Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics) header
Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics) profile picture
Joined September 2010
Photo by Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics)Photo by Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics)Photo by Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics)Photo by Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics)Photo by Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics)Photo by Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics)Photo by Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics)Photo by Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics)Photo by Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics)Photo by Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics)
Turns out EAs got hands.
Replying to @lymanstoneky
NOTE: I was immediately PWN'd by the EAs. My 5x estimate was wrong. Correct estimate is probably 2-3x, but possibly as low as a 1.6x overestimate by GiveWell.
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
I feel like every single there's some huge chorus of people wildly exaggerating the impact of differential turnout and then we finally had an election where differential turnout was a huge deal and it's getting underplayed — Republicans in some states just gave up.
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
Great cheat sheet from @bpmehlman for people hoping to go to bed by 11 pm Eastern while still having a good sense of where the election is heading. House on the left, Senate on the right.
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
I fucking love America, man.
A Mexican who learned English in an Italian accent because he worked in pizza restaurants This man is a cum town bit come to life
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
AI cracking unsolvable math problems while being kinda mid at writing is a much-needed W for humanities majors after a rough 21st century.
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
Along these lines, "let's give federal funding to scientists who want look at some lizard spit" sounds like something Rand Paul would have panned in his "Festivus" bit. But nope, that's how we got Ozempic folks! Very very hard to tell ex-ante what research is transformative!
"How do single-celled algae swim toward light sources" is the kind of project that gets DOGE'd—how does this help Americans? 20 years later, the underlying protein is a central tool in human neuroscience. We're a rich country, we should be funding way more basic science.
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about to go to my cousin's wedding where there will be 800 people who don't use AI & am missing san francisco. it's nice being able to go to a random bar in sf & know that there's someone there who will be down to converse about the exact topics that most interest you. i take it for granted way too often
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
We have set up a fund in Jake’s memory to support Junior Golf at Shiskine & Dunaverty in Scotland. The two places that he was happiest. He loved the Isle of Arran and the Mull of Kintyre 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿💙 gofund.me/78de1fb85
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
Ouch. Trump curse in full effect like with the Knicks.
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
Don't worry about it. The Chinese also invented gunpowder, and then literally didn't invent guns because they were using it for fireworks. They love fireworks. They will always use technology for fireworks. They can't help themselves.
Did the world really think this tech is for fireworks displays only?
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
Just what kind of people are running the United States?
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
> save $15M a year by cutting a screwworm monitoring program > screwworm outbreak almost immediately > $1B to combat it Government efficiency
The Trump administration has announced they'll need to spend an estimated $1 billion to combat the New World Screwworm.
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USA. A Mexican restaurant. We had not yet ordered anything, and the food was already arriving. Chips. Salsa. Unrequested. Free. I stopped the waiter. "We have not earned these." "They just come with the table, man." They come with the TABLE. In my land, hospitality is a debt. Every gift creates an obligation, weighed carefully, returned in the proper season with interest of feeling. Here, the gift arrives before you have even proven you can pay for dinner. This is not an appetizer. This is a declaration: we trust you. Eat. I ate with the gravity the moment deserved. And then — I must report this calmly — the basket emptied, and a new one appeared. "Did we…?" "Refill," the waiter said. "It's bottomless." Bottomless. They have wells of salsa. The supply lines of this nation are beyond anything my ancestors imagined. My friend warned me. "Don't fill up on chips, dude." Too late. I had accepted three baskets. Honor demanded each one be finished — an unfinished gift is an insult. By the time my actual food arrived, I was a ruined man. I was not hungry. I was not comfortable. I had been defeated by a courtesy. Generosity that arrives before the request cannot be repaid. It can only be survived. I know the rule now. I have made my peace with the basket. One basket. Two at the most. Who am I deceiving. There is no number of baskets I would refuse. The trust of a nation is in that salsa, and I intend to honor all of it.
🤖 Made with AI
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
Counterpoint: Here’s Trump threatening violence, calling for his political enemies’ executions, celebrating the deaths of people he didn’t like, and otherwise casually promoting political violence. Also there was the small matter of Jan 6 and subsequent pardons for violent felons
Trump does a lot of things I hate. But you know what he doesn't do? Promote political violence against his enemies. The same can't be said about the worst wackadoodles on the Far extremes right now.
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
Pallets of cash you say?
Scoop: U.S. considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran as peace talks progress Whether Iran takes the offer is another matter. We might find out in Islamabad this weekend @BarakRavid w/an assist from me axios.com/2026/04/17/iran-us…
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
Incredible
BREAKING: Jim Cramer on the Iran war “I don’t see a path to de-escalation” World peace incoming
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
Replying to @ConLawWarrior
Barrett cooked him here though
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
What happens when we use AI for research and the reviewing? Let's find out. Enter Human × AI Finance: write a finance paper with AI in 4 weeks. Every submission reviewed by AI agents. Top 4 presented at @uclaanderson. Everyone can submit. Deadline 3/18: humanxaifinance.org
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
Replying to @paulnovosad
Codex feels like
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Charlie Clarke retweeted
“So how much money could be out there in your Jesus Christ swaps and derivatives right now?” “Mmm. A billion dollars.” “What? How much bigger is the market of Rapture Derivatives than Second Coming trades?!” “About 20 times.”
So the reason this Polymarket “prediction market” is performing so insanely high is because there’s a second market asking if this market will go above 5%. People in the derivative market are manipulating this market. Which defeats the public policy case for prediction markets…
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