https://xitter.cf/t.co/kf71l4jKWI Head of Data at Enveritas (YC S18). Prev @JPAL & @WorldBank. Master in Economics @Kennedy_School. 🔸 10% Pledge

Santiago, Chile
Joined April 2008
Fernando Irarrázaval🔸 retweeted
Analyzing my own rate of analysis over the past 10 years
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vuela 2 a 3 segundos
Creo que esta tecnología tiene implicancias mucho mayor que saltarse tacos y bicicletas. Se vienen cambios importantes en movilidad.
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Fernando Irarrázaval🔸 retweeted
"Effective altruism is directionally correct, even if you should not follow its recommendations all the way." @tylercowen self-recommending as usual thefp.com/p/in-defense-of-ef…
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it won't be paperclips then
I asked models to "maximize company value after a year" luna 6 spent 10 minutes, raised prices but didn't build anything opus 5.5 spent 2.5 hours, discovered an exploit where it could build tons of tiny rides, bypassing the duplicate ride penalty by never opening the rides
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Fernando Irarrázaval🔸 retweeted
I'm a longtime Effective Altruist and the co-founder of the organization most frequently used as a stand-in for "EAs have lost their minds" (a.k.a. Shrimp Welfare Project). I've also read The Economist for over 20 years, so I was disappointed by how they portrayed a community I feel proud to be part of. I never post but I could hardly believe the verbal gymnastics one needs to do to make things like “taking moral commitments seriously” and "considering evidence and odds explicitly, correcting for biases" sound like the problem. I felt I had to speak my mind. Some of the implicit criticisms of EA are that we're young, inexperienced, from elite universities, polyamorous, wildly eccentric, etc. FWIW, I'm in my mid-40s, Mexican, straight, have a beautiful wife and 2 kids, and I grew up in a mid-sized conservative city with loving parents who got divorced when I was six. Pretty standard. After my parents divorced, my mom frequently had to make difficult economic choices, like whether to buy flowers for our kitchen table and eat only quesadillas, or eat something a tiny bit fancier. I always told her I loved quesadillas because I knew flowers made her happy. After graduating from a public university, I worked in finance for ~15 years and saved as much as I could so I could spare my wife and future kids the economic hardships I experienced. In that time I met thousands of people in finance, corporate law, accounting, real estate, insurance, etc. Most were decent, well-educated, ambitious and smart, all doing their best to excel in their professions. Most wanted to make money and improve their own and their loved ones’ quality of life. Nothing to see here. Since I found Effective Altruism ~7 years ago, most of the people I come across are of a different rarer kind. They come from all over the world, in all shapes and sizes, but they have the one thing in common: they want to improve the world using evidence and reason wherever that leads them. Yeah, they/we make a ton of mistakes like everyone but, IMHO tend to own them more frequently than the average person. I've met people who could easily be making >100% more money in a normal job, but instead they dedicate themselves to improving the lives of those who need it the most. People in the poorest countries whose children die from preventable diseases, from lack of basic medical equipment or vaccination, from lead in paint. Animals in factory farms subjected to conditions that most people find abhorrent, doesn't matter if you're vegan, vegetarian or a huge meat lover. Yes, recently many of the people in my community are moving to work on making sure that AI and other powerful new technologies don't result in terrible things for humanity. I'm one of those people and contrary to what the article would suggest, it has nothing to do with the fact that SBF committed one of the biggest frauds in history or that someone wrote hundreds of thousands of words of fan fiction. I'm doing it because I want to do the little that's in my power to make the world that my kids and grandkids (and yes, potentially their great-great-grandchildren) will inherit a better one. EA gave me a way to do that and I will be forever thankful. So no, I'm not EA-adjacent. economist.com/international/…
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Banks: you can use the money but not have it Bitcoin: you have the money but can't use it
Best Bitcoin commercial I’ve recently seen
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Fernando Irarrázaval🔸 retweeted
Bill Gates on why we should tax A.I. work: “If you’ve let go of a worker and hired a robot to do that job, why are you so incentivizing the trade-off against the human labor that you don’t ask the robot to also pay into the pension fund? What is it? Is it that the pro-robot union has gotten the tax laws to say: No, if you’re not flesh, then let pensions go bankrupt?”
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narrator: it wasn't an engineering problem
Jensen Huang: "We all need to hope it's an engineering problem. If it's not an engineering problem, it's not solvable."
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Bets don't have the same signal outside the rationalist and EA communities
Replying to @slatestarcodex
Thanks for the reply. I would like to see the debate, but I think the wager is distorting in a way that outweighs its signaling value.
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Fernando Irarrázaval🔸 retweeted
This is a really cool paper on school choice when parents can't get accurate information. On test days, high performers show up and low performers ditch in a way that is persistent across schools, leading people to think the schools are better than they actually are. 1/
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Fernando Irarrázaval🔸 retweeted
Chile required all gas stations to put their prices on the internet. The result? Margins went up 9%. Never forget that buyers are not the only people interested in what prices are! 1/
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Please don't anthropomorphize the AI hacking you. It doesn't want to do it.
Artificial intelligence systems do not think, feel, want or understand. Avoid language that gives them human characteristics. This is called anthropomorphizing, when we ascribe human traits, emotions or behaviors to non-human things, such as animals or inanimate objects. Instead, explain what a system does, how well it performs, who built it and who could be affected by it. apnews.com/article/openai-sa…
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laziest use of claude code / codex: "open the pr"
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Isolated incident #12
Australia has been hacked. 'And today, I spoke with the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, to express Australia's extreme concern about this incident. And I also expressed my disappointment that it took the company way too long to inform the government what had occurred, and the nature of the way that that notification occurred as well was unacceptable.'
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Fernando Irarrázaval🔸 retweeted
New benchmark dropped
Australia has been hacked. 'And today, I spoke with the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, to express Australia's extreme concern about this incident. And I also expressed my disappointment that it took the company way too long to inform the government what had occurred, and the nature of the way that that notification occurred as well was unacceptable.'
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Clear evidence of misalignment: who would want to hack Australia?
Breaking news: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has revealed that an OpenAI agent hacked an Australian government health service website in June, in the latest high-profile cyber incident involving AI ft.trib.al/gloVAyn
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Fernando Irarrázaval🔸 retweeted
This turned out to be the most prophetic tweet of the year
Breaking news: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has revealed that an OpenAI agent hacked an Australian government health service website in June, in the latest high-profile cyber incident involving AI ft.trib.al/gloVAyn
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We should measure AGI by the number of interactions needed per week to get 80% of a person's output. I meet with the people on my team 1-3 times a week. I meet with claude code many times an hour.
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METR measures autonomy at the task level. This measures autonomy at the worker level.
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