I wonder how Zucman will react to this loss? Perhaps with a long thread, full of ravings and pictures of billionaires? Perhaps..
It's too hot right now, all the rats are abandoning ship. I'm laying low at Abel's place until things blow over. Every man for himself.
Gabriel retweeted
There's no place like the Buckeye State. Happy Ohio Day! ❤️
📸: @6drone4
ALT Aerial view of The Ohio State University campus during sunset, showcasing a large central building with surrounding greenery and pathways. The sky is partly cloudy with warm hues.
ALT Aerial view of a river with a bridge crossing over it, surrounded by lush, colorful autumn foliage. The landscape is a mix of vibrant red, orange, and yellow trees, set against a clear blue sky.
ALT Aerial view of a winding road cutting through a vibrant forest in autumn. The trees display a mix of yellow, orange, and red foliage, creating a rich tapestry of colors.
ALT Aerial view of The Columbus Gateway, an ornate stone arch, leading to a wide, grassy area bordered by trees with vibrant autumn foliage. The scene is framed by tall, modern buildings on either side.
Lost what? Oh no, what a terrible fate, a cushy retirement in New England, on a pile of millions. Surely this will deter the next would-be Gino. 🙃
Gino lost!
A federal judge granted Harvard summary judgment on all of Francesca Gino's claims (contract, sex discrimination, retaliation). Harvard's defamation counterclaim and sanctions motion are still pending, so she could lose even more.
courtlistener.com/docket/676…
*Some* economists are declining in status. And I'm very happy about it.
Are economists declining in status? marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Gabriel retweeted
Fascinating: everyone is now discovering something that was obvious over twenty years ago! "Mind-boggling" and "eye-opening" or even "allucinante", I read.
Indeed. What is truly insane is that the Italian academic, political, economic, and media establishment has spent a quarter of a century denying this reality (the alarm bells should have sounded back in 1992!), and most of it still denies this staggering stagnation and decline.
We launched @noisefromAmeri in early 2006 precisely because the data already showed it. It was obvious to any self-respecting economist capable of applying basic growth models and elementary statistics. Our earliest pieces focused on this exact point: real wages were not growing and never would without drastic reforms.
We spoke of declino back then; it was unmistakable, even as the establishment—including Italian academic economists—insisted on denying it and dismissed us as fools, among other choice pleasantries.
Drastic reforms should have been implemented then. Today, it is far from certain that things can still be fixed. We can keep trying—and I am—but it is very late in the game, and most of the country has been convinced that the fault lies elsewhere and that Italy needs no reforms.
@albertobisin @andreamoro @brusco_sandro
@clementi_gl @giulio_zanella #GiorgioTopa #GiovanniFederico
This is eye-opening, Italy’s real wages have stagnated for a generation. OECD data show real gross wages per employee down 1.6% from 1990 to 2024, while the OECD average rose 35%, the US 50.5%, the UK 48.4%, France 33.4% and Germany 32.9%. Joining the euro removed Italy’s long-used Lira devaluation escape valve. With the exchange rate locked, the only options were faster productivity growth or lower relative wages. Italy has largely failed at the first.
Labour productivity growth has been near zero since the late 1990s, far below peers. Unit labour costs rose relative to Germany as wages outpaced meagre productivity gains. Industrial production is now roughly 23% below its 2000 level, with sharp losses in textiles, clothing and intermediate goods. Manufacturing remains important, but much lower-end capacity that thrived on periodic devaluations has been squeezed or closed.
The result is prolonged internal devaluation, with stagnant or falling real wages containing costs. Some firms upgraded into higher-value niches and exports held up better than volumes, but workers and large parts of industry have stagnated. Without higher productivity, the euro’s rigidities continue to force adjustment onto wages rather than the currency. Will politicians ever admit that introducing the euro in Italy was a huge mistake?
Gabriel retweeted
US debt/GDP increased by 1.6% to 100.2% from 2025Q3 to 2026Q3.
Primary deficits (+9.8%) and returns on reserves and rev. repos (+0.1%) were financed by returns on Treasuries (-0.7%), inflation (-4.6%), and real growth (-3%).
Percentages interpreted as contributions to debt/GDP.
Remember what they took from you open.spotify.com/track/4eihd…
The point of this was, by the way, that sticking to plans and promises you made in the past makes no sense if the world changes, as it does, unless you're plans can cover all possible contingencies at all horizons (they can't). So don't tell me what policy will be in 5-10 years.
Oh no, his French doomer genes are asserting themselves 🤔 But there are no breaks on this train. Choo choo
My views on AI have radically shifted over the past few weeks, after spending way too much time reading about it and watching interviews of industry leaders and experts.
First, I really love the tools. I spend $200 on Claude every month and the product is worth every penny for me. Probably even more. I think the existing tools can deliver significant increase to future GDP and help us solve major global challenges faced by humanity.
However, I just cannot comprehend why the industry is not much more regulated, as its leaders and employees seem to request themselves. I meet a lot of people who have heard of the hugging face incident but don’t know the actual chain of events. If you don’t, you definitely should spend a least an hour reading about it.
I also do not know why we need to follow the path that frontier labs are following, to develop ever more powerful models. It seems to me that they are enormous gains that are readily available if we deploy the current technology in economic and scientific organizations without pursuing a super intelligence that they say might kill us and more likely wreak havoc in society. I know a lot of people think these warnings are marketing tricks, and that’s a reasonable assumption. But I don’t see the point of taking such risks.
My median scenario is that of many economists: AI will diffuse slowly and lift gdp growth by a percentage point or so, will cause some economic disruption on the way, but ultimately people will get new jobs and maybe work less.
However, I am deeply uncomfortable with the absolutely wild level of uncertainty around this prediction. And to be honest, even setting the doom scenarios aside, I find the utopia scenarios of some industry leaders actually dystopian. And I think a large majority of the public would agree if they paid attention to what they’re saying. To their credit, they themselves agree publicly that they should not be the ones making these choices. A large majority of the public is now very skeptical of AI as a source of human progress, in particular among younger adults who use it the most. They should have a say.
I don’t want to convince you of anything but to get informed about this topic, express yourself and vote accordingly.
Young women are reading again, but its smut of the weirdest variety imaginable
Gabriel retweeted
Once per year, @elonmusk should hold an ostracism, in which all Twitter users may vote to ban one insufferable pundit for life.
Gabriel retweeted
The confusion that, after 60 years, still prevails about the scientific relevance (= 0) of that debate is disconcerting.
Ideology has an incredibly powerful grip on the weak minds.