Bam💥

🏀NBA Play #1 Luka Doncic O 40.5 PR -113 FD Absolutely love this spot. Luka is coming off of two series being guarded by Lou Dort and then Jaden McDaniels. Now he gets this Boston matchup where nobody really has the size and capability to defend him. Luka should draw the Jaylen Brown matchup. Jrue and White are both great perimeter defenders but they just don’t have enough size to effectively defend Luka. When the Celtics switch on guard-to-guard screens and Luka gets either of these matchups, he can easily muscle his was to his spots and get quality looks. We’ve seen this repeatedly in prior matchups. Then there’s the drop coverage aspect with Porzingis which leaves Luka with open three looks, or an open lane to the rim. We’ve targeted this all year. There’s also the aspect of how well Luka can draw fouls and get to the FT line with his elite deceleration when a defender fights over top of screens and trails him at his back. Bottom line, Luka is the best player on the floor here. Jrue will take Kyrie, and there’s nobody who can stop Luka in single coverage + open looks in drop. For the rebounds side of things, Luka guards Jrue on defense who sits in the corners and is always on position for uncontested weak side rebounds. In two games vs. Boston in the regular season, Luka is averaging 20.5 rebound chances per game with 15 RPG on 38.1 MPG. He converted at a very high percentage because only 11 of his 30 rebounds were contested. Very simple here, we should expect 10+ (12, 18 rebounds vs Boston in two regular season games).

🏀Full NBA Playoff Card 5/22🌟 $25 to someone who likes if we go 4-0🔥 Kyrie Irving O 21.5 Pts -113 FD PJ Washington U 14.5 PA -120 Fanatics Nickeil Alexander-Walker O 6.5 Pts +105 HardRock Daniel Gafford U 8.5 Pts -130 Bet365 Let’s get it!

🏀NBA Lotto🔥 +7459 (0.25u) Dallas will double Ant and leave 4th and 5th option role players open on the perimeter. NAW should see solid minutes for defensive purposes and open looks with Dallas trapping Ant and packing the paint. Kyrie’s line is low coming off a series where they blitzed him and Luka into oblivion. He should see high volume and open looks vs. Minnesota’s drop coverage like he did earlier this season (35 pts, 13-27 in last matchup). LIKE=TAILING❤️

🏀NBA Play #3🌟 Nickeil Alexander-Walker O 6.5 Pts +105 HardRock Another collab w/ @serbianbacapper 🔥 Dallas will probably treat Ant like they did Shai. They’ll force the ball out of his hands and protect the paint to slow down these Minnesota big men, essentially what they did last series letting OKC role players chuck threes. NAW will need to be on the floor more for defensive purposes with Luka and Kyrie. He’s been as inefficient from deep this playoffs but with the expected volume and open shots I need to take this here. Role players like Dort/Wallace/Joe/Wiggins/Jaylin Williams on OKC combined for 8.71 WIDE OPEN 3PA per game. This is a lot of guys but Minnesota has tighter rotations than OKC and we should see these same open looks for guys like McDaniels/NAW/Conley/Reid. With the defensive angle I really like NAW here with a line at 6.5.

🏀NBA Play #2🌟 PJ Washington U 14.5 PA -120 Fanatics Collab w/ @serbianbacapper PJ had a large impact last series vs. OKC who heavily trapped Luka and Kyrie and left the corners wide open. This Minnesota defense is an entirely different animal and has the personnel to play this differently without blitzing the hell out of these guys - a good sell high spot for PJ in my opinion. Remember what happened to Grayson Allen? Remember what happened to MPJ?? MPJ’s last 4 games of the Conference Semis: - 7 pts (3-12 FG) 34 mins - 8 pts (3-9 FG) 31 mins - 6 pts (2-10 FG) 36 mins - 4 pts (2-4 FG) 35 mins CnS specialists are not the guys to back in this series. The Wolves are quick to their close outs and shots will be contested. Last series PJ had 27 WIDE OPEN 3PA which led the team. He also saw 20 open 3PA. It’s also important to note that PJ took ZERO 3PA in tight coverage last series and MPJ took 1.1 3PA per game in tight coverage. PJ won’t be jacking these up. Also important to note that PJ is much worse on the road. He’s averaging 22.3% less points per 36 away vs. at home this season with less volume as well. As for assists, 55.6% of PJ’s assists in the playoffs have come from threes, primarily off a trap when he makes the extra pass to the open corner from the wing (33.3% of assists from the corners). Minnesota has allowed the 4th least 3pt assists per game in the playoffs (9th least from the corners). This compared to the Thunder last series who allowed the 6th most 3pt assists per game in the playoffs and the 2nd most from the corners. LIKE=TAILING🔥

🏀Early look for DAL @ MIN Game 1🌟 Kyrie Irving O 21.5 Pts -113 FD Collab w/ @serbianbacapper 🔥 This one is an absolute no-brainer for me, his line will be moved at 26.5 - 27.5 until this series finishes (remember, we played PJ Washington on o10.5 first game against the OKC his line was set at 16.5 at some points; we played MPJ u17.5 first game against the MIN, his line was set at 12.5 at some points - I hope we will have enough LUCK with this one, hopefully. something GOOD will return to us in this fucking PO series) J-Mac will be on Luka Doncic, and Kyrie will probably play against Ant/Conley in what should be a drop-coverage defense with a lot of switching - and whenever you have that kind of D against this kind of player, you know what should you do! Kyrie will see a significantly easier MUP here - he won't get double-teamed and trapped all game long like he did vs Oklahoma, nor he should see a clogging D., he needs to step up big in terms of scoring, he just can't be on a backseats like he was in the series against the OKC PJ Washington & DJJ might struggle a lot throughout this series - we saw how good Conley was in guarding KCP, and he absolutely eliminated his 3-point game, I expect him to do similar stuff with DJJs as well - on the other side, PJ will constantly be guarded by KAT, his 3-point shooting might be shut-down as well, and on top of that all, PJ might be in a huge PF problem throughout this series - he constantly needs to guard Ant/KAT/Reid. Dallas needs to rely heavily on Irving's scoring game in this series. Kyrie should be much more aggressive here, I think he will be taking more than 16 FGA in every single game in this series - with that dose of consumption while playing 37+ minutes, he managed to cover this line in 24/L25 games. He played once this season against the MIN, and in that game, Kyrie scored 35 points!

🏀NBA Play #2🌟 Myles Turner O 15.5 Pts -120 DK (1u) Myles Turner 20+ Pts 🪜 +230 FD (0.25u) This is a great matchup for Turner based on the drop coverage the Celtics’ run plus the size advantage he has over Horford with KP still out here. Horford drops so far on the PnR and when Hali’s man chases him, Turner is repeatedly left wide open for pick and pop threes. Hali can be more of a scorer here with the drop coverage, but he’s an unselfish player and it’s there all game on film. Turner should also see some good opportunities vs. Horford in single coverage in the paint with his size advantage and could see some easy put-backs as well on the offensive glass. Turner absolutely shredded the Bucks who play a very similar drop coverage where he saw the same open looks. His line for points settled at 20.5 towards the end of that series. Turner is over this line in 9/12 away games this season with 30-40 minutes and all current starters active. Must play here imo.

🏀NBA Play #1🌟 Jayson Tatum U 29.5 Pts -110 Fanatics “He’s dropped 30+ in every game vs. Indy this season you idiot” True, and that’s why his line is set at 29.5. However, if you look a bit deeper you’ll see why this is a fantastic sell high spot. Tatum has only played one game vs. this current Pacers squad on 1/30/24 after they traded for Siakam, who was his primary defender in the 2H when Tatum scored only 7 points in 21 minutes shooting 2-7 FG. Tatum scored 23 in the first half primarily defended by Nesmith with Siakam on JB (switched 2H). Tatum has really struggled when being guarded by Siakam this season, shooting 1-5 and scoring only 2 of his team’s 36 points through 42.6 partial possessions in this matchup. We should see this again tonight as this gave the Pacers success, outscoring Boston 58-48 in the 2H in their last matchup despite falling short. We should see Siakam on Tatum, Nesmith on Brown, and Nembhard on White.

🏀Early NBA Play for MIN @ DEN Nikola Jokic O 8.5 AST -128 FD Running this back and grabbing it early. “If they send doubles his way (which I expect) he’ll obviously be forced to pass out of it. Denver has shooters more than capable and his chemistry with AG remains unmatched. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends with 90 passes and 20+ pAST today.” - last write-up. Well we certainly saw Jokic getting doubled as the Wolves took the “anyone but Jokic” approach. However, the supporting cast was not capable of knocking down open shots last night. He finished with 72 passes and 15 pAST through three quarters, on pace for just about what I expected. Despite the scheme change for Minnesota and his passing volume, Denver just struggled to see anything go down. Joker finished with 2 AST/15 pAST with a 13.3% conversion rate which is the lowest I’ve ever seen with that volume. Back at home, role players should have an easier time making shots with the crowd on their side. I think we’ll see 90-100 passes and 20+ pAST, which makes it impossible for me not to run this back. LIKE = TAILING🔥

🏀 NBA Play #2 Karl-Anthony Towns O 2.5 Assists -134 FD Collab w/ @QuentinLocks 🔥 This is an underrated spot for KAT. He is over this line in 4/4 games with Gobert in this series and 5/5 games against Denver this season when Gobert is healthy. In this series we have seen KAT play upwards of 38 minutes like he has done so in the last two games. With the season on the line tonight at home, we can expect another big minutes night for him. In this series, KAT has averaged 5.0 pAst per game with Gobert and 3.3 assists per game. In the last game, we saw KAT rack up 4 assists on 7 potentials. Those 4 assists came in two different situations. The first assist came in the first quarter. KAT was posting up on Holiday with NAW on the wing with the ball. NAW dumps it down to KAT and Murray immediately helps and doubles KAT leaving NAW wide open on the wing for a wide open 3. The next 3 assists came in the second half, all in the same scenario and all to the same teammate, Gobert. In all of these situations, Jokic slides over to help defending the driving Towns, leaving easy dump offs to Gobert for a dunk or layup (2 Assists) or an Alley-Oop (1 Assist). These came from KAT either driving the lane or Gobert screen and roll to the bucket. Both of these scenarios drew Jokic over to help. We should see even more focus on KAT scoring wise as he has averaged 18.0 PPG and 18.5 FGA per game in the last two games. Love this spot for KAT tonight. A little juiced, but I’m willing to pay for it for this one. LIKE = TAILING❤️

🏀NBA Play #1 Nikola Jokic U29.5 PTS -105 DK (0.5u) Nikola Jokic O8.5 AST -145 BetMGM (0.5u) Nikola Jokic Triple Double +185 ESPN (0.5u) These all go with the same narrative. I assume the Wolves will force the Nuggets to beat them with anyone but Jokic. We all saw what happened when they gave Jokic single coverage with Rudy. It’s not like Rudy played bad defense, he did all that he could. It just didn’t matter, Jokic is just such an elite scorer that they can’t afford to do this again in my opinion. If they send doubles his way (which I expect) he’ll obviously be forced to pass out of it. Denver has shooters more than capable and his chemistry with AG remains unmatched. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends with 90 passes and 20+ pAST today.

🏀 NBA Recap Nice lil 2-0 SWEEP 🧹🧹 ✅ Pascal Siakam O 20.5 Pts ✅ Nickeil Alexander-Walker O 15.5 PRA +1.95u

🏀NBA Play #2 Jayson Tatum O 7.5 1Q Pts -104 Caesars (0.5u) Jayson Tatum U 5.5 Ast -130 ESPN (0.5u) Running this back but with 1Q points which was pointed out to me by @a1fantasy23 With the Celtics’ rotations in this series he’s played the entire 1Q and is over this line in 3/3 games. He’s over in 10/10 without Kristaps playing 12 minutes in the 1Q this season. The Cavs should continue to limit CnS threes and force them to win off the dribble. The Cavs’ effort to clamp the perimeter gave us more iso ball from Tatum and Brown. This shuts down passing lanes and makes Tatum more of a scorer than a facilitator. He had 6 AST/5pAST in game 2 and 6 AST/8pAST in game 3 converting at a combined 92% which is unsustainable. Despite some of these being high quality shots at the rim in transition, we can expect some negative regression here on the road.

🏀NBA Play #1 Derrick Jones Jr. O 8.5 Pts -125 Bet365 Buy low spot here. DJJ’s shooting volume has exceeded this line in the last two games with 12, 10 FGA. However, he’s shot a combined 4-22 (18.2%) through this stretch. The volume is consistent and I think we can expect some positive regression at home. He’s covered this line in 14/15 games this season with 10-13 FGA and he’s over in 4/5 games this season with Kyrie/Luka/PJ/Green/Hardaway active playing 25-35 minutes. OKC protects the rim very well and he’s seen a lot of contested and blocked shots. However, we should continue to see some opportunities in transition for DJJ and there will be open looks in the corners/cutting from the weak side as there have been all series when the defense collapses on Luka and Kyrie. When asked about PJ Washington, Mark Daigneault said that they have to choose their priorities on defense, and “they can’t have too many”. He basically went on to say that they will continue to force players other than Luka and Kyrie to beat them which we saw again in game 3. I still expect them to blitz and trap both of these guys which will open up opportunities for role players.

🏀NBA Play #4 Collab w/ @QuentinLocks Jrue Holiday U 4.5 Reb +120 DK Great value here. Jrue is under this line in 4/5 games against Cleveland since the season began, including Game 2 of the Conference Semis where he only had 2 rebounds on 4 rebound chances. Jrue is tasked with guarding Donovan Mitchell who’s seen 33% usage this series and keeps him out of position for rebounds. He grabbed 6 rebounds on 8 rebounds chances in game 1, but only 2 on 4 rebound chances in game 2. The reason he saw only 4 rebound chances in 35 minutes last game was the Cavs’ offensive scheme change to take less threes and beat the Celtics down low by involving Evan Mobley a whole lot more. The Cavs shot 42 threes in game 1 and only 28 in game 2. This is important because more than half of Jrue’s defensive rebounds come from 3PA. We can’t expect the Cavs to shoot 46.4% again from deep, but they should be efficient at home. Jrue should see limited rebound opportunities once again. This regular season, Jrue is only averaging 7.0 rebound chances against the Cavs with an average distance of 11.4 feet. Like = Tailing❤️

🏀NBA Play #2-3 Jayson Tatum U 5.5 Ast -142 DK (0.5u) Jayson Tatum O 27.5 Pts -108 BetRivers (0.5u) A half unit on each of these as they go hand in hand. The Cavs’ goal in game 2 was to limit the CnS threes from the Celtics and force them to win off the dribble. It worked, and I don’t anticipate them changing much defensively. The Celtics’ shot 11 less threes in game 2 than they did in game 1. Most CnS threes were highly contested and we saw a lot more pull-up attempts. The Cavs’ effort to clamp the perimeter gave us more iso ball from Tatum and Brown. This shuts down passing lanes and makes Tatum more of a scorer than a facilitator. He had 6 assists last game converting over 100% on 5 pAST which is an outlier game. We should expect some negative regression here on the road with the expected game script. Tatum has been very inefficient in the playoffs so far. This game has big implications for him specifically, and his team needs him to score the basketball. I think we should see high volume. It just makes too much sense.

🏀NBA Play #1 Derrick Lively O 12.5 PRA -110 ESPN Buying low on Lively here. He’s coming off a poor 1-7 shooting performance where he struggled to finish. However, pretty much all of these were high quality looks at the rim. I understand OKC has a solid paint defense, but Lively is shooting 2-10 (20.0 FG%) this series which is well below his season average of 74.7%. I think we can expect some positive regression here, especially back home for game 3. He ran into some foul trouble in the 1H of game 1 and only played 13 minutes in a blowout loss. I think we can expect 18-22. Gafford also injured his hand last game. He returned and it didn’t seem to be an issue, but worth mentioning. Maxi Kebler remains out as well. LIvely is over in 12/17 games this season playing 16-24 minutes with Gafford and the lther current Mavs starters active.

🏀 NBA Play #1 Nikola Jokic O 28.5 Pts -120 ESPN Rudy is back so we can expect Minnesota to use him as a roamer like we saw in game 1. This made Jokic a scorer as he consistently got 1v1 opportunities. In game 1 he scored 32 points shooting 11-25. We should expect this kind of production again with this pretty much being the series right here. If the Nugs go down 3-0 it’s most likely over. Simple, but it’s a must play. Will probably be a community play in the am.