Super nice bald dad. Once rode in a safe car with Ralph Nader. 🐻 ⬇️. Nerd for polls and history. Your grandma voted for Debs.🌹
Handsome Fella Island, Iowa
Joined January 2011
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Look at that Trump coalition just melt away 🫠🫠🫠
That NP/IND EV turnout tho 👀🥹
Phil James retweeted
Attire for formal holiday dinner at Cheesecake Factory tonight: Black Van Heusen Outlet button-up shirt, Red Van Heusen Outlet tie, black jeans, white LA Gears, white dinner jacket, wraparound Oakleys, and 10 pumps of McGraw Southern Blend.
🚨 IOWA EARLY VOTING: PARTY-BY-PARTY SHIFTS (10/26, via Iowa SOS)
Comparing 2026 to 2022, exactly 8 days before Election Day:
🔵 Democrats: +23%
🔴 Republicans: +34%
⚪ No Party/Independent: +72% 👀
📈 Total early votes: +33%
The D-R split is almost identical in the EV compared to 2022. IND/NP early vote is up a whopping 59% from this point in 2022. And Rob is polling consistently ahead by 30%+ with independents. Impossible to spin this Lahn’s way you unless they have better internal IND numbers.
Phil James retweeted
Size of the 'blue wave' isn't just about how far Dems get in US House.
Hundreds of local offices could flip if Dems have a great night—AGs, county governments, utility commissions, school boards.
Lots to peruse on my guide to 670 items to watch! boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ba…
Phil James retweeted
The reason why DataRepublican isn't showing her data is because it shows a 15-21 point shift to the left from 2024
That would equal a D+16.5 generic ballot. Here's what that result would look like:
I've been asked about early voting analysis.
The dilemma I have is that my platform is big enough such that being too blunt can have an effect on morale. I'll push out new states and tools out to my website soon, but won't announce them here on 𝕏.
I will be giving @realJeremyCarl my predictions a week in advance so he can hold me accountable after Election Day.
You MUST turn out and bring their friends, and brace yourself on election night. Even TX is going to be a fight.
Phil James retweeted
>Trans people: “I’m worried about how some democrats are throwing us under the bus”
>Twitter centrists: “you insane f*gs are making things up, be grateful”
>Democratic candidates: “trans women are men and we should take away their healthcare”
>Twitter centrists: “so true bestie”
Hey @turek4iowa ... take note. THIS is how you take a stand on human rights.
#KansasSenate
Adam Hamilton on transgender rights:
“I don’t think we should take a small group of people and bully them, pick on them, and hurt them. I understand one thing really clearly when it comes to transgender people, and that is Jesus told me I was to love my neighbor as I love myself.”
“I’m gonna love the trans person as well as the straight person, male or female. We have to do better than picking on small groups. What’s happened is we’ve turned a group of people into a campaign issue because it polls well.”
Phil James retweeted
People noticed this earlier this week, but resort and big-city counties are among the biggest sources of campaign donations per resident.
I wrote about why ski and island towns stand out in my breakdown of VoteHub’s new national donor map.
NEW: Inside VoteHub’s 2026 Donor Map
@ryanjmccomb examines the small-dollar gap, the geography of Republican and Democratic giving, and how campaign money flows across state lines.
votehub.com/2026/10/24/insid…
Nixon’s moonshot path to 50.1%:
🌜Black turnout 69%,
🌜Hispanic turnout 55%,
🌜White turnout 60%,
🌜Nixon at 85%/58%/40% respectively
(8.1 mil turnout)
Obama endorses progressive insurgent Angie Nixon for Senate in Florida politi.co/4ifgkdw
If you’re an election nerd who follows Iowa races, follow @IAPrairiePop… Always the best breakdowns of early voting.
Mike heard from me this morning. Shameful. Disappointed that I ever supported him.
GOP Rep. Zach Nunn puts out an ad in #IA03 featuring self-ID'd Democrats (Iowa's local elections are non-partisan) who say they will vote for him over Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott:
"I'm supporting Rob Sand, and I strongly support Zach Nunn."
IA EARLY VOTE: 10/23-Source: @IowaSOS
207,858 ballots received (+24.4% vs. same pt in 2022).
🔵 Dem: 105,780 (50.9%)
🔴 GOP: 66,555 (32.0%)
⚪ No Party: 34,932 (16.8%)
NP up 59% vs. 2022
🚨🚨 Truth Nuke: In 2022, Dems had a 39,819 lead. In 2026 it's 39,225. 🚨🚨
