Bam💥

🏀NBA Play #1 Luka Doncic O 40.5 PR -113 FD Absolutely love this spot. Luka is coming off of two series being guarded by Lou Dort and then Jaden McDaniels. Now he gets this Boston matchup where nobody really has the size and capability to defend him. Luka should draw the Jaylen Brown matchup. Jrue and White are both great perimeter defenders but they just don’t have enough size to effectively defend Luka. When the Celtics switch on guard-to-guard screens and Luka gets either of these matchups, he can easily muscle his was to his spots and get quality looks. We’ve seen this repeatedly in prior matchups. Then there’s the drop coverage aspect with Porzingis which leaves Luka with open three looks, or an open lane to the rim. We’ve targeted this all year. There’s also the aspect of how well Luka can draw fouls and get to the FT line with his elite deceleration when a defender fights over top of screens and trails him at his back. Bottom line, Luka is the best player on the floor here. Jrue will take Kyrie, and there’s nobody who can stop Luka in single coverage + open looks in drop. For the rebounds side of things, Luka guards Jrue on defense who sits in the corners and is always on position for uncontested weak side rebounds. In two games vs. Boston in the regular season, Luka is averaging 20.5 rebound chances per game with 15 RPG on 38.1 MPG. He converted at a very high percentage because only 11 of his 30 rebounds were contested. Very simple here, we should expect 10+ (12, 18 rebounds vs Boston in two regular season games).

🏀Recap 🪝Anthony Edwards O 26.5 Pts 🪝Naz Reid U 16.5 PR 🪝❌🪝❌🪝❌🪝❌🪝❌🪝❌ So dope.

🏀 NBA Plays for 5/28 Karl Anthony-Towns O 19.5 Pts -110 FD Kyle Anderson O 7.5 PA -135 DK Not much needed to say for KAT. This is as “buy low” as it gets. 18+ FGA in games 1 and 3 with his normal minute total. 16 FGA in game 2 when he was benched and played only 26 minutes. Pure volume play. He should see 38-40 minutes here facing elimination. He’s over in 4/5 games on the road playing 34-40 minutes with all starters + Naz Reid active. For Kyle Anderson, he’s one of their best defensive options against Luka. Finch said he probably should have played Anderson more. We could see about 18-20 minutes for him here. This has been a great series for Anderson who’s also been very efficient. He’s over this line in 4/5 games playing 15-22 minutes with all starters and Reid/NAW active.

🏀NBA Play #1🌟 Sam Hauser O 4.5 PTS -120 ESPN Collab with @serbianbacapper 🔥 Over 3.5 at -130 on ESPN is ridiculous as well. The Celtics have been running with a small ball lineup which has been very successful for them - replacing Horford with Hauser. In game 1 they showed it, and in game 2 they closed the game with it, and Hauser stole a lot of Horford’s minutes. Game 1: Hauser - 9 mins Horford - 40 mins Game 2: Hauser - 22 mins Horford - 24 mins It’s given them a lot of success and we should see more of it again. With these kind of minutes he should see plenty of volume to cover this line. He’s over in 5/7 games with 18-22 minutes with Holiday/Tatum/Brown/White and without Porzingis averaging 7.7 FGA. He’s been inefficient this series as well. Could say more but just need to post this before tip off.

Odds much better on DK now. Didn’t have Ant DD up when I was line shopping.

🏀NBA Play #1 Dereck Lively O 6.5 Reb -134 FD Game 1 +/- for Dallas Centers: Dereck Lively: +19 (led team) Daniel Gafford: -15 (worst on team) Lively is a better defender and provides a better rim presence. He’s also more effective in the PnR game than Gafford. This team is better with Lively on the floor, plain and simple. They know it too. On defense Rudy keeps him glued to the paint. He saw 21 rebound chances. Most of them were contested, but if his rebound chances stay relatively consistent with what he saw in game 1, we’re only asking him to convert 30-40%.

🏀NBA Play #5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker O 5.5 Pts -115 Fanatics I have my process, I’m taking this again. His minutes were lower than expected but he was very inefficient and Kyle Anderson got extra run (and deserved those minutes) with how well he was playing. NAW went 0-4 on open threes, and his shooting volume covered this line last game (albeit one shot was heavily contested as time expired). I don’t think we’ll see 17 minutes from Anderson again who played more than NAW for the for the first time this post-season.

Lotto Card for the day🔥 +2700 (0.2u) Lively should see 25-28 minutes and will be held in the paint by Rudy. He’ll have to fight for them, but 20-25 rebounds chances should be there. KAT will continue to see high volume open looks on the perimeter and should be more aggressive/efficient The upside for either assists or rebounds for Ant is well worth it (see RA write-up for more) LIKE=TAILING❤️