Elections, Policy, Law, and Maps. https://teapaw.org/t.co/jPBRSAICr4
Joined October 2025
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Fully Reporting retweeted
While North Carolina and Tennessee got a lot of focus for Republican gerrymanders backfiring or almost backfiring, Democrats in South Carolina also came remarkably close to winning multiple red seats. Joe Wilson of "you lie" fame only won by 1%, and upstate Rs had their closest races in decades.
Precinct map below.
Fully Reporting retweeted
This would be unimaginable just 2 years ago, when Democrats had their poorest performance in decades. @VP46Archive lost Louisiana by over 22 points, the worst margin since Reagan’s 1984 landslide, in part due to weak black turnout and erosion of black support.
Fully Reporting retweeted
Last week, the South saw surprisingly strong resurgence in support for the Democrats.
Despite virtually no support from the national party, @jamie4louisiana put up the strongest D performance in a federal statewide election in Louisiana since 2008, losing by less than 1.8%.
Fully Reporting retweeted
Here is a precinct map comparing Annie Andrews and the Democratic nominee for governor, Jermaine Johnson. As can be seen, Andrews did better almost everywhere, but especially in highly educated areas near cities.
Fully Reporting retweeted
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I've been doing a lot of Alaska margin modeling over the last few days. Thanks to @alaskanrobby for his expertise on where ballots are likely outstanding. Here's where I think things stand:
There's likely ~73k ballots still to be counted.
Fully Reporting retweeted
Carried by a very favorable national and local environment Nancy Lacore managed to flip South Carolina's 1st district by a margin of 1%. Lacore is the second Democrat to win the district since 1980 after Joe Cunningham won the district in 2018.
Fully Reporting retweeted
In 2024, Kaufman County, TX (just east of Dallas) was the most left-trending large county in Texas, as Harris improved several points on Biden. Though it was still very red in those cycles, Talarico appears to have carried it by about a percentage point.
Fully Reporting retweeted
2026 South Carolina Senate by Precinct.
One of the most shocking results from Tuesday, and an early result that showed what kind of night it was going to be, was Annie Andrews upset win over Darline Graham. The map shows Andrews' unique strength upstate.
Fully Reporting retweeted
In some heavily Hispanic areas, Republicans were just totally wiped off the map. In CA-22, a heavily Hispanic district with many migrant workers that Trump carried, incumbent Republican David Valadao is set to lose by more than 30 points, far worse than his past performances.
Fully Reporting retweeted
JUST CALLED: In a remarkable upset, Democrats have flipped UT HD-62 in Provo.
Democrat David Chappell had just a 2% chance of winning in our forecast, but he flipped one of the country's youngest state legislative districts anyway.
projects.statenavigate.com/2…
Fully Reporting retweeted
For the first time since 1992 a Democrat broke 40% of the vote in Alabama's 6th District. Congressman Gary Palmer ran especially poorly in the district's traditionally Republican suburbs.
Fully Reporting retweeted
Last Tuesday, progressive state senator Troy Jackson defeated longtime GOP Senator Susan Collins by 6%. He won by making huge inroads in the growing Portland metro and coastal areas compared to Gideon in 2020.
Collins did 0.7% better than Trump - a solid performance given the environment, but she couldn't overcome the blue tsunami.
Fully Reporting retweeted
2026 South Carolina Governor by Precinct
Despite most of the attention being on the Senate race, Democrats came remarkably close to flipping the governor's mansion in South Carolina as well. Alan Wilson only won by 4.5%. Map below.
Fully Reporting retweeted
Democrats resurged across the Driftless region this year, winning every congressional district including Minnesota 1. Jake Johnson won by posting strong performances in Rochester, Winona, and Mankato, with the counties encompassing each shifting left by double digits.
Fully Reporting retweeted
Was able to use the absentee files in NC to compare same day 18-29 turnout by party reg
% of 2022 / % of 2024 by party
D: 197.3% / 55.3%
R: 83.9% / 12.6%
Oth: 205.8% / 43.8%
Fully Reporting retweeted
How is it possible to only count 6 votes when over 50 percent of the estimated votes are outstanding….?
Fully Reporting retweeted
The historical electoral simulators are usable again!
poliwave.com/ca/fed/simulato…
There are simulators for every federal elections from 1867-2025 feel free to try them all
Fully Reporting retweeted
🇨🇦 Canadian Federal Polling Average Update (Jan 26th)
🔴LPC: 40.2% (+1.2%)
🔵CPC: 36.0% (+0.1%)
🟠NDP: 10.1% (-1.1%)
🔷BQ: 7.5% (-0.1%)
🟢GPC: 3.1% (-0.4%)
🟣PPC: 1.8% (+0.3%)
Check out the latest polling average: poliwave.com/ca/fed/polls?vi…
(+/- change from Jan 19th)
