Elections, Policy, Law, and Maps. https://teapaw.org/t.co/jPBRSAICr4
Joined October 2025
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Fully Reporting retweeted
While North Carolina and Tennessee got a lot of focus for Republican gerrymanders backfiring or almost backfiring, Democrats in South Carolina also came remarkably close to winning multiple red seats. Joe Wilson of "you lie" fame only won by 1%, and upstate Rs had their closest races in decades.
Precinct map below.
While North Carolina and Tennessee got a lot of focus for Republican gerrymanders backfiring or almost backfiring, Democrats in South Carolina also came remarkably close to winning multiple red seats. Joe Wilson of "you lie" fame only won by 1%, and upstate Rs had their closest races in decades.
Precinct map below.
New batch of ballots in Alaska puts Mary Peltola up to 49% of the vote. Appears to be a batch of roughly 27k. More likely coming.
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Fully Reporting retweeted
This would be unimaginable just 2 years ago, when Democrats had their poorest performance in decades. @VP46Archive lost Louisiana by over 22 points, the worst margin since Reagan’s 1984 landslide, in part due to weak black turnout and erosion of black support.
Fully Reporting retweeted
Last week, the South saw surprisingly strong resurgence in support for the Democrats.
Despite virtually no support from the national party, @jamie4louisiana put up the strongest D performance in a federal statewide election in Louisiana since 2008, losing by less than 1.8%.
With virtually all votes counted, it appears Democrat Sharice Davids has won by essentially the same margin in KS-03 as Republican Tracy Mann in KS-01. Republicans had drawn KS-03 to be a competitive seat, and Harris won it by 4%, whereas KS-01 is a Trump +31 Republican vote sink covering rural western Kansas
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The polls knew how many people would split their tickets. Even in states where there were large polling misses, the polls still generally got the gap between senate and gubernatorial candidates correct. Article below.
fullyreporting.substack.com/…
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Fully Reporting retweeted
Here is a precinct map comparing Annie Andrews and the Democratic nominee for governor, Jermaine Johnson. As can be seen, Andrews did better almost everywhere, but especially in highly educated areas near cities.
Fully Reporting retweeted
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I've been doing a lot of Alaska margin modeling over the last few days. Thanks to @alaskanrobby for his expertise on where ballots are likely outstanding. Here's where I think things stand:
There's likely ~73k ballots still to be counted.
Fully Reporting retweeted
Carried by a very favorable national and local environment Nancy Lacore managed to flip South Carolina's 1st district by a margin of 1%. Lacore is the second Democrat to win the district since 1980 after Joe Cunningham won the district in 2018.
Fully Reporting retweeted
In 2024, Kaufman County, TX (just east of Dallas) was the most left-trending large county in Texas, as Harris improved several points on Biden. Though it was still very red in those cycles, Talarico appears to have carried it by about a percentage point.
Fully Reporting retweeted
2026 South Carolina Senate by Precinct.
One of the most shocking results from Tuesday, and an early result that showed what kind of night it was going to be, was Annie Andrews upset win over Darline Graham. The map shows Andrews' unique strength upstate.
Fully Reporting retweeted
In some heavily Hispanic areas, Republicans were just totally wiped off the map. In CA-22, a heavily Hispanic district with many migrant workers that Trump carried, incumbent Republican David Valadao is set to lose by more than 30 points, far worse than his past performances.
