Florian Buschek retweeted
There's lots of demand for travel, so airline capacity keeps growing, even though airlines are bad businesses that don't earn their cost of capital and are constantly squeezed by oil, wages and aircraft costs.
NVDA = Boeing/Airbus + GE/Safran (order-book pricing power, plus recurring aftermarket)
Memory = refiners (windfall profits when supply is tight, until the cycle turns)
Neoclouds = aircraft lessors (levered, contracted bets on the residual value of depreciating assets)
Shells/power/cooling = airports (nothing flies without them, so they get built)
Models = airlines (huge capex, price wars, compute is jet fuel, researchers are the pilots' union)
Apps that own the customer = Booking.com
The frontier models are fighting commoditization but market forces are trying to commoditize them.
If demand for intelligence is there (which it is), then the buildout will continue, even if returns are poor for many of the players. Travelers win. Airlines rarely do.
Florian Buschek retweeted
1/ Bevor man in ein themenbezogenes Investment geht, sollte man sich fragen, wie belastbar das Fundament dahinter überhaupt ist. Genau damit fangen wir an und @SebKrog & @FinSkeptic halten die aktuelle Aufrüstung erstmal gar nicht für einen...
youtube.com/watch?v=vjm2aN3J…
Florian Buschek retweeted
$CLMT Reposting why I'm ~100% all in w/ extreme conviction that CLMT should be a $80-$100 equity TODAY
1) We now have hard evidence Calumet core specialties biz (ex Montana Renewables) is annualizing ~$1B FCF @ $5 base oil cracks (structurally supported by Train 2 @ Shell Pearl GTL in Qatar down untill Q2-Q3'27) given the $280M cash outlay required to have redeemed $250M '28s @ 102 + accrued int & $16M of sale & leaseback @ Montana Terminal with cash generated from 7/1 thru 10/14 (*critical to note the $100M redemption on '28s @ 7/8 was NOT drawn on ABL, but generated w/ July cash flow per my convo w/ mgmt)
2) Over the next 12 mo's @ spot $3.50/gal RD index (structurally supported by the looming negative RIN bank come March + EPA stance on SRE's) MRL will do $650M EBITDA @ 87% ownership as SAF ramps 4kbpd --> 10kbpd @ $1/gal contracted premium to RD, less $103M of recently announced self-funded phase 2 growth capex, less $25M maintenance capex, less $35M inter-company loan interest paid to Calumet, less $0 cash interest on PIK'ing DOE loan = ~$500M FCF.
**If spot conditions last another 12 months....that is... $5/gal base oil cracks + $3.50 RD index margins....****
$CLMT will do $1.5B combined FCF on today's $4.3 billion market cap = 35% yield
Uses?
$1B FCF @ parent = organically pay down $175M remaining '28s @ 102 ($184M cash cost) , $200M '29s @ par > Jan 15, $555M '31s @ 104 make whole ($590M cash cost), cuts $90M cash interest.
$500M FCF @ MRL = organically pay down $408M intercompany loan balance + begin to pay down $100M of the $348M outstanding Warburg pref
________________________________________
Normalized mid-cycle FCF after 12 months of euphoria?
1) Completely de-levered Core specialties biz:
$300M mid-cycle EBITDA ($300M SPS + $50M PB + $20M Asphalt less $70M corporate)
- $75M recurring capex
- $0 cash interest ('28s, '29s, '31s wiped)
- $75M cash taxes after ~$1B federal NOL's expire
= $150M levered FCF
2) Montana Renewables:
$600M mid-cycle EBITDA @ 87% ownership @ $2.25 RD index & $0.35/gal fully loaded site opex & $0.30/gal feedstock transport (split $500M from 13kbpd SAF @ $1 premium+ 1kbpd RD, $15M from high octane naphta byproducts + $75M from LPG off-gas recovery getting normalized D5 RINs)
- $25M recurring maintenance capex
- $45M DOE loan cash interest on $900M balance
= $530M levered FCF
= ~$700M combined normalized 2028 mid-cycle levered FCF
/ 88M fully diluted shares outstanding
= $8 levered FCF per share
@ 12-15x (6-8% yield) = $96 - $120 per share
NPV discounted 2 years @ 10% = $80-$100 per share TODAY
$CLMT extrapolate the deleveraging cadence....mgmt wiped $266 million of debt in exactly 3.5 months since 7/1 thru 10/14 with > $5/gal base oil cracks in the core SPS biz (see pic). Whats left is $930 million of very high cost debt on the balance sheet @ $90 million of cash interest. ***If base oil cracks remain > $5/gal***, $930M of debt and $90 million of cash interest gets wiped in exactly 12 months (930/266 x 3.5 = 12 mo's). Whats $930M of deleverage + $90 million of cash interest worth to CLMT equity? ~$11/share of debt + ~$11/share of capitalized interest @ 10x = $22/share. With leverage significantly reduced, you get multiple expansion. Lets assume a conservative re-rate from 8x to 10x mid-cycle. Core mid-cycle EBITDA = $300M @ 10x = $3B. MRL phase 2 @ mid-cycle priced off the Dec '27 futures curve = $600M @ 10x = $6B. Core + MRL = $9B EV. Over this 12 month period, MRL cash flows @ $400M, takes out $400M intercompany loan. Roll the consolidated balance sheet forward to year end '27. With 87 million shares out, you have a $100+ stock. Very simple playbook.
Florian Buschek retweeted
This week @kevinmuir and @PatrickCeresna welcome to the show, Robert Mullen @MRAfunds Marathon Resource Advisors to discuss contrarian investing, portfolio hedging, long volatility, and why energy, copper, shipping, and other resource markets may be setting up for a major regime shift. youtu.be/pH6CR-5PclU
Florian Buschek retweeted
Ken Griffin explains why the rise of passive investing only works as long as active managers keep doing the research that sets prices
“So what’s very interesting is the rise of passive investing plays to the realization that markets are either efficient or semi-efficient."
"And it’s a way for investors to have low-cost exposure to either broad indices, to the world as a whole, or to specific sectors without having to pay the fees of active management."
"It’s been revolutionary for the world, this embracing of passive investing. But passive investing only works if there’s a meaningful community of people involved in fundamental research who are helping to set the pricing of securities."
"So passive investing requires the existence of capable, successful, and competitive traditional asset managers for the theory that underlies passive investing to actually play out, to actually manifest itself."
"So the rise of short-term investors helps to ensure that markets are efficient with respect to news that’s rapidly evolving. But we should really try to make sure that we take every step possible to make it that traditional asset managers have the ability to have prosperous and successful firms because they are so critical in the price discovery process that passive investing depends upon.”
Alex Sacerdote explains the scuttlebutt research process behind Whale Rock and why AI cannot replace it
“And so much of what we’re doing is we’re meeting with as many companies as humanly possible. We’re developing relationships with the management teams that we cover. We’re talking to the competitors."
"The system we use is right out of Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, which was written by Philip Fisher in the 1950s. And it’s the scuttlebutt approach."
"It’s growth investing. It’s get out there and talk to suppliers, customers, competitors, looking for the key characteristics of these leading companies and really developing conviction in them."
"Now, if it’s a new complicated area like ABF substrates or PCBs, we’re able to get up to speed on those things quickly, but it can’t pick stocks for you in any kind of a way."
"I will say that, if you’re an analyst who’s good at the blocking and tackling, there’s a role for that, but that role is you need to have obviously the insight on top."
"So we’re now like using AI to write notes or review the quarter, and those notes are much better, but there better be a really good paragraph on top, which is the wisdom. What does this mean? How does this deal with our thesis? What changed? don’t just be a reporter. So the AI can be a great reporter. It can’t quite pick into the future.”
Florian Buschek retweeted
In Q2, 2020, a client bought a refinery.
JV with one of the best energy operators of all time.
For obvious reasons, in Q2, 2020 nobody wanted anything to do with energy, or airports (the client bought an airport, too).
Fast forward to October 2026.
The client expects a dividend in 2026 from that one refinery ~=80% of their 2020 cost base.
Not bad.
So here’s the test: what asset or assets that people hate today might (we can only imagine) generate similar real cash returns five or six years hence?
🧐
Florian Buschek retweeted
I emailed Andrew privately right away with congratulations and now realize I should say something publicly as well. Andrew has been one of the very best publicly-prolific investing analysts, as well as a great person. I am pleased for him but unhappy for me that he is now telling us “No more Andrew for you!”
New post!
Farewell
yetanothervalueblog.com/p/fa…
Florian Buschek retweeted
Everyone who keeps sharing these short interest charts is missing the flows behind them. Most shops are not taking outright short bets. This is another effort to ease margin requirements across the street: banks providing balance sheet for more speculative bets are asking clients to post more short exposure.
The sequence on the street looks like this:
HF manager: “I want more margin.”
Bank: “Things look risky in public AI bets, and we’re already lending a lot against private AI bets. For some clients, we’ll extend more financing, but only if they add more short exposure to improve their collateral scores.”
HF manager: “Okay, I’ll short more stock against my main bet.”
That is how you end up with short exposures that look astronomically high while many end users remain heavily long tech. The additional shorts are supporting the financing of their main bets.
Which also tells the bigger story on why raw equity financing rates haven’t blown out the way they did ahead of the big SpaceX IPO in June, despite the fact that lending is slowing.
Florian Buschek retweeted
The special committee running GFL Environmental's sale process, as advised by CIBC, has finished its work, CTFN reported Thursday, and key existing equity holders now have critical decisions over the question of rolling their equity which will likely influence the outcome of the deal.
#mergers #infrastructure #privateequity #corpgov #corpfin
$GFL
Florian Buschek retweeted
Replying to @FBuschek
That’s tough Florian, both are primed for some great years ahead. As you can see by the price action there isn’t a great correlation which has portfolio benefits. I would size similar sizing although $clmt is looking cheap today!!! Throw some $dar into that biofuel gumbo and you have yourself a great trifecta.
$USIO is just an absolute no brainer here.
A few quotes from yday’s $USIO LD Micro presentation that dissect the full thesis:
1. ACH tailwinds and the growth flywheel
“Q3 for our ACH division set all-time records for us in volume. That is something really to say because we do a huge amount of volume in ACH. For us to grow that much, it is growing off a big number. Last quarter, third quarter, was the best ever, which beat the previous best, which was Q2 of this year. Q2 beat the previous best, which was Q1. I guess you’re kind of getting the story. The last six quarters have all record volumes for ACH. All-time records. Really excited about seeing that trend continue, but not only continue, continue in a big way for the third quarter.”
In fact, each business line is growing fast, even exponentially, w/ the exception of card issuing that has some meaningful programs launching soon.
2. Operating leverage
“We are really excited about the operating leverage that we are seeing... As we are making those new sales and our existing customer base is growing, we are not having to add incremental expenses, hire new people. We have the technology. You can see that those results are showing… Our tech stack is built. We just continue to evolve it. We do not really need to add SG&A to continue to add all this volume that we are doing. We might add some customer service positions because we have more accounts to support. That is not a huge SG&A hit.”
3. Catalyst #1: School voucher programs
“We currently, through a partner, process 37 state school voucher programs. In the past 12 months, that equates to $1.3 billion in payments. The great thing about these programs is they are recurring. Of those 37 states, five are active card programs… There is one additional state that is over a billion dollars that is in implementation, so really excited about this. Like I said, it is recurring payments. Just to give you an idea of the scale of a billion-dollar state, last year, Usio processed around $8 billion payments total. Therefore, the volume of these deals is significant.”
4. Catalyst #2: Usio Ion
“At any given time, we have between 80 and 100 million dollars of funds in our ecosystem. We believe that with Ion, there is access to another 300 million dollars in deposits. Why that is meaningful to us is when those funds are in our ecosystem, we are earning interest on that… It is a game changer for Usio as we increase our float, and that revenue goes straight to the bottom line.”
At the fed funds rate, that equates to $11-12M in 100% margin inflows. The CEO was even more optimistic later in the presentation:
“You know, we have today, every day, $80 million to $100 million that we’re earning interest off, that’s not our money. All of a sudden, that goes to $500 million. That is a new payment stream for us, income stream. It is 100% margin, so that will increase our margins quite a bit.”
5. Catalyst #3: Harris Computer
“Just a couple weeks ago, we announced a very exciting partnership with Harris Computer. Harris Computer is a massive organization under Constellation Software, which is a $60 billion company out of Canada. Harris Computer provides operating platforms for utilities and government entities. We partnered with Harris to be their preferred payments provider… This really is exciting for us. As you know, a single utility in San Antonio, for example, processes over a billion dollars in payments a year. When we are talking about the scale, it kind of blows what Usio in its current state out of the water. We are really excited about this.”
6. Catalyst #4: Guidance raise
“Looking forward, our guidance for the remainder of the year, which we raised after releasing Q2, is 14% to 16% revenue growth. We started the year with a 10% to 12% revenue growth. As you can see, the first half was at 17%. We remain conservative in our guidance and will continue to evaluate that as the remainder of the year progresses.”
The only chance to raise guidance is on Nov 10. Save the date.
Florian Buschek retweeted
A few quotes from yday’s $USIO LD Micro presentation that dissect the full thesis:
1. ACH tailwinds and the growth flywheel
“Q3 for our ACH division set all-time records for us in volume. That is something really to say because we do a huge amount of volume in ACH. For us to grow that much, it is growing off a big number. Last quarter, third quarter, was the best ever, which beat the previous best, which was Q2 of this year. Q2 beat the previous best, which was Q1. I guess you’re kind of getting the story. The last six quarters have all record volumes for ACH. All-time records. Really excited about seeing that trend continue, but not only continue, continue in a big way for the third quarter.”
In fact, each business line is growing fast, even exponentially, w/ the exception of card issuing that has some meaningful programs launching soon.
2. Operating leverage
“We are really excited about the operating leverage that we are seeing... As we are making those new sales and our existing customer base is growing, we are not having to add incremental expenses, hire new people. We have the technology. You can see that those results are showing… Our tech stack is built. We just continue to evolve it. We do not really need to add SG&A to continue to add all this volume that we are doing. We might add some customer service positions because we have more accounts to support. That is not a huge SG&A hit.”
3. Catalyst #1: School voucher programs
“We currently, through a partner, process 37 state school voucher programs. In the past 12 months, that equates to $1.3 billion in payments. The great thing about these programs is they are recurring. Of those 37 states, five are active card programs… There is one additional state that is over a billion dollars that is in implementation, so really excited about this. Like I said, it is recurring payments. Just to give you an idea of the scale of a billion-dollar state, last year, Usio processed around $8 billion payments total. Therefore, the volume of these deals is significant.”
4. Catalyst #2: Usio Ion
“At any given time, we have between 80 and 100 million dollars of funds in our ecosystem. We believe that with Ion, there is access to another 300 million dollars in deposits. Why that is meaningful to us is when those funds are in our ecosystem, we are earning interest on that… It is a game changer for Usio as we increase our float, and that revenue goes straight to the bottom line.”
At the fed funds rate, that equates to $11-12M in 100% margin inflows. The CEO was even more optimistic later in the presentation:
“You know, we have today, every day, $80 million to $100 million that we’re earning interest off, that’s not our money. All of a sudden, that goes to $500 million. That is a new payment stream for us, income stream. It is 100% margin, so that will increase our margins quite a bit.”
5. Catalyst #3: Harris Computer
“Just a couple weeks ago, we announced a very exciting partnership with Harris Computer. Harris Computer is a massive organization under Constellation Software, which is a $60 billion company out of Canada. Harris Computer provides operating platforms for utilities and government entities. We partnered with Harris to be their preferred payments provider… This really is exciting for us. As you know, a single utility in San Antonio, for example, processes over a billion dollars in payments a year. When we are talking about the scale, it kind of blows what Usio in its current state out of the water. We are really excited about this.”
6. Catalyst #4: Guidance raise
“Looking forward, our guidance for the remainder of the year, which we raised after releasing Q2, is 14% to 16% revenue growth. We started the year with a 10% to 12% revenue growth. As you can see, the first half was at 17%. We remain conservative in our guidance and will continue to evaluate that as the remainder of the year progresses.”
The only chance to raise guidance is on Nov 10. Save the date.
3-4 wks of news flow ahead for $USIO. Starting today at LD Micro, followed by Planet MicroCap next week and earnings shortly after. The updated deck has just been filed.
“During his remarks, Mr. Hoch will comment on third quarter performance of the Company’s ACH business, the company’s highest-margin business line, which set all-time quarterly processing records, surpassing second quarter 2026 performance, which was ACH’s previous best quarter. Compared to a year ago, third quarter 2026 ACH transactions processed grew 39%, dollars processed grew 26% and returned checks processed were up 44%.”
Re the school voucher programs, USIO has already been deployed in 5 states, w/ a 6th larger currently in implementation. The recently announced Harris deal is even larger (huge actually) and the company will start moving bigger accounts onto ION, an almost 100% margin product, next year.
In short, I expect a very strong beat-and-raise Q3.
SG&A should stay mostly flat for a year, if not longer. Just organically, that gets you to $0.35-0.40 in 2027 EPS. With Ohio, ION and Harris, the number could get silly but I’ll risk a prediction: sooner or later, USIO will get acquired @ ~$5.00-6.00+.
Florian Buschek retweeted
3-4 wks of news flow ahead for $USIO. Starting today at LD Micro, followed by Planet MicroCap next week and earnings shortly after. The updated deck has just been filed.
“During his remarks, Mr. Hoch will comment on third quarter performance of the Company’s ACH business, the company’s highest-margin business line, which set all-time quarterly processing records, surpassing second quarter 2026 performance, which was ACH’s previous best quarter. Compared to a year ago, third quarter 2026 ACH transactions processed grew 39%, dollars processed grew 26% and returned checks processed were up 44%.”
Re the school voucher programs, USIO has already been deployed in 5 states, w/ a 6th larger currently in implementation. The recently announced Harris deal is even larger (huge actually) and the company will start moving bigger accounts onto ION, an almost 100% margin product, next year.
In short, I expect a very strong beat-and-raise Q3.
SG&A should stay mostly flat for a year, if not longer. Just organically, that gets you to $0.35-0.40 in 2027 EPS. With Ohio, ION and Harris, the number could get silly but I’ll risk a prediction: sooner or later, USIO will get acquired @ ~$5.00-6.00+.
Really strong quarter for $USIO. Record processing volumes & transactions. Significant EBITDA beat and rev guide raise to +14-16% (still v conservative given H1 was already +17% and new programs are just ramping.)
3 of 4 segments grew 20%+. Gross margins up 400bps sequentially to 24% (mgmt comfortable in 23-25%, ION could push that further). SG&A down yoy despite the growth. 2nd consecutive quarter of profitability.
H2 setup is even better. School voucher programs (now ~5-6 states, up from 2, w/ one state alone ~$1.2B) ramp w the new school year + a university loan refund program (partner already serves 30 unis) goes live in H2.
Revs should accelerate from here and bottom line should follow. Expecting ~$8M in EBITDA this year and $13-14M+ next, which puts them on track to do smthing like $0.40 EPS in 2027.
Biz is almost all recurring, no customer concentration, high retention. NACHA data show strong ACH growth w USIO running ahead of the industry the last several Qs.
Trades <1x revenue. Can really take off from here.
Florian Buschek retweeted
$clmt pro-tip for anyone getting nervous with today’s downdraft…..don’t be! What you are witnessing is dipshit funds and pods selling winners to pay for their dumb and ill advised Neocrap plays. That my friends is amateur hour…..always keep the winners and cash out of the crap. What I and I suspect @Zerosumgame33 @toiletkingcap @GavMcCracken @BeenThereCap are doing is massively adding. I reposted this beautiful prose below because it’s exactly right from a macro perspective. Anyone with doubts go grab those nuts that you just put back in your jewelry box and go average up. These days don’t come often when you’re looking at a colossal pile of money coming right at you.
This is my most important $CLMT post since the one below a year ago.
As $CLMT's price hovers near its all-time high, +200% in a year, ask yourself: What is the current bear case, or even a possible but unlikely bear scenario?
There almost isn't one, on time frames longer than a few months.
If the Ukraine and Iran conflicts both magically resolved tomorrow, $CLMT would still do well. Crude product supply will take multiple quarters to loosen. $CLMT would still gush enough profits over the next year to delever. The biofuels half of the thesis has strengthened significantly over the last year, in multiple ways. Profits will be great even after the current industry supply shocks in crude products fully resolve, whenever that is.
The only theoretical bear scenario is a sharp reversal in government biofuels mandates and subsidies, which have been strong for at least 40 straight years, for structural reasons that will continue. *Highly* unlikely. Modest or temporary declines could happen, as they did in 2024-2025. Not sharp and permanent ones.
Below that scenario are a few other theoretical ones so improbable that I won't even mention them. If you dream them up yourself, just know that I probably have also.
Florian Buschek retweeted
$DAIO agreed to buy V-TEK (semiconductor handling and packaging) and A&J Programming for about $23M, expected to close this week. It intends to put a proposed $13.25M raise toward the price; $11.25M of it converts to common at $2.68. What do you want to see first?
Florian Buschek retweeted
1/ $SEER is a proteomics cash box with a live M&A fight.
~$112M market cap vs ~$195M net cash, no debt. Negative EV of about $80M.
The question isn’t the science. It’s whether shareholders ever see that cash. 🧵


































