HSBC Group Chief Executive Georges Elhedery must have raised a few eyebrows on Tuesday with his bullish suggestion (albeit including a maybe and a probably in there) that "Hormuz, probably in five years time, may become redundant". 1/4
youtube.com/watch?v=nnoHw5V4…
Basically the CEO is asking investors to bet there will be a level of regional stability by 2031 and then beyond that doesn't appear very likely at the moment. 3/4
@StephenGrootes from @Radio702 kindly invited me onto the Money Show last night to unpack this idea and look at some of the reasons this might be too much of an exhuberant idea and what is at stake. 4/4 #StraitofHormuz #shipping #maritimesecurity #HSBC #infrastructure
The ISS has just published my latest article examining some of the growing challenges confronting Mauritius over the decolonisation of the Chagos Archipelago, while the prospect of Chagossians returning soon appears increasingly remote. #ChagosIslands #Mauritius #DiegoGarcia
ISS Today > Has Mauritius lost its agency in the Chagos deal?
By offering Britain a 99-year lease to secure decolonisation, Mauritius bound its sovereignty to shifting great power priorities.
issafrica.org/iss-today/has-…
Without a stronger regional response, Middle Eastern disruption will continue to make Southern Africa more important to global shipping and energy markets, but without making the region much more secure, prosperous or resilient to that same disruption.
#MaritimeSecurity
ISS Today > Middle Eastern maritime chokepoints: no windfall for Southern Africa
Disruptions are making Southern Africa more important to global shipping and energy markets without making the region more prosperous.
issafrica.org/iss-today/midd…
Timothy Walker retweeted
[ON AIR] The Global Briefing:
Turkish commandos have retaken the Lutuf after it was seized by Somali pirates
In Nepal more than 900 people have died and over 4,200 remain missing following catastrophic flooding.
The UAE says it intercepted a drone approaching from Iran, while denying reports that its Al Menhad airbase was attacked.
Timothy Walker, an international relations specialist on #TheNationalBriefing #sabcnews
Timothy Walker retweeted
Join us this Friday for a seminar with Martin Ewi, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Security Studies. Mr Ewi joins us as part of our African Peace & Conflict PG course we offer each year. This course invites guests who are experts in peace & conflict on the continent.
Timothy Walker retweeted
2nd piracy hijacking off Somalia this week.
Windward has identified the vessel as the SIBU 1, matching today's UKMTO warning, 136nm east of Al Mukalla. The tanker just changed its AIS destination field to: "PRIRATE ONBOARD HEL"
An apparent distress call, typed straight into the ship's own AIS data. Sanctioned. Recent MMSI change. Dark activity. Flagged high-risk in the Windward platform since 2023. The risk signature is unmistakable.
Follows the hijacking of LUTUF (Aug 17), possibly carrying Turkish military-linked cargo, a possible reason for Turkey's reported drone strike on hijackers the next day.
Where this risk is concentrating and why: okt.to/dEUnGJ
Timothy Walker retweeted
Panama Canal to cut daily transits as El Niño grips region ft.trib.al/mtUMIDR
How oil is being smuggled through Strait of Hormuz despite risk of attack
#TheMoneyShow
buff.ly/SttYgXD
Timothy Walker retweeted
How oil is being smuggled through Strait of Hormuz despite risk of attack
#TheMoneyShow #StraitofHormuz #oilprices #Iran
buff.ly/SttYgXD
Timothy Walker retweeted
🚨🇦🇺 Two of Australia's subsea internet cables, Indigo West and Indigo Central, were damaged last weekend inside the Submarine Cable Protection Zone off Perth. Authorities cited "very suspicious activity from a vessel near the location."
Windward's multi-sensor analysis surfaced one vessel whose movements align with the location and timing of the damage. Here is what each sensor saw:
AIS behavior first: The vessel entered Australia's EEZ on July 28, anchored off Perth, and loitered for nearly two weeks. On July 31 her reported ETA changed to January 1, 2027, a placeholder value typical of vessels with no genuine port call intent. Through August 8–9, the window in which the cables were damaged, her track shows repeated erratic crossings over the cable corridor.
Then the satellites: Windward EO satellite imagery captured her on August 3 at 02:12 UTC, roughly 11 km west of Perth, off Marmion Marine Park. On August 8 at 21:42 UTC, SAR imagery placed her directly on the cable route.
Any one of these signals can be argued with. An AIS track can be dismissed as noise. An EO frame proves presence, not behavior. A SAR return is a bright smudge on a purple field. Stack them and the ambiguity collapses: three independent sensors, one vessel, on the cables, at the time of the cuts.
Fewer than 20 cables carry roughly 99% of Australia's internet traffic. Protecting them starts with knowing which vessel was there, and being able to prove it three different ways.
Timothy Walker retweeted
Chinese state giants pull VLCCs from Red Sea as safety trumps commercial gains
⚓️Cosco Shipping and China Merchants are withdrawing from Red Sea trade, prioritising safety over expected diplomatic privileges
⚓️Outbound tankers laden with Saudi crude secured Houthi clearance to leave, but inbound vessels have turned back or rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope
⚓️The pullback may foreshadow a broader reconfiguration of crude trade flows
lloydslist.com/articles/2026…
"It's something that's increasingly happening. We are seeing an increasingly number of ships prepared to take the risk, provided they think they can not be seen."
- Timothy Walker, senior researcher on maritime security - Institute for Security Studies
#TheMoneyShow
buff.ly/4sGRUDS
Timothy Walker retweeted
Operation Copper helped position SA as a regional security leader when Somali #piracy threatened the Mozambique Channel in 2011.
But the piracy threat quickly waned – and given the SA Navy’s resource shortages, the operation now has little clear value. ISS Today by Tim Walker
Timothy Walker retweeted
Les patrouilles navales conjointes qui avaient aidé à contenir la #piraterie somalienne sont affaiblies par la crise en mer Rouge et dans le détroit d’Ormuz.
Pendant ce temps, la pêche illégale continue de dévaster les moyens de subsistance côtiers — un problème non résolu qui pousse les populations vers la piraterie. 𝘐𝘚𝘚 𝘛𝘰𝘥𝘢𝘺 @timwalker919 issafrica.org/fr/iss-today/r…
Timothy Walker retweeted
France's Marine Nationale (Navy) Jeanne d'Arc 2026 task group, comprising Landing Helicopter Dock Dixmude and stealth frigate Aconit, departs Table Bay on Friday, having spent a week enjoying the hospitality of Cape Town. Bon voyage!
@MarineNationale @FranceCapeTown #SouthAfrica
Timothy Walker retweeted
Antarctica is warming fast – and the geopolitical competition is heating up with it. Does South Africa have the strategy to match?
Read our Southern Africa Report by Daniela Marggraff
issafrica.org/research/south…
Timothy Walker retweeted
🇦🇺 was proud to support @issafrica dialogues on maritime security & governance. Today’s session highlighted the growing importance of the Cape of Good Hope to global shipping. Australia and South Africa will continue working towards a peaceful & prosperous Indian Ocean region.






























