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Our leading indicators show that both global growth and inflation impulses are now firmly negative.
The chop we have seen in our global growth diffusion has ended with a clear negative impulse. This suggests both growth and inflation surprises are biased negative over the next 6 months.
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We're about to enter a period where not reading or writing becomes as ubiquitous as smoking once was. We can hope people will eventually realize this is bad for them, as they did with smoking. But this is far from certain; the cost may not be as obvious.
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🇪🇺 Euro-Zone Slowdown Will Help Keep ECB Rates on Hold for Now - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Not up for an Ackman-sized tweet, but this is what I'm seeing:
- Early voting is swinging massively towards Ds
- Ds are not friendly to AI and data centers
- Trump loses midterms, he is going to obliterate Iran
- Oil goes to $200, a genuine energy crisis
- Reserves depleted to get it down
- Credit spreads ripping higher
- The usual concerns about private credit/insurers
If stocks were ever to drop, it will probably happen in the next few weeks
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Kospi margin balance
Oct 2020: "There is no way this is sustainable"
Oct 2026: "There is no way this......."
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Many people don’t yet grasp the path Germany is on. Its fertility rate has dropped to 1.32 children per woman, with births at a post-war low. Meanwhile, in many parts of the country roughly one in three 15-year-olds (and roughly one in two in left-run Berlin and Bremen) score below minimum reading proficiency. A high-wage, high-productivity economy requires a workforce that can read, follow technical instructions, retrain, innovate, and adapt.
With a smaller and much less prepared future working-age population, the arithmetic grows difficult, fewer people, lower average skills, and rising dependency ratios. Immigration can offset numbers only if language, literacy, and qualification gaps are closed at scale, something far slower and costlier than naive left politicians assumed.
The practical question is straightforward, can Germany sustain its prosperity when the cohort that must finance pensions, innovate, and maintain infrastructure is shrinking and, on average, less literate than previous generations?
Isn’t that interesting? Germans not only work the fewest hours in Europe and have one of the lowest productivity growth rates, but all neighbors, except France, get better education scores than young Germans. How exactly is Germany supposed to keep its wealth and prosperity, that was built on world-leading engineering and manufacturing, when its neighbors work more hours, become more productive, and are smarter?
This probably helps explain why one industrial company after another is closing factories in Germany. One cannot justify high German salaries under such circumstances anymore.
But hey, why don’t you “tax the rich” even more? This will certainly solve Germany’s problems. Wait, they will emigrate, and take their taxes with them. Good luck Deutschland.
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What share of typical monthly income is needed to rent 100 m² of housing across Europe? Denmark looks attractive.
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The changing complexion of America
According to the 1950 U.S. Census, 90% of the United States population was white.
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You can reverse engineer any app with current models. A proper harness plus a good decompiler like IDA/Ghidra and you can literally rebuild anything.
github.com/morluto/rea
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JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇷🇺 President Trump reportedly wants Putin and Zelensky to sign a peace deal at the G20 summit in Miami.
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🚨 ZELENSKY SAYS HE WOULD ACCEPT A PEACE DEAL FREEZING THE WAR ALONG CURRENT LINES
Interviewer: “Would you agree to a peace agreement that freezes the situation exactly as it is today, so Ukraine would continue to hold 75% or more of its territory?”
Zelensky: “Yes.”
A remarkably clear signal that Kyiv would be prepared to accept a ceasefire based on the current territorial reality.
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🇩🇪 Germany has lost nearly 500,000 industrial jobs since 2019 according to an Ifo study. Yet the country continues to create jobs and that is where the real problem with the German economy lies.
📊 Including certain estimates for temporary workers, the losses could reach 628,000 jobs but all these losses are concentrated in the sectors that have historically driven Germany's industrial strength. We are talking about 123,500 jobs lost in the automotive industry and its suppliers, 115,600 in fabricated metal products, and 64,500 in machinery manufacturing. Together, these three sectors account for 60% of all industrial job losses.
⚠️ Over the same period, the country added approximately 1.7 million jobs overall, largely driven by the services sector, which gained more than 2.2 million jobs. However, a significant share of this job creation has been concentrated in public administration, healthcare, education, and social services. These activities are essential but they do not offer the same potential for productivity gains, innovation, and exports as Germany's traditional industrial sectors.
➡️ To understand this transformation, we need to look at the foundations of Germany's economic model. For decades, its success relied on high-end manufacturing, highly specialized exporting companies, a skilled workforce, relatively competitive energy costs, and strong international demand. Today, these advantages are being challenged as energy costs remain elevated, demographic aging is increasing labor market pressures, and international competition is intensifying. I am afraid of the emergence of a vicious cycle as weakening competitiveness could discourage investment, slow innovation, and further undermine the country's productive capacity. Moreover, this transformation is taking place at a time when demographic aging is increasing the financial burden of pensions, healthcare, and long-term care.
Germany appears to be gradually losing some of the economic advantages that made it so successful, and without a recovery in competitiveness, what currently looks like an industrial crisis could turn into a lasting crisis of Germany's entire growth model.
*Ifo link (German): ifo.de/DocDL/ifoDD_2605_04-1…
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🌍 European countries that added the most migrants (2000–2024)
1. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: +7.1M
2. 🇪🇸 Spain: +6.8M
3. 🇩🇪 Germany: +6.4M
4. 🇹🇷 Türkiye: +5.8M
5. 🇮🇹 Italy: +4.4M
6. 🇫🇷 France: +3.0M
7. 🇦🇹 Austria: +1.4M
8. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: +1.4M
9. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: +1.3M
10. 🇧🇪 Belgium: +1.3M
11. 🇸🇪 Sweden: +1.3M
12. 🇵🇱 Poland: +917K
13. 🇮🇪 Ireland: +840K
14. 🇳🇴 Norway: +720K
15. 🇷🇴 Romania: +521K
16. 🇵🇹 Portugal: +476K
17. 🇩🇰 Denmark: +475K
18. 🇭🇺 Hungary: +393K
19. 🇨🇿 Czechia: +386K
20. 🇫🇮 Finland: +378K
Europe's migrant population grew by 40.8 million between 2000 and 2024, up 67%. The UK, Spain and Germany together account for almost half of that increase.
Source: UN DESA
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Chers wesh wesh wallah casseur, j'ai une bonne nouvelle pour toi, tu viens de renforcer la vente d'armes de catégorie D de 18% en 4 jours, d'après mes fournisseurs, des commerçants du nord de la France se sont équipés de ce genre d'engin pour te faire un comité d'accueil ! ../..
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Mapped: Youth Unemployment Rates Across Europe in 2026 💼
visualcapitalist.com/mapped-…
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🇺🇸 Hedge Funds Cut Tech at Fastest Pace in a Decade, Goldman Says - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
