rolls-Royce. "so they only rode in Rolls-Royce cars" want to go somewhere? you get in a twin-engine plane that belongs to you, land on your own airstrip, walk to your lodge learned to ski in europe before they were 10 and then he compares it to his own childhood no bed until he was 10. he slept on a couch. the family lived in two rooms of a boarding house his conclusion is the whole post: "when you start like i did, you get money and you think: i should keep this and spend it as slowly as possible" "but when you grow up like Elon... what the hell, you can make it again. you're never ever gonna go down" and the line that stings: "to them, hardship was when they ran out of fillet steak" now look at 2002 eBay buys PayPal. Elon walks away with ~$180M before tax a guy who grew up poor buys bonds and a house and never works again Elon puts ~$100M into SpaceX and ~$70M into Tesla. by the end of 2008, by his own account, he's borrowing from friends to pay rent that's not courage the way we usually mean it. it's a different relationship with zero your risk tolerance isn't just math. it's memory the people who've been poor feel the floor. the people who haven't don't believe it exists fair warning: this is Errol's version. Elon has publicly pushed back on the "rich kid" story and says he arrived in north america with almost nothing so which one is it: did he bet everything because he was brave, or because he never believed he could actually lose?
The new Tesla Roadster accelerates faster than a fighter jet taking off from an aircraft carrier
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Jordan Belfort was ordered to pay his victims $110,400,000. He scammed a 60-year-old retiree out of $250,000, forcing him to work for the rest of his life to pay off his debts. The man got back just $8,000. Watch what he does when 60 Minutes asks if he's hiding his income. Belfort is the stockbroker Leonardo DiCaprio played in The Wolf of Wall Street. He served 22 months for fraud. His firm, Stratton Oakmont, cold-called ordinary people, pushed them into worthless stocks, then dumped its own shares on them. In 2003, the court gave him a simple rule: half of his gross income goes to the 1,513 investors he defrauded. Here's how that went, according to prosecutors: Paid back, mostly from property he forfeited: $12,800,000 Made on speeches from 2013 to 2015: at least $9,000,000 Still owed in 2018: $97,000,000 Prosecutors say he kept all of the speech money. Belfort says the 50% rule ended with his probation in 2009, and he disputes the government's numbers. A federal judge looked at his finances and said, "It seems like he has some spare change lying around." The pitch never changed. A confident voice promises you a shortcut to money. His victims heard it on the phone in the '90s. Today it comes with a ticket price. Anyone who owes his victims $97,000,000 shouldn't get to sell you the pitch that made them victims.
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HARD TO BELIEVE, BUT ELON MUSK'S SCHOOL THOUGHT HE WAS "RETARDED," SAYS HIS FATHER ERROL MUSK... YEARS LATER EVERYONE REALIZED IT WAS GENIUS pretoria, south africa, around 1979. Elon is 7 or 8, in grade two the headmaster calls his father and says they need to talk Errol drives over sure he knows what it is. Elon had a habit: adults would see him with some huge book and ask if he was just looking at the pictures. Elon would tell them "no, of course not, stupid" so Errol expects to hear his son insulted a teacher instead he walks into the office and finds the headmaster and an older teacher wringing her hands the headmaster says it straight: "we think your son is retarded" the evidence? everyone in class is taking notes. Elon sits and stares out the window the teacher has to walk up and push him on the shoulder before he even notices her she asks what he's doing he says the trees are getting their leaves Errol: "well, that's reasonable. i don't see anything wrong with that" the school: something is wrong with him their fix was a hearing test. his hearing was fine. Errol moved him to a private school and, in his words, "we never had any more problems" now look at what that "problem" actually was a kid who goes so deep into one thing that the rest of the room disappears his father says it never went away. even today, he says, you can be rude to Elon and it doesn't land. it just bounces off the same trait the school flagged as a defect is the one that later taught him to code by himself and sell his first video game at 12 had him reading the encyclopedia when he ran out of books built a rocket company out of nothing but obsession the school wasn't wrong about the data. he really wasn't paying attention to them they were wrong about the price markets do this all the time. the thing that looks broken is just optimized for something you're not measuring the school graded attention. the world ended up paying for focus
It’s that easy
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