Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis @Defpriorities. Formerly @CarnegieEndow @RANDCorporation. Tweets on U.S. defense policy & military strategy.
Washington, DC
Joined July 2012
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The transition to a more self-reliant Asian security order that requires less of the U.S. is underway.
For @nytopinion I argue that this is unavoidable.
An over-extended U.S. that has squandered its military power cannot underwrite Asia's security anymore. It will have to pull back & the region itself will have to fill the gaps.
It's good news that Asia is already adjusting to this reality.
Jennifer Kavanagh retweeted
1) Taurus is in no way optimized for prosecuting time-sensitive, mobile targets, including Russian ballistic missile launchers.
2) Using them for mobile launcher hunting would actually be an extreme waste of the missile.
3) Germany will not deliver Taurus to Ukraine. That ship has long sailed.
Jennifer Kavanagh retweeted
Some China hawks are hoping they can reassert themselves against a newly weakened Trump. You might wonder how they figure that the election results imply that US voters want re-escalation with China but that isn’t actually a relevant question
Jennifer Kavanagh retweeted
Although we still don't know whether Xi, Trump, and Putin will hold a trilateral summit, in the latest episode of #Sinopinion, Shao Yuqun, Zhao Long, and I discussed China-U.S.-Russia relations. The single most important take: Shenzhen is not Yalta.
podcasts.apple.com/cn/podcas…
Jennifer Kavanagh retweeted
"Several Democrats on the Senate Armed Services Committee aren’t ruling out supporting more Pentagon funding [for the Iran War]. That includes...Elissa Slotkin of Michigan."
Trump's military budget is already $1.1 trillion.
ALT ‘We’re in it’: Democrats won’t rule out giving Trump more money for Democrats will have to balance a desire to criticize Trump’s offensive in Iran with pressure to support funding to defend the nation now at war. Photo is of Sen. Elissa Slotkin.
I know a lot of folks are talking about the election results, but this tweet, from a sitting @VP, is stunning. The decision to go to war is the most solemn responsibility that a President and Vice President have as leaders.
So for you to reduce it to a simple political calculation while we still have 50,000 troops in the Middle East, is one of the most crass, cynical things I've seen. You and President Trump got us into this war, without a clear objective and without regard for the will of the American people. It's cost us American lives and billions of dollars of American treasure, with no end in sight.
Last night, the American people delivered a crystal-clear message about the mismanagement of this war, and what it has done to our pocketbooks. Whether you supported the war or simply failed to stop it, your job is not to try and cover yourself, but to get us out of it.
Yes. Still there. Still shaming and threatening those who “step out of line.”
Weakened, especially on the right no doubt, but still around and enforcing the boundaries of acceptable foreign policy opinion. Those who disagree should try telling a CFR or German Marhsall Fund gathering that we can leave defending Europe to Europeans or write a paper saying we should pull back to the second island chain in Asia. Ask @jekavanagh
Great! I agree. So we can stop talking about NATO membership and Article 5 like guarantees and coalition of the willing. Right?
Ukrainians have little faith in written guarantees.
Their most realistic security guarantee is a strong Ukrainian military backed by a powerful domestic defense industry, writes Leonid Baratz.
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/uk…
Jennifer Kavanagh retweeted
Problem w tym, że wybory wygrywa się na przekazie antywojennym, ale zwycięzcy i tak realizują program wojenny. Wszak Trump też doszedł do władzy na przekazie antywojennym.
Jennifer Kavanagh retweeted
Here is a quadrant chart using CNN’s exit poll. It shows what issues hurt Republicans, by how many voters called each issue crucial and how they voted. Cost of living (49%, D+34), corruption (55%, D+28), & Iran (34%, D+46) made people vote D. Only immigration (36%, R+15) helped Rs.
Jennifer Kavanagh retweeted
Lots of subjectivity and vibes in “was it tariffs or was it Iran war” debate. But objectively, data shows a much bigger impact from Iran war on prices increases 2026 and it’s not that close. It was about cost of living, and Iran was the main driver of that.
Jennifer Kavanagh retweeted
Americans are leaving an Europe they see more and more as a periphery of the world. The Democrats politely but inexorably and Trump brutally. They both close the door behind them but he slams it on our fingers.
No, I'm not suggesting limits on anyone's sovereignty.
Countries have a right to decide which alliances they would like to join & alliance members have a right to decide which countries they can/should accept & how they should allocate resources to best prevent war & protect national interests.
In any case, even NATO membership does not entitle any country to deployment of foreign forces or NATO assets.
The original discussion was about NATO infrastructure in the Baltic states and Poland, etc. & Russia's response to that infrastructure in the those same areas.
No one suggested that NATO deployments in Warsaw pact countries was responsible for Russia's annexation of Crimea.
Jennifer Kavanagh retweeted
Democrats should come away from tonight with 2 thoughts. 1, how did we fuck 2024 up so badly that the country needed two more years of retard Trump to be reminded of how stupid and incompetent maga is and 2, there is no left wing mandate, people just hate Trump and want normal
Jennifer Kavanagh retweeted
74% of voters in exit polls saying the Iran war was at least a major factor in their vote. Definitely on voters minds.
Foreign policy still scored way below the economy in terms of salience, but people probably view the Iran war as also an economic issue
Jennifer Kavanagh retweeted
It would be a grave error for Europeans to assume the Democratic resurgence in US augurs a restoration of the old transatlantic relationship.
Perfect moment to read this @ecfr deep-dive on future of the party by @celiabelin, @nevadajoan & @cw_herrmann ⬇️
ecfr.eu/publication/life-of-…
Realistically, the Iran war mattered because it affected the economy. If the war had been short or had not affected Americans financially, they wouldn’t have punished Trump for it even if they didn’t like it.
