Determining what the future consensus will be today. No AI slop prose.
Joined December 2014
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Where did the notion that "sales is the only thing that matters" in American culture come from?
It predates Trump of course, but got stronger with him.
It was not always true! The Founding Fathers were not sales-y types, they were intellectuals!
Classic - when everyone on FinTwit was jovially chatting all the $BABA they owned, Chinese stocks were doomed to slaughter.
Now the Chinese government stepped in and Chinese stocks may have bottomed, no interest at all...
Got short $ASST?
(I don't recommend max short right now until the expected risk rally of Monday-Tuesday transpires, but if it uproariously goes up the next two days it's an amazing short.)
I think clearly the Dem frontrunner right now is Ossoff and not Newsom or AOC. I had this thought and then saw the betting markets and see it's so obvious they agree with me. And I think Ossoff is a pretty good candidate. I think he would beat Vance.
Well, now we have a trading high to short oil against.
Short any rallies that don't take out that high.
In 2006, Republicans got beaten in the midterms, and you'd expect that to strengthen their odds in 2008. Yet they had to deal with term limits on the incumbent, an unresolved and in fact escalated war (remember Bush's 2007 "surge" in Iraq?), and then real economic headwinds led to a big Democrat victory in 2008 with Obama.
Sound familiar?
I thought about it truly a lot and I'm confident Dems do well this election.
The only potential issue that Republicans perceive they have is hatred against transgenders. However, it's not like being transgender is banned under Trump, in fact not much on it has changed. So if they are single issue haters on that, logically voting Republican shouldn't even be motivating.
If the market big sells until Tuesday night, I want to be buying.
But if the market is big up Monday on peace deal rumors, I think I want to be selling.
Probably works in the short term, should go up to double digits at least in "scare" moments on election night.
Tonight is shaping up to be an epic night of trick or treating.
Saturday night, no rain, cold but not too cold.
Already had some come at 445, before I even put my costume on, lol.
One possiblity!
And would mean "buy the election resolution" turns out poorly...
Here's a thought.
In reversal candles, most often we see most of the candle in one direction and then the reversal happens in the last part.
For example, a 1 hour candle that will have a big wick on the top usually goes up 3* 15 mins in small candles and then one huge 15min candle takes them all out.
We had an example of this last week, 3 bull days wiped out with 2 bear days - one of them being the real action.
The interesting thing about this is this theory scales up. So it's possible if we were to get an annul version of this all the selling would come in the last quarter.
By that theory, SPX could lose 1000 points before EoY.
Just a theory, we will do actual analysis for the trades.
