Super nice bald dad. Once rode in a safe car with Ralph Nader. 🐻 ⬇️. Nerd for polls and history. Your grandma voted for Debs.🌹
Handsome Fella Island, Iowa
Joined January 2011
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Phil James retweeted
It’s notable that Turek polling well behind Sand gets much less attention from the chattering class than AES polling behind Benson
New: Iowa Democrat Josh Turek is running a radical Senate campaign ... to the center
- Opposes impeachment
- Supports Laken Riley Act
- Criticizes Dems for blocking Husted data center bill and farm bill
- Ticks off all the ways he can work with Trump
“Politically, the term moderate can be pejorative. And I say that I’m proudly a moderate," he says in an interview.
His opponent, Rep. Ashley Hinson, says Turek is "going to be voting with Chuck Schumer 100% of the time." But she too is running toward the center, distancing herself from Trump on Iran, Russia and Vivek ad
Turek: Hinson’s “masquerading. I mean that’s a problem for me. I’m genuinely a bipartisan person,” he added. “She has been partisan. … Just be who you are.”
On the throwback race in Iowa, where “They expect us to represent Iowa interests and not just the interests of whoever’s president of the United States," according to Chuck Grassley -->
semafor.com/article/10/25/20…
Phil James retweeted
Attire for formal holiday dinner at Cheesecake Factory tonight: Black Van Heusen Outlet button-up shirt, Red Van Heusen Outlet tie, black jeans, white LA Gears, white dinner jacket, wraparound Oakleys, and 10 pumps of McGraw Southern Blend.
Phil James retweeted
Size of the 'blue wave' isn't just about how far Dems get in US House.
Hundreds of local offices could flip if Dems have a great night—AGs, county governments, utility commissions, school boards.
Lots to peruse on my guide to 670 items to watch! boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ba…
Phil James retweeted
The reason why DataRepublican isn't showing her data is because it shows a 15-21 point shift to the left from 2024
That would equal a D+16.5 generic ballot. Here's what that result would look like:
I've been asked about early voting analysis.
The dilemma I have is that my platform is big enough such that being too blunt can have an effect on morale. I'll push out new states and tools out to my website soon, but won't announce them here on 𝕏.
I will be giving @realJeremyCarl my predictions a week in advance so he can hold me accountable after Election Day.
You MUST turn out and bring their friends, and brace yourself on election night. Even TX is going to be a fight.
Phil James retweeted
>Trans people: “I’m worried about how some democrats are throwing us under the bus”
>Twitter centrists: “you insane f*gs are making things up, be grateful”
>Democratic candidates: “trans women are men and we should take away their healthcare”
>Twitter centrists: “so true bestie”
Phil James retweeted
People noticed this earlier this week, but resort and big-city counties are among the biggest sources of campaign donations per resident.
I wrote about why ski and island towns stand out in my breakdown of VoteHub’s new national donor map.
NEW: Inside VoteHub’s 2026 Donor Map
@ryanjmccomb examines the small-dollar gap, the geography of Republican and Democratic giving, and how campaign money flows across state lines.
votehub.com/2026/10/24/insid…
Phil James retweeted
If you want to know why Josh is going to win Iowa, this is the only stat that matters... The last time the president was in town was a week before the war. Average diesel price in Iowa on January 27, 2026 was $3.32 per gallon. Today it's $6.17.
#IowaSenate
Semafor: Josh Turek welcomes President Trump to Iowa
“It’s good. … He needs to see what the policies, like the tariffs and the war in Iran, cuts to healthcare, have done to a state like Iowa.”
semafor.com/article/10/22/20…
Phil James retweeted
If you're the kind of person who mostly gets political news on social media, and the people you follow are not telling you that early vote in North Carolina is bordering on apocalyptic for Republicans, then you're not getting good information.
carolinaforward.org/news/the…
Phil James retweeted
🚨 IOWA EARLY VOTING: PARTY-BY-PARTY SHIFTS (10/21, via Iowa SOS)
Comparing 2026 to 2022, exactly 13 days before Election Day:
🔵 Democrats: +22%
🔴 Republicans: +18%
⚪ No Party/Independent: +64% (👀)
That NP shift is just stupid.
Phil James retweeted
WOW -- Vance *defends* Ramaswamy's reprehensible ad 👇
Q: Ramaswamy's campaign put out a controversial ad featuring his opponent's mother. Some Republicans are backing away from that. Do you think that ad was appropriate?
JD VANCE: Well, I'll be honest with you. Whether the ad was appropriate or not is not really my concern. My concern is who is gonna govern. I have to admit I'm a little bit disgusted when I see Republicans who are whining more about that ad than they are about what the Democrats want to do.
Phil James retweeted
We finally have results from 217 counties across Texas.
After the first day in early voting, Democratic primary voters hold a D+8.4 point lead over Republicans compared to R+10.9 4 years ago.
Similar to the county numbers, this is a 19.3 swing in primary voters.
Phil James retweeted
Look at the Generic Senate Ballot.
F'ing South is tied. Midwest is D+10.
NYT/Siena poll | 10/12-10/19 LV
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 52% (+1)
🟥Republican 41% (-2)
——
President Trump approval
❌Disapprove 59% (no change)
✅Approve 36% (-2)
(Change from | 9/8-9/13 LV)
nytimes.com/2026/10/21/upsho…
Phil James retweeted
This is why the Israeli government started spending money on mailers in Iowa last week
NEW POLLS: A majority of likely voters in six states expected to decide control of the US Senate - Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas - support Senate measures to block the transfer of bombs to Israel.
Our new polling, conducted by @YouGov, was first announced on today's episode of Pod Save The World with @TVietor08 and @brhodes and sampled over 3,200 voters from September 25 to October 14.
State-by-state results below 🔽
Phil James retweeted
We were investigating Wedgewood for faking their data and emailed them for comment this morning, ahead of publishing the findings tomorrow. They are trying to cover up their fraud with the "we were doing a social experiment" excuse.
Full story here: blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/fif…
This Post is from an account that no longer exists. Learn more
Phil James retweeted
Isn't it just a little ridiculous to preference the explanation that the sophomore college kids faking data to make a quick buck on kalshi 'identified the existence of a hunger for' data that proves 'rigidly left wing candidates perform as well or better than heterodox ones, despite to a huge body of evidence that says otherwise'
instead of the simple explanation they were just faking data to make a quick buck on kalshi?
These are not the types of people to go to searchlight and CAP retreats and applaud the heroism of ideological moderation. We are talking about college kids and well-known right wing polling fraudsters. This is silly town
Phil James retweeted
So I found Wedgewood’s Kalshi account. He goes by Andrew and has been insider trading using the fake polls that he was posting. @Kalshi @KalshiSupport do something about this
Phil James retweeted
Changing voting patterns!
Florida mail 🔴 1.3% more GOP than 2024 final numbers
Nevada mail 🔴 1.8% more GOP than 2024 final numbers
Florida IPEV 🔵 19% more DEM than 2024 final numbers
Nevada IPEV 🔵 23% more DEM than 2024 same day
North Carolina 🔵 26% more DEM than 2024 same day
