Research service with the goal of democratizing finance. Making institutional-quality insights and research available to the public.
Joined January 2021
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Prometheus Institutional🔥
Prometheus is built on deep research into how the economy & markets work. We translate that into systematic programs across global markets. We offer an ever-evolving, forward-looking, signal-based view of the global macroeconomic landscape.
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Our estimate of real new manufacturing orders has slowed as rising producer prices absorb much of the nominal strength, but it continues to track modest expansion in manufacturing production.
Prometheus Research retweeted
Yes, everyone is concerned about AI capex.
However, an underappreciated factor in the macro dynamic is that much of the current profit growth (about 50%) is fueled by the dis-saving of households.
Our next note @prometheusmacro will be on this subject
Hikes cause recessions when they drain private income. Since 1967, outside of COVID, a recession has never begun within a year of net interest drag falling.
Today, it is falling, so the Fed's hikes so far aren't doing the work they used to.
Prometheus Research retweeted
Our measure of industrial equipment production
-- Prometheus Research
Our measure of industrial equipment production continues to accelerate within an expansion, and with industrial earnings expectations holding near their highs, the backdrop for industrial profits remains supportive
Prometheus Research retweeted
High Nominal Growth -> Demand Destruction
Financial markets looked right through the drags on the economy from high oil prices for most of the year. As oil gets back to Iran war highs, we are seeing an important shift in the market action.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p…
Hiking cycles are never fully priced in. In 2022, the curve priced cuts while the Fed delivered 533bps of hikes.
The Fed's inertia means policy tends to move further than markets expect at any given time.
Prometheus Research retweeted
How Far Does The Fed Need To Go?
-- Prometheus Research
Prometheus Research retweeted
Bonds Are The Worst: Serious Edition
30 and pages of free game just dropped at Prometheus
Linked below. Share with your loved ones.
Prometheus Research retweeted
@dampedspring @DsrPrivate
Took a bit longer to answer than expected, but here’s my view
Prometheus Research retweeted
Our retail sales-implied estimate of real consumption points to a slowing contribution to GDP growth.
-- Prometheus Research
Our retail sales-implied estimate of real consumption points to a slowing contribution to GDP growth, as gasoline-driven nominal gains fail to translate into real spending.
Prometheus Research retweeted
Have only unwound a few weeks of the mania, and there are a lot of folks levered up on the long side of this trade.
