James Tobyne (任翔) (@JamesTobyne) header
James Tobyne (任翔) (@JamesTobyne) profile picture

Tweets on global affairs, tech, the economy, & international trade. Ex-Alibaba. Ex-Flickr. Hoya saxa. Tweets are my own.

Silicon Valley, and the globe
Joined February 2012
Photo by James Tobyne (任翔) (@JamesTobyne)Photo by James Tobyne (任翔) (@JamesTobyne)Photo by James Tobyne (任翔) (@JamesTobyne)Photo by James Tobyne (任翔) (@JamesTobyne)Photo by James Tobyne (任翔) (@JamesTobyne)Photo by James Tobyne (任翔) (@JamesTobyne)Photo by James Tobyne (任翔) (@JamesTobyne)Photo by James Tobyne (任翔) (@JamesTobyne)Photo by James Tobyne (任翔) (@JamesTobyne)
James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
1. US business sector productivity growth was 2.1% over the year ending 2026 Q3. That's solid. 2. If you think of trend productivity growth as ~1-1.5%, we running +0.5-1pp higher at the moment. Again, that's good news. 3. For perspective, at the height of the dot com boom (1999-2000), productivity growth was running about +2pp higher annually. This premium had completely faded by ~2005. So we're at 1/4 - 1/2 of peak dot com boom effect. 4. I would put next to no weight on quarter-to-quarter productivity growth. It's very noisy. 5. Productivity growth was stronger in 2023, when AI capabilities were far lower but AI capex was accelerating precipitously. That should tell us something. 6. There are probably other factors besides AI affecting short-run measured US productivity as well, including knock-ons from US policy choices made during the pandemic, the high-churn labor market of 2022, and large shifts in immigration flows. 7. Measures of TFP growth from Fernald and BLS are weak, suggesting to the extent AI is a factor, it's not primarily through task- or worker-level productivity effects (but TFP has to be estimated so take it with many grains of salt). More from @Stripe Economics here: stripeeconomics.com/p/ai-and…
Evidence is growing that we’re turning the corner on productivity. US productivity grew at a 3.6% annual rate this past quarter. That’s more than double the 1.5% average from 2007-2019. The new numbers put me further ahead for my bet with Bob Gordon about productivity growth in the 2020s. 💪 Here’s how far the US is now ahead of the CBO estimate at the start of the decade (before they knew about the pandemic or LLMs) courtesy of @jasonfurman’s Econvitals.
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
BREAKING: A mystery seller is trying to dump about $500 million in data center loans all at once, per Bloomberg, days after the midterms raised doubts about many projects. The anonymous seller is auctioning a dozen loans, including a $25 million piece of financing for a huge Stargate site in New Mexico, the joint project of OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle. Oracle has already sent that site’s developer a force majeure notice, a legal claim that events beyond its control may excuse it from its obligations.
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
BREAKING: Marco Rubio is reportedly one of up to five Cabinet members preparing to leave the Trump administration after the midterms, per The Independent, citing anonymous sources. The other four aren’t named.
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
My wife has taught high school in Tokyo for twenty years. Every year, a few of her students spend a year living with a family in America. When they come home, she asks each of them one question. "What do you miss?" She expects hamburgers. She almost never gets hamburgers. And these aren't old stories. Most of these kids came home in the last two years. "Every time I left the house, my host mom said, 'Text me when you get there.' In Japan, nobody needs to know where I am. In Ohio, somebody always did." (Mina, 17, Ohio) "If you walk toward a door, an American will hold it open. Even if you are very far away. So you have to run. I ran to so many doors." (Itsuki, 16, Georgia) "My host brother screamed on the floor of a grocery store. A stranger walked by and said to my host mom, 'You're doing great, Mama.' She almost cried. I didn't know strangers were allowed to say that." (Aoi, 17, Texas) "We went away for the weekend and left our trash can at the curb. When we got back, it was by the garage. Nobody said who. My host dad said if it had been there one more day, the neighbor would have knocked." (Haruto, 16, Minnesota) "A car got stuck in the snow in front of our house. Four men came out of four houses. Nobody called them. They pushed, the car drove away, and they went back inside without saying their names." (Ren, 17, Michigan) "Every American has jumper cables. Maybe half of them know which clip goes where. The other half help anyway." (Shin, 16, Montana) "In July, my host family put a cooler on the porch. Cold water, snacks, and a sign: 'For our delivery drivers. Thank you!' I asked if they knew the drivers. They said no." (Nanami, 16, Arizona) "Downtown, there are banners on the lampposts. Photos of soldiers from the town. Some old, some very young. My host grandpa walked me down the street and told me every name." (Yuna, 16, Iowa) "I got a C-plus on my first test. My host dad said, 'I'm proud of you,' and put it on the fridge. In Japan, nobody is proud of a C-plus." (Takeru, 17, Pennsylvania) Then the quietest girl in the class raised her hand. Sora. Seventeen. Missouri. "Nobody asks me 'home safe?' anymore," she said. She was wrong. In September, there was a typhoon warning for Tokyo. At 2 a.m., Sora's phone lit up. It was her host mom. In Missouri. Watching the weather in a country she had never been to. "Saw the storm. You home safe?" Sora told my wife she cried for a long time. Then she typed the answer she had typed a hundred times, from football games and friends' driveways. "Home safe." Her host mom wrote back one line. "Good. That's all I needed." My wife has asked that question for twenty years. Not one kid has ever said they missed how big America is. They miss how America says goodbye. And how it checks that you got home. So, America. You think you've lost something. You haven't. It's on a porch in Arizona. It's pushing a car in Michigan. It's awake at 2 a.m. in Missouri, watching our weather. You don't remember doing any of it. A kid in Tokyo will never forget.
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
In other news, Reuters publishes an article about how much better life has become in Tibet under the Chinese Communist Party.
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
Trump on JD Vance: "Maybe he won't run"
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
Trump has told aides Stephen Miller has gone too far in immigration after his wife Melania complained about people she knew were getting deported, per WSJ
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
BREAKING: White House aides are bracing for a shake-up after the midterms, with chief of staff Susie Wiles and Secretary of State Marco Rubio among those who could be at risk, per the Daily Mail.
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
BREAKING: Democrats are preparing “aggressive” investigations into Trump’s crypto ventures, his deals with law firms and his pardons of donors, per FT
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
BREAKING: Donald Trump and his top White House aides are reportedly preparing to directly blame Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for the Republican midterm defeat, along with military commanders who pushed for war with Iran, per CNN and CBS News. “Trump, always one to crowdsource an opinion, has asked allies about their thoughts on Hegseth’s performance of late,” sources told CNN. CBS News also reports that Trump believes the election results would have been entirely different without the Iran war. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and CENTCOM commander Gen. Brad Cooper are also reportedly facing scrutiny as Trump looks for someone to blame for the Republican midterm defeat.
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
gm America
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
It appears that the markets are quite fond of the blue wave.
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
BREAKING: Israel's election commission says it has found no fraud in polls conducted on Oct. 27, dealing a blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has repeatedly made unsubstantiated claims that Arab-led parties "stole" the vote. apnews.com/article/israel-el…
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
if you’re in line to give Jd Vance a swirlie in the gender neutral bathroom stay in line
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
It just became easier for Xi to decide if he wants a trilateral on the sidelines of APEC.
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
Hearing mixed reactions out of Ukraine tonight, ranging from cautious optimism to picking out F-35 paint schemes.
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James Tobyne (任翔) retweeted
Kansas has a Democratic senator. The last time this happened, the Wizard of Oz hadn't even come out yet
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If the stock market goes down tomorrow it’s just the folks who need lawyers now. Lawyers are going to have a banner month/year.
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