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Alright, let’s do this twitter thing.
1/ I started @prometheusmacro in 2020 as a free blog to develop and share my ideas on macro and investing. Fast forward to today and Prometheus is a fast growing macro research firm servicing some of the biggest institutions in the world…
Yes, everyone is concerned about AI capex.
However, an underappreciated factor in the macro dynamic is that much of the current profit growth (about 50%) is fueled by the dis-saving of households.
Our next note @prometheusmacro will be on this subject
Things have momentum for a reason
Find the reason(s)
Track them carefully
Don’t believe momentum without reasons
@aahan_prometheus retweeted
That Giant Sucking Noise
The latest news of AI-related equity & debt financing highlights just how much asset supply is required to finance surging investment and the challenging environment for asset prices that comes with it.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p…
@aahan_prometheus retweeted
The Nasdaq is down almost -6% since 10 October and the OAT-Bund spread hit 175bps, its highest since 2012.
Markets now price fewer hikes.
We think that’s premature: financial conditions have barely tightened and inflation keeps rising.
We see Fed, ECB and BoJ hikes in December.
@aahan_prometheus retweeted
Oil markets are increasingly pricing persistent elevated oil prices. How investors are unprepared for this new reality, free on the blog app this week:
xitter.cf/BobEUnlimited/status/2…
Higher For Longer Oil Prices
Near-term oil prices are pushing back to Iran war highs and markets are increasingly expecting elevated prices through next year, suggesting little relief from central bank hiking cycles ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p…
@aahan_prometheus retweeted
Horrific inflation data last week and PMI prices this week in line with it getting even worse. Crude 103$ with the full 12 month curve at $100.
Yet FCI has added to inflation impulses for 2 weeks in a row.
Big test for Warsh next week.
@aahan_prometheus retweeted
Stopped by CNBC Wed morning to talk through the challenges facing the AI trade and how bonds could just be a good buy in this environment.
cnbc.com/video/2026/10/21/ma…
@aahan_prometheus retweeted
Bonds turning into an equity trade with SPX 2-3% from ATHs is probably the dumbest thing they have done all cycle, and they have had a pretty stupid cycle in general.
Oil rallies are transitory if a short episode. Not when it's 8 months and counting.
Self defeating & dumb.
@aahan_prometheus retweeted
Live Friday lunch MacroTalk pod back next week! In the meantime, we’d love to get any thoughts on how it can be better from those that have listened to our first couple goes at it so far.
Excited to get back to it!
Macro Talk: Back Next Week (not today)
I know you all miss the banter between myself and Bob. Do not fear!
Both our travel schedules have not been amenable to our usual recording time.
But we’ll be back at it next week. Keep the questions and quips coming!
@aahan_prometheus retweeted
The new RenMac.com is live.
Explore our upgraded home for independent research, market perspectives, Off-Script episodes, and educational resources.
Take a look around: renmac.com/
