JClyde

Action Wrapped is here 🎁 One of my best years yet I think: — Baseball HRs carried me — Glad I could rely on my Pirates for something — Action team we need top players/props next year! Let me see yalls ⬇️

I have to get involved, don't care if it's the squarest prop on the board. Taking Jahiem White o138.5 rush yds. Yes that is a real line. He's 7th in FBS in rush yards, and T-7 in missed tackles forced. This FAU defense grades out as a bottom-10 rush D, and 4th worst in tackling per PFF. They have surrendered 978 rushing yds over the last two weeks, again, real stat. This team now has to go and play at N Texas on a short week, and the Mean Green are planning to pack this place out. I can't see how FAU stops them from moving the ball. Square, yes, hitting, also yes.

That shit says SEVENTY-SEVEN & A HALF???

Dexter Lawrence god DAMN

Early look for Panthers/Packers: — Tet McMillan o71.5 rec yds (-115) Few books hanging a lower line here. Tet has been solid vs Two-High this year, logging 2.71 YPRR. GB runs it at the 3rd highest rate this year, and the most over the L3 weeks. ARSB, Ceedee, and London are some other stud WRs that have >2.00 YPRR vs Two-High that have logged good box scores vs the Packers. Like Tet and Bryce Young to bounce back here after a tough outing vs TB.

📊 RBs Yards Before & After Contact per Attempt — Tyler Allgeier generating ~80% of his production after contact — Kyle Monangai among the elite RBs — James Cook highly efficient thanks to his o-line, more big games ahead? — David Montgomery just cannot put it together

Guys rostered in 90% of leagues that have yet to score a TD: — AJ Brown — Rome Odunze That’s it. Both in primetime this week. Finally their time?

Two MNF Props I like, odds on @ProphetX 🏈 Jake Ferguson o17.5 rec yds (-115)   Not going to sugarcoat it, he's been bad this year. But I want to build an argument for him to bounceback here. He was benched last week for Brevyn Spann-Ford, banking on that lighting on fire under him.   Biggest thing he has going for him is that the Eagles allow the highest slot target % in the league at 36.1%. Ferguson this year is clocking the 2nd most routes from the slot for the team this year just behind Flournoy, and 52.7% of his total routes.   The Eagles don't skew super heavily towards Man or Zone, but favor cover 3 and 6 looks this year. One way Dak & Ferguson can take advantage of this is through seam & go routes. If you look at Ferguson's stats this year on these, he's run 26 go routes this year and has actually graded out in the 84th percentile in separation score on these. He's also generated his highest YPRR specifically on go-routes (1.52), good for 75th percentile.   Tie all that in with it being the final game of National TE Day/Weekend, I'm willing to take a stab at maybe one of the lowest lines we see all year with him. 🏈 Makai Lemon o38.5 rec yds (-115) As a Steelers fan I was admittedly upset when the Eagles stole him in the draft, but he hasn't really shown up yet. With injuries sidelining Smith & Wicks, he could be in for a massive usage boost here. Let's break it down.   The main stat I wanna key in on here is Makai Lemon's route tree, and specifically hitch routes. He's run the 3rd most hitches in the entire NFL thus far (53). He's behind Olave and Bourne if you're curious. So, I looked at every game the Cowboys have played thus far and how opposing players did on hitch routes vs them:   M Golden: 2.08 YPRR /12 rtes C Watson: 3.86 YPRR / 7 rtes   Egbuka: 3.5 YPRR / 6 rtes Godwin: 2.33 YPRR / 6 rtes   J Noel: 1.57 YPRR / 7 rtes   M Andrews: 2.38 YPRR / 8 rtes R Bateman: 2.00 YPRR / 3 rtes   T McLaurin: 5.00 YPRR / 10 rtes   M Nabers: 2.67 YPRR / 9 rtes I Likely: 2.50 YPRR / 8 rtes   That's good for an average of about ~2.8 YPRR on hitches which is pretty decent. Now Lemon hasn't shown a ton of flash this year, but I think it's fair to say he's the only rookie WR drafted with this type of capital that's been healthy that has yet to show up.   An extra day to prepare with Tanner McKee and at home, the rookie finally gets his chance. If you read all this you’re a legend. GL! 🍀

Who on this planet wants to bet on Jake Ferguson right now? It might have to be done.

Seahawks & AJ Barner saved me last night Less than a week til CBB 🤩

Pushed money around in CFB yesterday, going for broke today in NFL: 🏈 Bijan Robinson o121.5 rush+rec yds 🏈 Harold Fannin o28.5 rec yds 🏈 Jamarr Chase o80.5 rec yds 🏈 Kenyon Sadiq o18.5 rec yds 🏈 Justin Jefferson o72.5 rec yds 🏈 Michael Wilson o48.5 rec yds 🏈 Tucker Kraft o49.5 rec yds Basically betting every game, what could go wrong?

This might be my favorite NFL slate of the year for props, we all know how this ends

CFB Plays I'm on and a few (literally) words why: Censere Lee o17.5 rec yds (-115) -- Gamescript, overrated MIA secondary TJ Moore o50.5 rec yds (-115) -- Dink & dunk game, massively due S Carolina -2.5 (-115) -- Spot of all spots Minnesota +8 (-110) -- PJ Fleck at home, revenge spot N Illinois +4.5 (-115) -- Hawaii 4000 mile road trip E Michigan +10 (-115) -- Chris Creighton dog spot GL Today! 🍀

✅ Thank you Victor

It's Snowing on Friday Night ❄️🌙 🏈 Victor Snow o27.5 rec yds (-115) I'm all in on Victor Snow here. Insanely quiet start to the season with the Wolfpack, now gets his chance with Jojo Trader sidelined and facing an abysmal Stanford coverage unit. They brought him in to play the slot off a really good year with Buffalo, here's what Stanford has allowed to slot WRs last 3 weeks: - J. Greathouse (ND): 3-30 (blowout) - K. Shanks / C. Hernandez (WF): 2-51 / 7-57 - J. Allen: 4-64 NCST off a bye, tough spot traveling to the west coast. They're much better than this Stanford team but with a high total this feels like a shootout. Best chance for Snow to be involved, I'm all in.

In honor of National TE Day this weekend,  here's the teams allowing the highest target % to TEs this year, and the opposing team's TE(s) this week: 🔹 Lions (Tucker Kraft) 🔹 Chiefs (AJ Barner) 🔹 Bengals (Mark Andrews/Matt Hibner) 🔹 Dolphins (Mason Taylor/Kenyon Sadiq) 🔹 Saints (Darnell Washington/Pat Freiermuth) 📊 Chart below shows TEs this year and how they're separating vs their target volume. Notable things on here: — Kraft & Sadiq could see big target games — Fannin due for a monster game — Vintage Mark Andrews game if Hibner sits? — Kittle & Bowers are inevitable

Two Props I like for TNF 🌙 🏈 Caleb Williams o19.5 rush yds (-115) Pats run man at 2nd highest rate, blitz at the 7th highest rate. Think Caleb and the Bears will need the run game to keep this game in their favor, and I like Caleb to improvise a bit here. Taking a chance as NE has allowed the 3rd fewest scramble yards this year but they’ve really only played Josh Allen & Trevor Lawrence in terms of guys that use their legs, and T-Law posted 25 yds. 🏈 AJ Brown o69.5 rec yds (-115) Gonna be real popular today but for good reason. Brown destroys man coverage, posting 2.70 YPRR back thru last year. Bears run it at the 4th highest rate and haven’t been great against the pass, allowing the 2nd highest YPA and 8th most YPG to outside receivers. NE down a few guys, don’t see how AJB doesn’t eat here.

And then there were five. Guys rostered in 90% of leagues that have yet to score a TD: Saquon Barkley Drake London AJ Brown Rome Odunze Josh Downs Odunze & London feel like they gotta hit this week.

1-1 here, Jenkins hit in the 1Q, FIU I thought would have a better showing defensively

Have really clawed back from that awful weekend I had a few weeks back — always trust the process. CFB for me tonight: 🔸 FIU -10 🔸 Brendan Jenkins o40.5 rec yds Keep on keepin’ on 🤘🏼