Feels like the story of Texas is gonna be what level of Hispanic reversion we see - because relative to 2024 there’s obviously going to be some. Is it 2020 levels? 2016? Something else? Bunch of different plausible outcomes probably hinge on this.
“heyyy queen I saw your tweet about how republicans are trash and I just wanted to let you know that I agree. although I myself am a republican, (i know, ugh) i am on your side. “one of the good ones” as some may say.”
#IowaSenate
Ashley Hinson calls on Vivek Ramaswamy to take down Acton ad in interview with ABC News.
She also called JD Vance's comments "ridiculous" when he defended the ad.
This is the Trump playbook. Always double down - even when it means supporting somebody like Amy Acton’s monster of a mother.
Republican Party is rotten from the top all the way down.
Trump: "Vivek Ramaswamy put up a very powerful Ad about a mother saying that her daughter, Amy Acton, who is running for Governor of Ohio, is a liar, and much worse. The Press, in a concerted and well coordinated attack, is trying to get Vivek Ramaswamy to 'take down the Ad.' Frankly, anybody whose mother spoke about a daughter in that way would normally lead to the daughter being precluded from serving in Office"
Conner Hafen retweeted
It takes a truly exceptional president to ask "what if I combined the public's distaste for my shenanigans from 2018 with the unpopular war from 2006 AND the 1970s energy crisis". And that president is Donald J. TRUMP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
This would be unsurprising and with both Wedgewood and these guys I never really believed they were reliable in any way. I didn’t think they were an actual fraud per se, just not particularly credible or worth paying attention to.
The website, substack and X account for @SocalStrategies went offline overnight socalstrategiespoll.com/
Admitted fraudster Wedgewood Polls told @ZacharyDonnini that they once worked for Socal xitter.cf/ZacharyDonnini/status/…
More in today's Pollwatcher (sign up) subscribe.washingtonpost.com…
True that much of the SL Valley is pretty flat. But it’s way different than Denver in that a good chunk of the metro creeps up into the foothills. When I was in school the elevation difference between the dorms and the stuff on the west side of campus was very noticeable on foot.
It’s interesting to compare 2026 with 2022 where Biden/Dems were somewhat buoyed by Dobbs, extreme candidate quality differential in key races, and gas recovering a bit closer to the election.
If anything it feels like things are trending the exact opposite direction for Rs.
Conner Hafen retweeted
He would prefer the race just be about the issues, but unfortunately as a former member of the Trump administration he is bound by contract and tradition to seek out a random pedophile and try to rehabilitate their image
Vivek Ramaswamy just told reporters, "It is an ad from our campaign, and the thing that I want to say is that I would love for this race and this election to be about the substantive issues that impact Ohioans, and unfortunately, Amy Acton has been hiding from those issues. She won't debate me."
He later said Acton's mother was not compensated.
(h/t WSYX ABC 6 on the ground)
Conner Hafen retweeted
People who have been around politics a long time may be struck as I was by the sheriff's signature on this arrest warrant for Amy Acton's stepfather, who at the time was a fugitive. Does the name James Traficant ring a bell?
This is so chickenshit lmao. Making an ad like that and then not even owning up to it.
.@VivekGRamaswamy campaign responds:
ALT Attributable to Connie Luck, spokesperson for the Vivek Ramaswamy campaign: “We don't know what happened between Amy and her mother, who first spoke out about Amy in 2020, but we know that Amy Acton is a serial fabulist who has some serious problems with the truth that the public needs to be aware of before deciding who to entrust as governor.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Donna Arthur lost custody of Amy Acton at age 12 after Acton's stepfather was charged with raping her. Arthur stayed married to him until his death. Acton and her brother have been estranged since. Multiple outlets cite 1978 court records of the charges.
actonforgovernor.com/dr-amy-actons-…
dispatch.com/story/news/pol…
Conner Hafen retweeted
Here's a dot map of the 1908 congressional election in MO-09. Champ Clark became House Minority Leader after winning reelection by only 3%, as his margins in Little Dixie were once again enough to overcome the Republican votes from the heavily German counties.
On one hand it’s repugnant that Vivek would involve Amy Acton’s mother in the campaign in this way.
On the other, it makes sense that he’d even *want* the endorsement of somebody who treated their children like this.
Amy Acton's brother slams Vivek Ramaswamy featuring her estranged mother in a campaign ad.
"After he was arrested and Amy and I were removed from their custody, our birth mother stayed married to Amy’s rapist until he died. This desperate, disgusting attack reveals exactly who Vivek Ramaswamy is at his core – a pathetic excuse for a man who is willing to hurt anyone as long as it gets him what he wants."
ALT Dr. Amy Acton’s Brother’s Statement on Ramaswamy Platforming Their Estranged and Abusive Mother COLUMBUS, OH– Today, Dr. Amy Acton’s brother, Philip Stearns, released the following statement condemning Vivek Ramaswamy’s attempt to platform their estranged and abusive mother: “It’s not surprising that Vivek Ramaswamy has stooped to such a despicable low as to attempt to turn the sexual abuse Amy endured at twelve years old from our birth mother's husband into a political talking point,” said Philip Stearns, Dr. Acton’s brother. “After he was arrested and Amy and I were removed from their custody, our birth mother stayed married to Amy’s rapist until he died. This desperate, disgusting attack reveals exactly who Vivek Ramaswamy is at his core – a pathetic excuse for a man who is willing to hurt anyone as long as it gets him what he wants.”
Conner Hafen retweeted
They should be. We are seeing pay-to-play corruption in government like nothing we've seen in American history. And it's radicalizing to even the most Romney-loving Republican like me to see how readily every last billionaire and corporation has decided to play.
CNN: GOP operatives conducting a focus group in a traditionally red Midwestern state this month were taken aback by what they heard from their own party’s voters.
Asked what they blamed for rising gas prices, those voters pointed to “corrupt politicians” and “billionaires” — a response that surprised some longtime strategists who’ve never seen government corruption emerge as a top issue for so many Republican voters in congressional races.
cnn.com/2026/10/18/politics/…
Can’t speak for others but I dropped my ballot off in person at one of the county drop boxes. I never send it back through the actual mail. Doesn’t surprise me that more people are going this route though.
Early vote data across the county, but especially in Nevada, increasingly suggest that concerns about USPS handling of mail ballots are changing how some Democrats vote, complicating comparisons with 2024.
Per @JohnRSamuelsen’s comparisons, Democrats appear to be shifting toward early in-person voting and dropping off their mail ballots, while Republicans are becoming more comfortable voting by mail. That would help explain why Clark County’s initial mail returns looked so much better for Republicans: the Democratic registration advantage fell from 18.6 points in the comparable 2024 snapshot to about 7.5 points in 2026.
But as Saturday’s likely drop-offs entered the totals, the picture changed sharply. Two later batches were D+31 and D+38.8. Democrats’ weaker initial mail numbers seem to partly reflect voters choosing to bypass USPS, rather than slacking in initial turnout.
This pattern has held somewhat across the country, as in-person early voting has been very blue while mail ballot returns have been more lackluster for Democrats than expected. There are certainly other possible explanations contributing to these dynamics, including the continued unwinding of COVID-era voting patterns, when absentee ballots were generally more Democratic. But the sharp Democratic shift in Nevada’s mail returns that appear to include substantial numbers of drop-offs rather than ballots sent through USPS, is strong evidence that more may be happening here.
Anyway, I do think there's solid data to support that concerns about postal delivery, amplified by media and political leaders, are encouraging Democrats to deliver their ballots themselves or vote in person. These concerns include both changes already in effect, such as transportation changes that can delay postmarks, and restrictions that were ultimately blocked. On Sept. 14, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration’s request to allow new USPS mail-in voting restrictions to take effect for the November 2026 midterms. Those restrictions remain blocked, but the concerns they generated may still be influencing how Democrats choose to vote.
This is so disgraceful.
Trump: My decision on Russia is a very simple one. I don't want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table.
Russia is doing very little, if anything, to help the Islamic Republic of Iran, compared to what they could be doing.
Zelenskyy is using Diesel Refineries in Russia as a target, knowing that these attacks are seriously hurting the world diesel markets, including those in the United States.
Farmers, ranchers, and businesses of all kinds are suffering greatly from this, but Russia is, nevertheless, sending, at a low price, millions of barrels of diesel to the World.
Zelenskyy doesn't care, and frankly, with all of the money that Europe is famously giving him, and that Crooked Joe Biden gave him in the past, he doesn't want to end this war, and probably never did.
He could have made a better deal two years ago than he can now. His country is in shambles, a large portion of his land is lost, his oceans and seas are gone, and his male population is low, wounded, and/or dead. I WANT THIS WAR END!
Conner Hafen retweeted
bone chilling stuff.... congress working. senate being less insanely biased against the median american.
