Victor Fleischer

Who actually gets rich if Anthropic lists at $2 trillion? The S-1 filed on Monday lets us answer from the filing itself. The reported target is $1.5T to $2T, listing the week of November 16. The filing implies about 16.9B fully diluted shares. So $2T works out to roughly $118 a share. The cap table at $2T: - $199B for the 7 controlling co-founders, about 10% - $28B for Ben Mann, if his stake matches theirs - $100B for the Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, 5% - $331B in employee options and RSUs, about 17% , That pool covers about 5,300 employees, an average of $62M each. - But when you joined matters enormously. The S-1 shows how much equity was granted each year, and at what price. [ Headcount went from about 300 to 500 in late 2023, to 940 at end 2024, to 5,300 now. Match the two, and here is roughly how many people made what at $2T: - $110M to $400M each: ~300 to 500 people hired by 2023 - $200M to $300M each: ~440 to 640 hired in 2024 - $70M to $95M each: ~1,360 hired in 2025 - $10M to $20M each: ~3,000 hired in 2026 So about 940 people hired by the end of 2024 average nine figures. Everyone hired since averages eight figures. The 2024 class is the surprise. That year Anthropic granted 1.28B options at $1.30 a share. At $118, that one year of grants is worth about $133B. Then there is the tender. In April, holders could sell at $25.91 a share. Investors lined up $6B, but only $4.7B sold. Weeks later, Series H priced at $58.90 a share. At $2T, the people who held would be up 4.6x. And Dario and Daniela Amodei were among the sellers. The 7 founders have pledged 80% of their equity to charity. That is about $159B at $2T. But the S-1 says the pledges are not legally binding.