Veteran/ Poet / Not a scientist
Hell
Joined January 2024
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No Glory
Searching for adventure deep and wide
I found what the bravest men always tried to hide
There was never any glory down in the mud and trenches
Only our dreams dying with all our senses
Some fought hand to hand and tore each other apart
While the luckiest ones fell six feet from the start
So no matter the medals that end up on your chest
You can save your war stories I’m not impressed
If you ever feel like you missed your chance and lost.
Don’t forget you’ll never find the glory in battle worth the blood it costs.
DC
#poetry #poet #peace #warriorpoet
I agree
Don't listen to anyone saying there is cold air coming soon on social media, there isnt. The Super El Nino is about to kick into overdrive and will dictate the weather this winter. Look at our source of cold air in Canada... They might set a record for the warmest winter on record up there in many places.
DC retweeted
Psychologist Irving Janis did a report (1949) for the Rand Corporation discussing how to induce hypnosis "with uncooperative, resistant persons". These methods included disguised induction at a doctor's visit, while a person was sleeping, & using hypnotic drugs.
Details in 🧵
DC retweeted
This record El Niño will probably continue to intensify for around two more months.
Ocean temperatures are now nearly 93°F (33.7°C) beneath the surface in the eastern Pacific, with anomalies as large as 19.8°F (11.0°C) — several degrees more anomalous than 1997 was at this time.
DC retweeted
Now November.
Edward Riordan: "A large-scale internet outage. Computers, TVs, man, they are offline."
On his page: "This is a larger scale internet outage."
DC retweeted
Wondered the same thing, ran his account through Claude and Codex because I'm not reading all that.
Brilliant ….
teapaw.org/statisticizer/status/2…
❄️🌀🌎 Early November 2026 — Stratospheric Warming Signal
Early-November Polar Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Signal | 3–10 November 2026
The latest structural-analog analysis is showing a notable increase in the likelihood of a possible early-November sudden stratospheric warming episode during 3–10 November 2026, with the signal particularly pronounced across the Eurasian and North American sectors. This early November SSW had also oddly materialized in November 2025, which is considered a rare event .
The forecast is based on 20 candidate structural analogs for November 2026, with the resulting pattern remaining robust after resampling across 10 independent random-season ensembles.
The 10-hPa temperature composite shows a pronounced positive temperature anomaly across the Arctic/polar stratosphere, with the strongest warming extending through the Eurasian and North American sectors.
The accompanying 100-hPa vector-wind composite also indicates a highly disturbed circulation pattern around the polar region, providing additional evidence of an anomalous large-scale dynamical configuration during the same period.
⚠️ Important: This is not a confirmation of an SSW event. At this stage, it represents an analog-based probabilistic signal. Confirmation would require the dynamical evolution to produce the characteristic weakening and/or reversal of the 10-hPa polar-night jet, particularly in the zonal-mean winds near 60°N.
The next level of verification is therefore to examine the 10-, 30-, 50-, and 100-hPa circulation structure, including the evolution of the polar vortex and the potential role of upward-propagating planetary wave-1 and wave-2 activity.
If the temperature and wind signals remain dynamically coherent as we approach November, the case for an early-November stratospheric disruption becomes considerably stronger.
🔹 Forecast window: 3–10 November 2026
🔹 Method: Structural Analog Modeling + Random-Season Resampling
🔹 Candidate analogs: 20
🔹 Validation: 10 independent random-season ensembles
🔹 Primary diagnostic: 10-hPa polar temperature
🔹 Dynamical support: 100-hPa vector-wind structure
See the previous forecast for Nov SSW signal found from June in the comments please .
Statistical Model by @Statisticizer
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Aviatech Jordan
aviatech-mena.com/allservice…
DC retweeted
❄️🌀🌎 Early November 2026 — Stratospheric Warming Signal
Early-November Polar Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Signal | 3–10 November 2026
The latest structural-analog analysis is showing a notable increase in the likelihood of a possible early-November sudden stratospheric warming episode during 3–10 November 2026, with the signal particularly pronounced across the Eurasian and North American sectors. This early November SSW had also oddly materialized in November 2025, which is considered a rare event .
The forecast is based on 20 candidate structural analogs for November 2026, with the resulting pattern remaining robust after resampling across 10 independent random-season ensembles.
The 10-hPa temperature composite shows a pronounced positive temperature anomaly across the Arctic/polar stratosphere, with the strongest warming extending through the Eurasian and North American sectors.
The accompanying 100-hPa vector-wind composite also indicates a highly disturbed circulation pattern around the polar region, providing additional evidence of an anomalous large-scale dynamical configuration during the same period.
⚠️ Important: This is not a confirmation of an SSW event. At this stage, it represents an analog-based probabilistic signal. Confirmation would require the dynamical evolution to produce the characteristic weakening and/or reversal of the 10-hPa polar-night jet, particularly in the zonal-mean winds near 60°N.
The next level of verification is therefore to examine the 10-, 30-, 50-, and 100-hPa circulation structure, including the evolution of the polar vortex and the potential role of upward-propagating planetary wave-1 and wave-2 activity.
If the temperature and wind signals remain dynamically coherent as we approach November, the case for an early-November stratospheric disruption becomes considerably stronger.
🔹 Forecast window: 3–10 November 2026
🔹 Method: Structural Analog Modeling + Random-Season Resampling
🔹 Candidate analogs: 20
🔹 Validation: 10 independent random-season ensembles
🔹 Primary diagnostic: 10-hPa polar temperature
🔹 Dynamical support: 100-hPa vector-wind structure
See the previous forecast for Nov SSW signal found from June in the comments please .
Statistical Model by @Statisticizer
🔋Powered by Aviatech Jordan & UAE-Dubai — Poultry Farm Equipment & Integrated Farming Solutions
Aviatech Jordan
aviatech-mena.com/allservice…
I feel like given all the talk about stratospheric warming and polar vortex disruption some things need to be clarified:
1. A SSW(sudden stratospheric warming) and potential subsequent reversal in winds associated with the stratospheric polar vortex DO NOT guarantee wave reflections back to the troposphere or coupling. It can have significant impacts should coupling/reflections to the lower atmosphere occur, but that is something that is still an unknown and will need to be observed in coming days and weeks. Wave reflection can have impacts sooner, coupling can take longer.
2. Notice how I said weeks… there is usually a lag period between the actual disruptive warming event/reversal itself and subsequent downward reflection and/or potential coupling. This can take time, and is still not a guarantee.
3. With the above being said this may have impacts on our pattern at 500 MB down the road come mid/late November, but right now that is TBD. In any case the Nino enhanced sub tropical jet will lead to increased storminess, with wetter and cooler potential for the southern tier of the United States as we move deeper into November, that’s just Nino climo.
So while this may be exciting for winter weather enthusiasts and while this event is extraordinary given the environment and time of year it is occurring, nothing is set in stone as of yet. Could this lead to a colder pattern later into November? Yes. Could wave propagation simply be absorbed by the stratosphere leaving a weakened vortex with little downward propagation/surface effects? Also yes. (The second scenario still doesn’t preclude downward coupling later down the road)
We know this will more likely than not significantly disrupt the polar vortex, but we still need to have some patience and observe downward coupling/wave propagation over the next 2-4 weeks. Canada is also going to remain quite warm during this time, so any true cold will need to originate via cross polar flow should we get enough polar blocking. Just several things to think about before we get either too hyped up, or too dismissive of this event at the moment.
DC retweeted
We have been telling you for all those years. I myself gave 100s of lectures... with little impact on real life, to be honest. We are still "alarmists". – at Moravany, Česká republika
DC retweeted
1: The ~58-foot-high "Chief's Mound" at Moundville, Alabama, and 2: Display sign on the top of the mound explaining the "eye-in-hand" symbol and Orion's role in the Path of Souls Journey.
While meteorologists understand the mechanics of mid-winter splits, they are in uncharted territory with the current event.
Prior to this, the earliest recorded major stratospheric wind reversals occurred on November 28 (in both 1968 and 2023). The current collapse is solidifying around early November, meaning the atmosphere is acting with mid-winter volatility while the vortex is still supposed to be growing and strengthening for the season.
