Allen Wilcox (@wilcoxEPID) profile picture
Durham, NC
Joined February 2011
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Allen Wilcox retweeted
The window between learning about a pregnancy from a missed period and fetal cardiac activity is only a few **days** For >20% of people with irregular periods, window may not exist at all. New @PNASNews study with Lindsay Cannon and Allen Wilcox:
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Have you been using SGA to represent high-risk infants? Me too. It turns out that SGA doesn’t work as well as we thought. links.springernature.com/f/a… #epitwitter @societyforepi @sper_news @ser_spc @isee_global @PPE_journal
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I have this idea for a billboard for a county of my state with one of the highest % of Trump voters and the lowest vaccination rates. Would it help?
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(and just in case you didn’t know, Trump HAS been vaccinated.) thehill.com/homenews/adminis…
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Today’s NYTimes has a long article about Joe Rogan, and mentions one of his guests, Shanna Swan “a reproductive epidemiologist.” Shanna, you’re famous! We’re all famous! @sper_news @DrShannaSwan
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You may never have listened to Dvorak’s Slavonic Dances as Dvorak meant them to be heard - as piano duos. This in memory of my friend Frank, who died yesterday. We spent many a Sunday afternoon butchering and relishing these wonderful pieces. youtu.be/o16Sa1Z-7Dg via @YouTube
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When did doctors first define preterm as <37 weeks? Ancil (1964) claimed a French physician, suggested it in 1902, so I had article translated. Lots of grim history on infant mort, but nothing about <37 weeks. Still searching! #epitwitter @societyforepi @sper_news @PPE_journal
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I can’t get in either. Help! #SER2020
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Will it be an SER meeting without the hugs? Tweets and likes will have to do for now. #SER2020
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Our unmarried son in California is spending Thanksgiving alone. Our daughter in New Jersey is shipping him a homemade pecan pie. My wife is sending him the cranberry sauce he loves. Family celebrations come in many forms.
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Obama’s election was a triumph, but nothing like the euphoria of being rescued from a burning building.
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Thanks to everyone who responded to poll. To recap, “Which RR is most likely false positive? Assume no bias, all P values=0.04, and ALL else held constant.” Responses were “4.0” 38%, “1.3” 19%, “both equal” 43%. #epitwitter @societyforepi @epidemilogyLWW @iseeglobal
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Under the (extremely) constrained conditions of this thought experiment, 4.0 is the most likely to be false and 1.3 is the least likely. Equal P values do NOT mean results have an equal chance of being false. Power also matters.
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Less power = more chance of a false positive. Like when we forage in subgroups. Subgroups reduce sample size, reduce power, and increase risk of false positive - even as results may achieve “statistical significance.”
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Help me out with something. Say you have two findings, RR=4.0 and RR=1.3, and both have P=0.04. Assuming there’s no bias and all else is held constant, which would you highlight in abstract? #epitwitter @societyforepi @sper_news @isee_global @PPE_journal @EpidemiologyLWW
30%4.0
10%1.3
60%Both equally
192 votes • Final results
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PART 2 Which RR is most likely to be false-positive? (Same conditions as before, all p=0.04, all else held constant) #epitwitter @societyforepi @sper_news @ser_spc @isee_global @PPE_journal @EpidemiologyLWW
38%4.0
19%1.3
44%Both equally
48 votes • Final results
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As in the first poll, I assume an absence of bias. That’s a strong assumption - but this is just a thought experiment.
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