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Joined December 2020
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.@chamath says the economy has decoupled from reality: asset owners win in every rate environment, wage earners don't.
“they were trying to signal and now they are shouting, is a broad-based belief that the economy has completely decoupled from reality and is broken. The economic reality in America is broken. There is a small percentage of people, the four of us on this pod and all of our friends, who are the asset owners of America. And we have benefited in every weather condition. When rates were zero, we…”
@theallinpod
Watch the full pod:
POD UP: The Besties React to the Midterm Massacre
-- Full Postmortem on the 2026 Midterms
-- Looking Ahead: How to Save Trump 2.0?
-- Market Reaction: $4T Wipeout, Data Center Fears, AI Ban Potential
-- Science Corner: Exponential Time Hypothesis Solved
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(3:37) Midterms postmortem: What led to a generational GOP collapse?
(32:26) How can Trump salvage his presidency?
(53:13) Market reaction: Data center fears, $4T in market cap wiped, AI ban potential
(1:24:21) Science Corner: OpenAI solves the Exponential Time Hypothesis
.@DavidSacks says ending the Iran war could take Brent crude from $110 to $70 and bring gas, diesel and food prices down.
“That's my number one, my number two, and my number three. Because what will happen, the price of Brent crude will drop precipitously. On the day of the election, the price of Brent crude dropped 10%. Is that because something changed in the Strait of Hormuz? No, it's because the market started to price in the mere possibility that the war would end sooner. And we got a 10% cut in the price of…”
@theallinpod
Watch the full pod:
POD UP: The Besties React to the Midterm Massacre
-- Full Postmortem on the 2026 Midterms
-- Looking Ahead: How to Save Trump 2.0?
-- Market Reaction: $4T Wipeout, Data Center Fears, AI Ban Potential
-- Science Corner: Exponential Time Hypothesis Solved
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(3:37) Midterms postmortem: What led to a generational GOP collapse?
(32:26) How can Trump salvage his presidency?
(53:13) Market reaction: Data center fears, $4T in market cap wiped, AI ban potential
(1:24:21) Science Corner: OpenAI solves the Exponential Time Hypothesis
.@chamath says a data center slowdown helps the hyperscalers and hurts the neoclouds, who only rent capacity.
“Probably not. Now, they're doing smart deals because that's what made sense. But I think what the incoming governors are going to say is these things are off the table, and instead, we want to have directly measurable economic impacts before we even entertain this. I think what it means is we're going to see a slowdown. And I think what that does is it benefits the hyperscalers because they have…”
@theallinpod
Watch the full pod:
POD UP: The Besties React to the Midterm Massacre
-- Full Postmortem on the 2026 Midterms
-- Looking Ahead: How to Save Trump 2.0?
-- Market Reaction: $4T Wipeout, Data Center Fears, AI Ban Potential
-- Science Corner: Exponential Time Hypothesis Solved
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(3:37) Midterms postmortem: What led to a generational GOP collapse?
(32:26) How can Trump salvage his presidency?
(53:13) Market reaction: Data center fears, $4T in market cap wiped, AI ban potential
(1:24:21) Science Corner: OpenAI solves the Exponential Time Hypothesis
.@DavidSacks says Sacks warns the data center pipeline could shrink sharply by 2028.
“I'll say something very quickly. When you're talking about infrastructure of this magnitude, these gigawatt-powered data centers, they cost around $50 billion, okay? Nobody can make that investment in conditions of uncertainty. The last thing you ever want to do is break ground on a project like that, and then when you're halfway through, you get enjoined. You end up with a strike by your workers…”
@theallinpod
Watch the full pod:
POD UP: The Besties React to the Midterm Massacre
-- Full Postmortem on the 2026 Midterms
-- Looking Ahead: How to Save Trump 2.0?
-- Market Reaction: $4T Wipeout, Data Center Fears, AI Ban Potential
-- Science Corner: Exponential Time Hypothesis Solved
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(3:37) Midterms postmortem: What led to a generational GOP collapse?
(32:26) How can Trump salvage his presidency?
(53:13) Market reaction: Data center fears, $4T in market cap wiped, AI ban potential
(1:24:21) Science Corner: OpenAI solves the Exponential Time Hypothesis
.@chamath says SpaceX's 90-day Anthropic compute exit could force a repricing at 2-3x.
“Then there is the crazy path. You should look for this one very narrow thing. You and I talked about this before on the pod, but SpaceX and Anthropic's compute deal has a mutual 90 day out. Anthropic can term in 90 days. SpaceX can term in 90 days, terminate. If SpaceX says I'm going to terminate this compute in 90 days, that is the king making move.
Why? It's a disproportionate amount of the…”
@theallinpod
Watch the full pod:
POD UP: The Besties React to the Midterm Massacre
-- Full Postmortem on the 2026 Midterms
-- Looking Ahead: How to Save Trump 2.0?
-- Market Reaction: $4T Wipeout, Data Center Fears, AI Ban Potential
-- Science Corner: Exponential Time Hypothesis Solved
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(3:37) Midterms postmortem: What led to a generational GOP collapse?
(32:26) How can Trump salvage his presidency?
(53:13) Market reaction: Data center fears, $4T in market cap wiped, AI ban potential
(1:24:21) Science Corner: OpenAI solves the Exponential Time Hypothesis
Sandisk ($SNDK) had fallen about 30 percent through Thursday's close this week, then bounced today as memory chip stocks rebounded.
• Nasdaq closed up 1.1 percent after its Thursday rout; Dow lagged
• Hims and Hers rose on a direct Eli Lilly obesity drug deal
• Rocket Lab climbed ahead of its Monday earnings report
Key takeaway: AI hardware is still trading on regulation headlines.
$SDGR gained 67% following the Aug 14, 2026 call by @ThePupOfWallSt at $18.00, extending those gains with a 4.5% advance today.
@ThePupOfWallSt is worth a follow.
Their full record: fintwit.ai/analyst?id=223461…
Tracking buy calls this week yields these analyst accuracy rates based on subsequent price movement:
@RonShamgar 83% (5/6 calls up)
@KrisPatel99 62% (8/13 calls up)
@AreteTrading 60% (3/5 calls up)
@cperruna 58% (7/12 calls up)
@Market 54% (7/13 calls up)
Every call scored: fintwit.ai/analyst
John Somorjai says Many AI startup valuations are unsustainable, and a reckoning is inevitable.
“I think there's a lot of irresponsibility going on. I think that the valuations are, of course, way too high, but also just the buyer universe is so small. When you think about investing, you want to think about what are my exit opportunities, and not every company is going to go public. In fact, very, very few companies go public, probably 1% or less.
And once you get above $10 billion, for…”
@a16z
Watch the full pod:
Salesforce's John Somorjai has spent more than 20 years doing deals for Marc Benioff, from Slack to six rounds of Anthropic, and runs a venture arm that has backed more than 750 companies.
His playbook is finding great technology that's starved for distribution and plugging it into 15,000 sales reps. Salesforce piloted Fin on its own help site, where it went live in 14 days and now handles over 40% of the traffic, resolving 65% without a human.
John joins a16z's Alex Immerman to discuss why Slack revenue is up almost 3x since the acquisition, how strong revenue can hide the churn that kills deals, the pen test that got into a CEO's laptop, and why robotics is where he's most excited to invest.
0:58 How Marc Benioff spots what to buy
3:48 The 3 tests for every acquisition
5:17 Salesforce's model as AI cuts seats
8:23 Fin resolves 65% with no human
10:32 The power of 15,000 sales reps
14:22 Founders who became product chiefs
17:34 Build vs buy when code is cheap
20:27 Why Salesforce bought Fin
22:58 Why Slack is perfect for AI agents
28:19 Salesforce Ventures' robotics bets
35:46 Why he's wary of new CRM startups
37:53 Why $10B+ startups have few buyers
39:32 Why he backed Anthropic six times
41:50 Red flags that kill acquisitions
44:27 The pen test that sank a deal
46:01 Growing up with a scientist father
YouTube: youtu.be/y4BdOtm40SA
@jsomorjai @salesforce @aleximm
$CRM — John Somorjai says Salesforce's Finn agent resolves 65% of help-site queries without humans.
“That's one of the critical pieces about where the technology industry has been moving is more towards outcome-based pricing, where you're paying for resolutions. And this is what Finn does so well, for example, versus just paying for a seat. And I think that's definitely a trend that we are getting really behind. And more and more of our products are going to be delivered that way.
And by the…”
@a16z
Watch the full pod:
Salesforce's John Somorjai has spent more than 20 years doing deals for Marc Benioff, from Slack to six rounds of Anthropic, and runs a venture arm that has backed more than 750 companies.
His playbook is finding great technology that's starved for distribution and plugging it into 15,000 sales reps. Salesforce piloted Fin on its own help site, where it went live in 14 days and now handles over 40% of the traffic, resolving 65% without a human.
John joins a16z's Alex Immerman to discuss why Slack revenue is up almost 3x since the acquisition, how strong revenue can hide the churn that kills deals, the pen test that got into a CEO's laptop, and why robotics is where he's most excited to invest.
0:58 How Marc Benioff spots what to buy
3:48 The 3 tests for every acquisition
5:17 Salesforce's model as AI cuts seats
8:23 Fin resolves 65% with no human
10:32 The power of 15,000 sales reps
14:22 Founders who became product chiefs
17:34 Build vs buy when code is cheap
20:27 Why Salesforce bought Fin
22:58 Why Slack is perfect for AI agents
28:19 Salesforce Ventures' robotics bets
35:46 Why he's wary of new CRM startups
37:53 Why $10B+ startups have few buyers
39:32 Why he backed Anthropic six times
41:50 Red flags that kill acquisitions
44:27 The pen test that sank a deal
46:01 Growing up with a scientist father
YouTube: youtu.be/y4BdOtm40SA
@jsomorjai @salesforce @aleximm
.@Jessicalessin says Anthropic's S-1 shows efficient growth; OpenAI's margins must change soon.
“Well, I think there's a difference. I mean, and look, obviously, Anthropic gets to do its IPO against the backdrop of all these questions.
Who knows? The S1 did reveal a pretty efficient, fast growing business.
Certainly they get hit by compute going up, though. So that's on people's minds. But I think they do well.
But OpenAI has a very different approach to margins as in they don't really…”
@MoreorLessPod
Watch the full pod:
@parkerconrad, founder of Zenefits and now CEO of Rippling, joins @lessin and @Jessicalessin. No Morins this week.
A year ago VCs were telling him software engineering was months away from mass unemployment. His update: salaries are higher, the market is tighter, and a great engineer is worth more today than ever.
He argues the only moat left in AI is seeing the problem before your customer does. That good gross margins can be a sign nobody's actually using your product. And that Rippling isn't a software company at all.
@lessin counters with his own setup: a private notes file he hands to four different agents, so they race each other to finish things he never asked them to do.
@Jessicalessin brings the mood from New York, where the money people don't think the $8 trillion CapEx bill pencils out, and financing is about to get much harder.
Plus Deel fighting a federal grand jury subpoena, Anthropic's IPO date, and Sam's plan to pay people minimum wage with a 5% shot at a million dollars.
New episode out now.
Topics:
01:14 Parker Conrad joins, no Morins this week
02:13 Everyone watched the election on prediction markets, not TV
04:09 The blue wave, and why the market went up anyway
07:48 Hyperscalers, data centers, and builds that just got harder
09:27 California's wealth tax fails
10:24 Why paper billionaires can't pay a wealth tax
12:17 The financing trick where one investor sets the headline price
13:06 New York's mood: AI financing is drying up
13:45 Sam: we've run out of money in the world
15:09 Parker: good gross margins can be a bad sign
15:30 Anthropic's IPO date and OpenAI's approach to margins
16:44 Rippling's IPO plans and the public market retirement community
18:26 The SaaS apocalypse that didn't happen
19:00 "Rippling is not a software company"
20:29 AI for boring: government forms, faxes and fraudulent audits
25:36 The only moat left is seeing the problem first
28:01 Sam's notes file and the agents that compete over it
29:32 Instinct keeps asking Jess the same question
30:02 Today's agents are shitty assistants
30:49 Permissions architecture as the real advantage
32:21 Where Rippling makes margin and where it makes zero
33:19 Usage pricing and deleting the bottom half of a job
34:36 What you're really selling is a promotion
36:04 Software written at installation time
37:26 Why you shouldn't vibe code permissions
38:07 AI is excellent at using software, humans are not
39:42 Should an AI negotiate your pay?
41:05 Rippling's $17M seed and two years before the starting line
42:07 Why reversibility decides how fast you can move
44:52 The Deel lawsuit and a federal grand jury subpoena
46:06 Sam: your job doesn't look fun to me
48:40 The engineer layoffs that never came
49:25 Random reward payroll, a very bad idea
51:26 Overrated and underrated in Silicon Valley
54:01 Sam's New York Marathon
55:14 Starting a company: the narrow ray of daylight