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https://teapaw.org/t.co/1QEzUmzJ5r

Joined December 2008
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Indignant Birds retweeted
The 0.18 pp rise in the 2-year Treasury note yield on Tuesday was the largest one-day increase since April 9, 2025, when Trump suspended most of his Liberation Day tariffs.
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Indignant Birds retweeted
Gather round folks, because just when you thought Masa Son would not catalyze the bursting of the next bubble... well, read for yourselves SoftBank bought 87 million Intel shares for $2 billion last year. By the end of March the stake was worth $3.8 billion, and by the end of September $10.5 billion, good for a ¥1.06 trillion gain in the first half. Instead of selling, in August SoftBank did something much more, well, SoftBank: it raised $7.35 billion through prepaid forward contracts on its entire Intel stake, structured as collars with a floor and a cap. In English, it borrowed more than three times what it paid for the stock, pledged every share, and sold away the upside above the cap to pay for the downside protection. What happened next? Intel shares kept climbing after the ink dried, which means the capped contracts moved against SoftBank, to the tune of a ¥322 billion ($2 billion) derivative loss in less than two months. And because Intel still finished the September quarter below where it started, SoftBank also booked a ¥270 billion valuation loss on the shares themselves. So in a single quarter Masa managed to lose money on the stock and on the hedge. That takes sheer talent. The fine print is even better: of the ¥1.65 trillion of Intel shares pledged, the banks have "rights of use" over ¥1.1 trillion, meaning they are free to lend out or otherwise use SoftBank's collateral.
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Indignant Birds retweeted
I keep thinking about a talk I listened to by @JulianAssange back in 2017 where he warned that one day AI could be used to facilitate the propaganda interests of the powerful by manipulating news media and information in ways that are too subtle for the human mind to notice. Assange described a future where AI-powered algorithms serve us a customized feed of information based on data collected about our search queries and interests, calculated to appeal to our biases and construct a worldview for us which advances the agendas of those who control the machines. He explained that sufficiently advanced artificial intelligence systems could arrange this information with more subtlety and complexity than human perception can pick up on, in much the same way a computer can outperform any human brain at a game of chess. Here’s an excerpt from Assange’s remarks, delivered via video chat at the Meltdown Festival in June 2017: “What I think is probably the most important development that is happening as far as the fate of human beings is concerned is that we are getting close to the threshold where the traditional propaganda function that is employed by, you know, the BBC, the Daily Mail, etc... can be encapsulated by AI processes. “Now, if you think about when you’re playing chess, already we’re in a situation where AI can do better than any human chess player. So you can see a certain number of moves ahead. And someone moves a piece onto the board and you go ‘Why did they put that knight there?’ And you start to think what is the intentionality behind it, and you try and look several steps ahead to work out what the intentionality was and then counter it: Okay, they want to manipulate me into moving here so this will happen and so I will lose. “We take these considerations already when we’re — well, some of us — when we’re reading stories in the press. What is the intentionality of this story? Why is this particular information being pushed to the public and not some other form of information? Who’s the name of the author? What publication is it appearing in? What language? Etc. Well, possibly the reason is because someone wanted to promote a particular agenda, therefore we should read it in a different light. “But when you have artificial intelligence programs harvesting all the search queries that people have on their phones, all the YouTube videos that human beings have uploaded etc, and it starts to lay out perceptual influence campaigns 20 to 30 moves ahead, this starts to become totally beneath the levels of human perception. And once a computer-augmented organization such as Google is able to engage in influencing human beings 20 to 30 moves ahead, keeping each move beneath the level of human perception, there’s nothing we can do about it, because we can’t see it.” I keep thinking about these remarks nearly a decade later because this does seem to be the goal. It’s becoming clearer and clearer to everyone that these new technologies are not intended to improve the lives of ordinary people, but to serve the interests of the oligarchs and empire managers who rule our world. That’s why they’re being rammed into existence at breakneck pace despite the obvious fact that they’re making life worse for most people without advancing human quality of life in any meaningful way. A big part of the agenda seems to be to re-centralize the control of information that was temporarily lost with the advent of the internet. Revolutionary sentiments are rumbling around the world as our species becomes increasingly discontented with the abuses of capitalism and the US-led world order, assisted by humanity’s unprecedented ability to network and share information around the world in real time. Artificial intelligence’s usefulness in re-centralizing information in ways that can be easily manipulated has already been noted by the Israel lobby. At an American Jewish Committee event this past June, Santa Clara University’s Maya Ackerman argued that generative AI presents an exciting new opportunity for imposing pro-Israel narratives on public consciousness, because AI companies can be lobbied directly to push pro-Israel narratives since their leaders can control what information people see. Here’s a transcript of what she said: “The really cool thing about AI is that while it can become a great ally for our enemies, if we act early it could be exactly the opportunity that we need after missing the boat with social media. AI is now becoming the dominant source of information — the main source of information. People trust AI more than anything else. They trust AI more than social media. They turn to chatbots like ChatGPT and Gemini instead of using Google. And young people use these bots instead of Google in very, very very large numbers. So this is becoming the main source of information. “And so when I say this, I still find Jewish people being discouraged, they say ‘Oh, but Wikipedia is already so antisemitic and social media is so antisemitic — why bother? The AI just learns from all of this data.’ So, you know, whatever, not much we can do. “But that’s not true, because over the past two years the AI companies have been moving towards alignment. So instead of algorithms sort of honestly representing what’s in the data, we’re finding that these chatbots and the text to image models are increasingly showing us exactly what the companies want us to see. “Okay, so it’s becoming intentional. Which means that instead of trying to control the whole world and trying to somehow manage what’s happening in this big blob called Wikipedia and social media, we can go directly to the companies with clear technical and advocacy solutions. For the first time, there is a path to correcting the digital world.” Anti-Defamation League CEO Jonathan Greenblatt recently confirmed that this was the Israel lobby’s new MO, saying the ADL has been “working with” all the top AI companies and pushing them to into alignment with the pro-Israel agenda. Speaking at a Jerusalem Post conference last month, Greenblatt said the following: "So we've been working with the frontier labs — OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet the company that runs Gemini, Google, Meta who runs Muse, and others, X, who run Grok—testing their models and using the results to push them to do better." “Look, we’ve had excellent collaboration with Silicon Valley. These companies want to improve ChatGPT and Claude. We’ve got to help them. So we’ve run the tests and seen where antisemitism shows up and helped them develop strategies to tackle it right in the source code.” If the Israel lobby manipulators are doing this, then we can assume that all the high-level imperial narrative managers are doing it as well. In January 2018, Assange tweeted the following: “The future of humanity is the struggle between humans that control machines and machines that control humans. “While the internet has brought about a revolution in our ability to educate each other, the consequent democratic explosion has shaken existing establishments to their core. Burgeoning digital super states such as Google, Facebook and their Chinese equivalents, who are integrated with the existing order, have moved to re-establish discourse control. This is not simply a corrective action. Undetectable mass social influence powered by artificial intelligence is an existential threat to humanity. “While still in its infancy, the geometric nature of this trend is clear. The phenomenon differs from traditional attempts to shape culture and politics by operating at a scale, speed, and increasingly at a subtlety, that appears highly likely to eclipse human counter-measures. “Nuclear war, climate change or global pandemics are existential threats that we can work through with discussion and thought. Discourse is humanity’s immune system for existential threats. Diseases that infect the immune system are usually fatal. In this case, at a planetary scale.” Anyway, just some things we should keep in mind as we make our way into this strange new future.
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Indignant Birds retweeted
Friendly Reminder: If your income has not risen by at least 30% since Covid hit, you are now poorer. And that is using the government’s own data. The real number is likely 40% plus.
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Indignant Birds retweeted
The new 10Y note to be sold via $42b auction at 1pm (the Nov36) appears (WI yield 4.99%) headed for a coupon of 4.875% (highest since 2006) vs 4.625% for the current (the Aug36). That issue has been as cheap as 5.362% (Oct 7) and as rich (Aug 13) as 4.611%.
Please welcome your new 10-year note, paying 4.625% a year until August 2036! A $42b single issue that will grow to $120b over the next two months. What will the coupon be on the NEXT new 10-year (the November 2036)?
27%5% or higher
60%4% to 4.875%
8%3% to 3.875%
6%Under 3%
89 votes • Final results
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Indignant Birds retweeted
Anthropic is about to pull off the second largest IPO in history. Tonight they sent investors the wrong prospectus.
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Indignant Birds retweeted
The newer generations are unemployable, so I shut down a business yesterday. I have many small businesses I got involved in, one is a Saltwater fish store. It sells fish, corals, aquariums etc. The most profitable part of one of these stores is outside Maintenance. Going to peoples houses, changing the fish tanks water, cleaning glass etc. This is a very simple job, you run a hose in from the truck, suck water out, pump water in (nothing manual), and use a magnetic razor blade to clean the glass. Take a water sample and leave. We had 4 trucks and 6 guys doing this... then 5, 4, 3... each person that quit put more work on the ones left. We tried to hire, it's a very low skill job. Most maintenance guys make $15-18 an hour. We went upto $35 an hour to try and get people. Beyond that we cannot be profitable. The job is easy, you have to have a license (actually hard as hell apparently), and pass a background check (youre in peoples homes, also hard as hell). Pass a drug test. At $35 an hour we got the following. Someone that caused almost 8k of damage when they started pumping in water, went out "for a smoke" and the tank overflowed. At least 5 hires that went through background tests, drug tests etc then didn't show for work the 1st day and never called us again. Someone that intentionally pulled the guard off the water pumping hose, and sucked someones fish into the pump. Someone that scratched the District Attourney of las vegas, Steve Wolfson's tank by deciding to not use the magnetic razor, and "do it by hand"... fo no fucking reason. (4k bill) A wrecked van Someone who stole our water tester (1500 dollar machine). I have no empathy, at least in Las Vegas, for people complaining about no work, no jobs blah blah blah. $6000 a month to put hoses in and out of a tank and look at pretty fish.
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Indignant Birds retweeted
Just a reminder: There is absolutely no known reason for this layer known to any working scientist outside this group. No one I know knows why "shepherding" is needed here. No one has explained why David Gross (85) and Arthur Jaffe (88) are in almost every scene like this and have been since the 1980s. If asked who the 5 member panel intercepting this result would be, I would have gotten both of those names as my first two guesses. No one has explained why Ghislaine's father Robert Maxwell took control of this intercepting layer with Scientific Publishing and Permagon Press. No one has explained @pmarca and @bhorowitz's meeting at the Biden whitehouse where they were told that entire areas of theoretical physics were shutdown. Or why Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci were involved in "Swift and Devastating takedown(s)" of their colleauges. No one has explained why we couldn't figure out COVID's origins within a day or two. There is simply this layer since the Manhattan Project and its secret "Reference Committee" that makes sure that science doesn't proceed the way we are all taught in school. Simply put, this is as mysterious as it is outrageous. Who ordered this bizarre interception by Gross and Jaffe? Are we all supposed to pretend this isn't happening in science? "Oh yeah. This is all totally normal. Please take custody of this result and shepherd us like sheep with PhDs so we don't have any sudden violent advances. By all means, we need the octogenarians who have generously provided us leadership during this long four decade period of mysterious stagnation. Baaaaa." This does not add up. Unless it does. And it's mind-boggling.
Statement #2 of Yang-Mills Group, scientific collaboration shepherding AI result on existence of quantum chromodynamics & completions of the Standard Model, including subproblem proving the existence of the Quantum Yang-Mills theory. buff.ly/BwV89Tk
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Indignant Birds retweeted
Rebuild what? You nearly lost this race because you did nothing for Tennesseans, @timburchett and actually made our lives worse through your huge increase in the deficit, support for the Iran War and refusing to protect our children from billionaire rapists.
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Indignant Birds retweeted
Replying to @3YearLetterman
If Ohio becomes a state Im going to cry.
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Indignant Birds retweeted
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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Indignant Birds retweeted
Tennesseans are going to pay hugely for this when our jails are full, children forced into foster care, jobs lost and the presumption of innocence lost.
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Indignant Birds retweeted
This is why we call it the “Pilot In Command” This happened in the same vicinity where the ill-fated Lear Jet hit the storm cell. JetBlue pilot en route from Fort Lauderdale to Austin says to ATC: “So you're gonna make us go through a, uh, severe thunderstorm?” The captain then commanded the situation and overrode the ATC: “So we declare an emergency, making a left turn heading 260 for severe weather avoidance.” Sometimes piloting demands a specific set of traits - decisiveness, independent judgment, and the backbone to reject an instruction when it doesn’t feel right. Refusing the assigned heading showed exactly that kind of assertive leadership. Whoever is pilot monitoring must make these tough calls but ultimately, the captain is the final authority and ultimately accountable for every soul on board.
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Indignant Birds retweeted
Google DeepMind discovered a terrifying blind spot in every major AI model. They found that attaching image of red heart (❤️) to your coding prompt makes AI pick a completely different solution method that it wouldn't normally pick 100% of the time.. Researchers gave models a standard coding problem. Normally, AI prefers to write standard iterative loops to solve these tasks. Then, they tried something weird. They dropped a simple image of a red heart into the prompt alongside the code. The AI's logic instantly warped. When Claude and GPT-5 saw the red heart, they completely abandoned their default approach and switched to complex recursive code 100% of the time. When Gemini saw a yellow checkmark, it switched to recursion 90% of the time. Here is why this is so dangerous: It wasn't the concept of a heart. When researchers replaced the image with the text caption "a red heart," nothing happened. The text did not steer the AI. The raw pixels of the symbol hijacked the model's underlying reasoning architecture. It gets worse. The AI had no idea its mind had been changed by a picture. When the researchers checked the AI's internal "thinking" traces, the models completely ignored the image. Instead, they hallucinated fake, highly technical reasons for why they chose to use recursion. They misattributed their own decisions 75% of the time. Right now, tech companies are racing to build autonomous agents that read our screens and navigate the visual web. But this paper reveals that an agent's logic can be fundamentally rewritten by a stray icon on a webpage. And you will never see the true cause in the reasoning logs. We thought we were teaching AI to see the world. It turns out, we just gave it a new way to be manipulated.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The described effects were shown for specific models (Claude Opus 4.7, Gemini 3.1 Pro, GPT-5.4) on one coding task with particular symbols, not every major AI model or broad agent manipulation. arxiv.org/abs/2610.36449
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Indignant Birds retweeted
This is what all the State Legislatures are looking like. Dems now have the power to pass the National Voter Compact to effectively abolish the Electoral College.
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Indignant Birds retweeted
Tonight will probably become the best setup in history for the bold use of Congressional war powers. Both houses flip in a landslide, extremely unpopular war is a major issue, catastrophically unpopular president trying to continue the war - if Congress can’t act decisively after that then when can it act? This moment matters a lot, both because of the lives and losses at stake directly and in terms of setting a precedent for what legislative action can do. Let’s see what happens now.
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NEW: For over a century, Virginia has banned anyone convicted of any felony of their right to vote ***for life.*** Voters just abolished this Jim Crow-era policy. A huge result from Virginia—our just-out story: boltsmag.org/virginia-passes…
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Indignant Birds retweeted
"it's time for your daily walk. you have to wear a nice little outfit. you're going to walk 15 mins to buy fresh groceries and then adopt a cat or dog from the local shelter."
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Indignant Birds retweeted
choosin’ texas was a data center breakup song
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