Autarkh (@Autarkh) header
Autarkh (@Autarkh) profile picture

Cosmopolitan pro-market progressive. Dad. Surfer. Lawyer. Data/Stats, IT, Science, Polisci/Econ geek. Guerrilla tweeter. Allergic to cranks. #ResistAgain

Los Angeles, CA
Joined February 2009
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Autarkh retweeted
The final @SplitTicket_/@TheArgumentMag model update, run with today's polls. Senate: 53D-47R (77% 🟦) House: 239D-196R (92% 🟦) The data unambiguously says something. It's just that nobody seems to actually believe it. We'll see if that's warranted. theargumentmag.com/p/split-t…
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In all my years as a #Florida meteorologist I’ve NEVER seen anything like this. Several different areas have seen 1-2 feet of rain already… and it just keeps coming. This is current radar showing two training bands setting back up now. Multiple more inches of rain will fall on top of what has already fallen. Flash Flood Emergency Palm Bay and multiple Flash Flood Warnings.
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Autarkh retweeted
In Texas these days, every conversation returns to Ken Paxton. On the national stage, there is much chatter about his opponent James Talarico, the clean-cut Presbyterian seminarian who just might win the Democrats’ first Senate seat in Texas since 1988. He’s run a good campaign. But the seat is Paxton’s to lose more than Talarico’s to win. Paxtonfreude is a bipartisan business in Texas these days, writes Christopher Hooks. The state’s Republican nominee for United States senate has trailed in most polls conducted. It is a difficult prospect to accept; it is Texas, after all. Democrats have, for years, convinced themselves they have a chance here, but this has always felt like a pipe dream for Democratic operatives and MS NOW watchers. Now, in private, Republicans are worried. They grouse about a man who has been given everything he needs to win — including more than $150 million from Elon Musk — and still might lose. Recently, a longtime Republican political operative in the Dallas area with a sinking feeling about Paxton’s chances did what a good practitioner does: He convened a focus group. “I told my wife, ‘You have to go to your mahjong group and casually bring up the Senate race,’” he says. Game-playing Dallas ladies with comfortable homes have been a pillar of the Republican coalition in Texas for as long as fire-breathing Church of Christ preachers and the Yell Leaders of Texas A&M. And yet each of the women said that they would be voting for Paxton’s opponent in the race, James Talarico. The most important factor was that these women knew Ken Paxtons — plural — as a type. Reporters can waste a lot of words differentiating between Paxton’s major and minor sins. The mahjong ladies cut through the knot in a much cleaner way. “Paxton represents what they don’t want from their husbands,” the operative said. Read Hooks on how Warren Kenneth Paxton became so deeply unpopular in his home state and within his own party: nymag.visitlink.me/jQYSi5
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Even a very Republican-skewing judicial branch has been a meaningful check on Trump and flipping the senate — and only flipping the senate — stops Trump from stacking the judiciary with cultists who'll remove that check.
I understand entirely the instinct to teach the House GOP a lesson. But if you punish the Senate GOP, it will be 6 years before they can do anything about it. And we can lose the Republic before then.
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Autarkh retweeted
Dear @USAttyEssayli: The full Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the panel decision. So you lost again. Take your authoritarian shit and shove it. Stop trying to disenfranchise Americans. Oh, and when are you going to resign from your illegal appointment?
The TRO issued by a San Francisco judge purporting to restrict DOJ investigations into election officials has been appropriately lifted. Conducting criminal investigations is a core function of the executive branch, not the judiciary.
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Autarkh retweeted
Reminder: The U.S. Postal Service has reduced mail pickup at some local facilities, which could affect when your ballot is postmarked. To find out whether your ZIP code is affected, use our lookup tool: propublica.org/article/mail-…
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Autarkh retweeted
Happy November! This month Voyager 1 will become the first spacecraft to reach 1 light day from Earth. 🔭 #astro
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Erin Burnett wraps up Trump’s final speech on the eve of the midterm elections: “Trump spent about 25 minutes talking about what you just heard: the reflecting pool… grass, algae, the golf course.”
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Tomorrow….
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We got your back, New York!
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Several figures here aren’t federal results or NY-specific. The $472B combines US wide pledges: Micron's $250B is nationwide (NY site $100B) Anthropic's $50B covers TX and NY. The 48% murder drop is from NY's state run GIVE program (28 departments, Jan – May 2026). arkolith.com/news/news-micr… therepublic.com/?p=843020 governor.ny.gov/news/safer-str…
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Trump has offered Americans dividends, rebates, or checks FIFTEEN TIMES since February of 2025 and delivered ZERO.
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Autarkh retweeted
This is surpising: The map has gotten so bad for the GOP that a number of the biggest MAGA personalities in the House are at serious risk of defeat. That includes some who were involved in Jan 6. I tallied it all up here. It's striking. 1/ (new piece) newrepublic.com/article/2174…
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I approve this message.
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Make MAGA end tomorrow.
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#Final @LarrySabato’s Crystal Ball House Rating Changes:
#Final @LarrySabato’s Crystal Ball House Ratings: Democrats 239 Republicans 196
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Big oil's profits have tripled with the Iran War. The windfall thus far is nearly $100 billion.
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NEWS: The last Senate polls of 2026 from NYT/Siena: From me and @RuthIgielnik nytimes.com/2026/11/01/us/po…
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CRYSTAL BALL: Final 2026 ratings SENATE: 53 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R (D+6) GOVERNORS: 28 at least Leans D, 22 at least Leans R (D+4) HOUSE: 239 at least Leans D, 196 at least Leans R (D+24) Details from @kkondik and me here: centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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