Tom Matta

Lee Kuan Yew on China Q: Will China become a democracy? "No, China is not going to become a liberal democracy; if it did, it would collapse. Of that I am quite sure, and the Chinese intelligentsia also understands that. If you believe that there is going to be a revolution of some sort in China for democracy, you are wrong. Where are the students of Tiananmen now? They are irrelevant. The Chinese people want a revived China. Can it be a parliamentary democracy? This is a possibility in the villages and small towns. The Chinese fear chaos and will always err on the side of caution. It will be a long evolutionary process, but it is possible to contemplate such changes. Transportation and communications have become so much faster and cheaper. The Chinese people will be exposed to other systems and cultures and know other societies through travel, through the Internet and through smart phones. One thing is for sure: the present system will not remain unchanged for the next 50 years. To achieve the modernization of China, her communist leaders are prepared to try every method, except for democracy with one person and one vote in a multiparty system. Their two main reasons are their belief that the Communist Party of China must have a monopoly on power to ensure stability and their deep fear of instability in a multiparty free-for-all, which would lead to a loss of control by the center over the provinces. To ask China to become a democracy, when in its 5,000 years of recorded history it never counted heads — all rulers ruled by right of being the emperor; if you disagree, you chop off heads, not count heads." Q: The relationship between the United States and China has now become the most important geopolitical issue of this century. How do the two sides engage with one another? "From the Chinese side, in a very pragmatic, almost cold blooded and clinical fashion. On the American side, there’s been some vacillation. First China is a strategic adversary, then China is a strategic partner, then China is a stakeholder, and then China is not carrying its weight." Q: What impact is China’s rise having on its neighbors in Asia? "China’s strategy for Southeast Asia is fairly simple: China tells the region, 'Come grow with me.' At the same time, China’s leaders want to convey the impression that China’s rise is inevitable and that countries will need to decide if they want to be China’s friend or foe. China is also willing to calibrate its engagement to get what it wants or express its displeasure" Q: Will they be able to create the domestic demand that’s necessary as they find exports reduced? "Slowly. But in the meantime they’re keeping the economy by an enormous expenditure on infrastructure in the west — high-speed roads, high-speed railways, airports, telephone lines, bringing water from the south up to the north where it’s arid and dry, huge, enormous, mammoth projects. That keeps it going. " Q: How will China’s behavior toward other countries change if China becomes the dominant Asian power? "At the core of their mind-set is their world before colonization and the exploitation and humiliation that brought. In Chinese, China means Middle Kingdom, recalling a world in which they were dominant in the region. The concern of America is what kind of world they will face when China is able to contest their pre-eminence. Many medium and small countries in Asia are also concerned. They are uneasy that China may want to resume the imperial status it had in earlier centuries and have misgivings about being treated as vassal states having to send tribute to China as they used to in past centuries. The Chinese tell us that countries big or small are equal; [that they] are not a hegemon. But when we do something they do not like, they say you have made 1.3 billion people unhappy. So please know your place " Q: What is China’s strategy for becoming No. 1? "The Chinese have concluded that their best strategy is to build a strong and prosperous future, and use their huge and increasingly highly skilled and educated workers to outsell and outbuild all others. The Chinese have calculated that they need 30 to 50 years of peace and quiet to catch up, build up their system, and change it from the communist system to the market system. I believe the Chinese leadership has learned that if you compete with America in armaments, you will lose. You will bankrupt yourself. So, keep your head down, and smile for 40 or 50 years." Q: What are the major hurdles in executing that strategy? "There will be enormous stresses because of the size of the country and the intractable nature of the problems: the poor infrastructure, the weak institutions, the wrong systems that they have installed. Straight-line extrapolations from [China’s] remarkable record are not realistic. China has more handicaps going forward and more obstacles to overcome than most observers recognize. Chief among these are their problems of governance: the absence of the rule of law, which in today’s China is closer to the rule of the emperor; a huge country in which little emperors across a vast expanse exercise great local influence; cultural habits that limit imagination and creativity, rewarding conformity; a language that is exceedingly difficult for foreigners to learn sufficiently to embrace China and be embraced by its society; and severe constraints on its ability to attract and assimilate talent from other [countries]. China will inevitably catch up to the U.S. in absolute GDP. But its creativity may never match America’s because its culture does not permit a free exchange and contest of ideas. How else to explain how a country with four times as many people as America — and presumably four times as many talented people — does not come up with technological breakthroughs?" Q: How should one assess Xi Jinping? "He has had a tougher life than [his predecessor] Hu Jintao. His father was rusticated, and so was he. He took it in stride, and worked his way up. It has not been smooth sailing for him. His life experiences must have hardened him. He is reserved — not in the sense that he will not talk to you, but in the sense that he will not betray his likes and dislikes. There is always a pleasant smile on his face, whether or not you have said something that annoyed him. He has iron in his soul, more than Hu Jintao, who ascended the ranks without experiencing the trials and tribulations that Xi endured. He is a person with enormous emotional stability who does not allow his personal misfortunes or sufferings to affect his judgment. He is impressive."