Serious Stocks Guy

NYC
Joined April 2013
It is no longer safe to have money on blockchains anymore. Every day we get more and more evidence that this is true.
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Replying to @onchainmo
even worse, my estimates would be lower here because the person who doesn’t pay taxes probably loses more to the market
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Newport Beach has a Flock camera at basically every intersection now, every day I find more reasons to love this town
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fwiw Ken Griffin basically said the same thing yday
Based16z shares his advice for young people looking to achieve financial freedom “I've been spending a lot of time right now working on Whop. I think that's really interesting and also embodies a lot of how you might describe the set of options for someone with the goal of achieving things in an economic sense” “I think that's a goal for a lot of people and was definitely a goal for me, to get my own economic freedom because I always felt somewhat hamstrung by it” “My parents could be like, ‘Hey, you can't do this. We're not going to support this or we can't afford this,’ or whatever” “If you have that as a goal then I think it's good to not go into a traditional job and try to do something on the internet for yourself and build equity in it or build skill in it or build specific knowledge” “What that is, is just so changing and I'm probably too old even to understand what the coolest one is. Maybe it's building Roblox games now right? There's some kids going insane on that” “Part of the Whop thesis is just like hey the smartest and most motivated people in the world are going to try to figure out their own things to do and it's going to be ever changing and an ever evolving meta” “It's even beyond crypto. I wouldn't tell someone, ‘Hey, go into crypto trading.’ If you had a real passion for that, I'm sure you can still do well starting from nothing” “You can make it doing anything as long as you love it” “You gotta work on something that's interesting to you, that's working for yourself, that's probably a little bit new and is hard to explain to old people and that you're going to have fun with”
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Ethan retweeted
I don't know what to say on the valuation of frontier models or bottleneck trades, but a productivity boom from AI is absolutely happening its just a matter of how setup the business is for it and how skilled the users are which is likely causing a dispersion in teh data. Internally at @Blockworks we've hit a genuinely absurd acceleration in productivity in recent months, it's insane. We live in the future. Anyone saying otherwise I'm just going to attribute it to a skill issue.
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I can’t believe they actually ran primary debates in 2024 lmao who are we kidding here
Here was Chris Christie telling Vivek Ramaswamy #GOPDebate that he's "the most obnoxious blowhard in America" to "shut up for a little while" and
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I’m going to say something spicy that’s going to piss a lot of you off… Republicans really need to elevate and highlight more women in our party who have NOT had bizarre or botched plastic surgery that is both distracting and made a mockery all over the internet.
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Crypto is a series of adversarial games The adversaries got better over the years as the profit pool shrank. The dumbest person you know has their sixth DAO vote for another 8 figure home renovation. The smartest person you know is launching a rape casino for less than that.
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A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN. First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex. Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs. That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right. The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics. There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway. Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.
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The Guaranteed Bullish Rate Hike into the Guaranteed October Seasonality Pump into the Guaranteed Black Monday Dump into the Guaranteed Post-Midterm Bull Market All going according to plan.
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lowkey was kinda hoping for a black monday bc that would be the easiest bid in the world
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got the HRT gang back together!
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The Guaranteed Black Monday Crash
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What happened in 2017? I assume a bunch of existing places got reclassified or smth
BREAKING: The number of restaurants in New York dropped ~2,000 YoY in Q1 2026, posting its largest YoY decline in at least 36 years. This surpasses even the worst contraction recorded in any quarter during the 2020 pandemic. The number of eating and drinking places in New York State has now declined YoY for 4 consecutive quarters, its longest streak since 2021. This comes as restaurants are facing surging operating expenses, including insurance premiums, wages, interest rates, utilities, and health coverage, with overall costs rising faster than national averages. Last year, employee health insurance costs jumped +12.9% for New York-area service firms, business insurance rose +7.0%, while utility costs surged +8.5%, according to the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce. Skyrocketing costs are crushing New York restaurants.
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dont know, i just look at charts reasoning for my being bullish past week was that a higher high here would maintain bullish structure and trend weekly bearish engulfing to downside breaks trend & makes it more likely the inefficient move we had on the way up gets filled this setup + equities having reason to selloff w/ macro/inflation fears + anthropic growth slowdown is enough to be concerned
Replying to @blknoiz06
What's your thoughts on the black monday doom talk?
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Utilities are saying this rates move is wrapping up. How cute do you want to get here? Up to you…
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Market's now pricing a hiking cycle that takes us to around 5% September 2027. Seems ridiculous to me.
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There's a '0% chance' AI will end the world by 2030, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang assures trib.al/97Dcloh
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Chairman Warsh has shown that he has steel in his spine. My @FT column. Link: giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…
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