Fully Reporting

While North Carolina and Tennessee got a lot of focus for Republican gerrymanders backfiring or almost backfiring, Democrats in South Carolina also came remarkably close to winning multiple red seats. Joe Wilson of "you lie" fame only won by 1%, and upstate Rs had their closest races in decades. Precinct map below.

2026 Iowa Governor by Precinct. Democratic Auditor Rob Sand won by 11% in this midwestern state that the Trump era has turned solid red. His crossover appeal shows up in virtually every small town and city, particularly in eastern Iowa.

Here is a precinct map comparing Annie Andrews and the Democratic nominee for governor, Jermaine Johnson. As can be seen, Andrews did better almost everywhere, but especially in highly educated areas near cities.

Greenville and Spartanburg also bolted left, as you can see on the map below. For as much as Dem gains with working class/latino/young voters dominated the discourse, Dems also finally broke through in the smaller, highly educated metros that make up a lot of the GOP electorate in the south.

2026 South Carolina Governor by Precinct Despite most of the attention being on the Senate race, Democrats came remarkably close to flipping the governor's mansion in South Carolina as well. Alan Wilson only won by 4.5%. Map below.

2026 South Carolina Senate by Precinct. One of the most shocking results from Tuesday, and an early result that showed what kind of night it was going to be, was Annie Andrews upset win over Darline Graham. The map shows Andrews' unique strength upstate.

Election Twitter spent weeks pouring over early voting data, but did was it predictive? Not really. As the chart below shows, for states with party registration data, the shift in early vote composition (from 2024) had almost no correlation to the eventual shift in results.

Maine isn't an early vote heavy state (just under half the vote is cast early) but it's now cast 44,000 early ballots, more than most other states with key senate races. As can be seen below, the composition of these early votes has been much bluer than 2024.

A good example of how Colorado's primaries did not fall on the same fault lines, in Pitkin County, which contains Aspen, Michael Bennet did nearly 50% worse than Hickenlooper despite doing ~22% worse overall. Weiser had an appeal to high-income voters that Gonzales lacked.

Pending some final ballots, it looks like Democrats will win the House primaries in California by 30%, roughly 65-35. This is a larger margin than any statewide race, and represents an 10% shift from the 2024 results. Notably, this is actually better than Dems performance in 2018 primaries, when Republicans failed to contest 6 seats (versus 1 this time).

Putting aside that individual state primary composition usually does not have a ton of predictive value, this is actually extremely similar to the 2018 composition.

Welp, her performance in this last batch got even *more* lopsided. Ah well, nevertheless, just another thing this guy will never own up to being 100% wrong about.

Wow-nearly final results in TX SD-09 and Dems are up 14.4%. A 32% swing from 2024 and a nearly 20% swing from the jungle primary in November.

More Eday votes, now with 20-25% of precincts fully reporting, and the Dem lead has grown to >13%. This is shaping up to be an underperformance for Rs that defies explanation, given the jungle primary was R +5.

A new batch of votes in TX SD-09, and Dems actually improve their margin, albeit this is a small number of votes.