Senior economist @Appcast/Stepstone. PhD @LundUniversity. Stint @ECB. Macro/econ history wonk, blogger, wannabe stoic, chess hobbyist, Scifi nerd. Views my own.
London, England
Joined November 2016
- Tweets18.1K
- Following805
- Followers1.5K
- Likes148K
Pinned Tweet
The business cycle is (mostly) driven by fluctuations in NGDP. Nominal income is nothing more than velocity adjusted money (M*V). It’s the Central Bank’s job to react to changes in M and V and therefore keep NGDP growing on a stable path. This is the most neutral monetary policy
Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
AWFUL. A family pleaded with ICE to deport their ill father so he could get out of detention. They even offered to pay for plane tickets. But ICE kept him jailed for two months after he accepted removal, his health deteriorating daily. He died hours after he was finally deported.
Ayaz Ahmed, 61, had no criminal record and had several diagnosed chronic health conditions when his children say he was detained, deported, and died mysteriously over the summer. abc7chicago.com/post/donald-…
Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
1950: 60% of the world lived in extreme poverty.
2025: 10%.
One of the biggest development gains of the past 75 years.
But progress has stalled—and the path to 2050 is far less certain.
Five facts from the data: blogs.worldbank.org/en/opend…
Based on what? Inflation is accelerating, nominal demand is strong, equity prices supporting consumption, employment growth above breakeven, unemployment falling below natural rate. Little reason to not hike. The Fed is not in the business of interest rate smoothing.
To be clear, I still think it is still a mistake to hike, and definitely a mistake to hike 50 bps in December.
What that mistake means is that the Fed will have to cut sharply in 2H 2027,
136
If the Fed had specified a clear and precise reaction function, we wouldn’t have this problem. But Warsh also doesn’t want that and is horrible confused about the two. Therein lies the problem. This was bound to happen unless they forbid members to give speeches
By refusing to give guidance, Warsh is now effectively allowing Waller to run the Fed, as Waller continues to give guidance (Waller is btw far from consensus)
Was that really the purpose of that exercise? Warsh needs to take back control
105
Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Sacking Ed Miliband must be worth at least 0.2% GDP growth by this point.
Cabinet locked in bitter row as Ed Miliband and key ally try to block £49billion plans for third runway at Heathrow trib.al/XsBR5aS
Wow 😂😂😂
Extraordinary scenes here at the J Davidson Stadium.
Visibility down to a few yards.
No-one has any idea what is going on.
Supporters holding mobile torches aloft, like it’s an Elton John concert.
It is still 2-2, we think.
@altrinchamfc
74
Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
If the Dems run Ossoff in 2028, they'll walk into the White House.
If the Dems don't run Ossoff, they'd face a competitive race with Rubio or maybe DeSantis.
If the Republicans run Vance, the Democrats will win either way.
Income tax rates in the US 😂 you can draw conclusions about the income distribution relative to Europe
The 🇺🇸 IRS just released the new tax brackets for 2027
Single filers (2026 in parentheses):
10%: $12,800 or less ($12,400)
12%: over $12,800 ($12,400)
22%: over $52,025 ($50,400)
24%: over $109,125 ($105,700)
32%: over $208,325 ($201,775)
35%: over $264,550 ($256,225)
37%: over $661,375 ($640,600)
Married filing jointly (2026 in parentheses):
10%: $25,600 or less ($24,800)
12%: over $25,600 ($24,800)
22%: over $104,050 ($100,800)
24%: over $218,250 ($211,400)
32%: over $416,650 ($403,550)
35%: over $529,100 ($512,450)
37%: over $793,650 ($768,700)
106
By 2029? Lmao. So another 3 years of excess inflation after already overshooting for 6 years.
Do you see the problem?
Getting unlucky for a couple of years in a row - fine - but for an entire decade means that the monetary/fiscal mix is highly miscalibrated.
5/ So why raise rates? The Bank’s forecast assumes knock-on “second-round effects” will appear later, adding about 0.5 points to inflation. In its own scenario where they don’t, inflation falls to 1.2% by 2029, well below target.
1
1
119
Nothing but brainworms
🇩🇪🇵🇱 Niemiecka ciężarówka wojskowa, która uczestniczyła w zdarzeniu na polskiej A4, ma rejestrację Y-909 268.
To oznaczenie Bundeswehry, nie międzynarodowego dowództwa NATO (X).
Na pojeździe widnieje również symbol CSS – Combat Service Support, oznaczający wojskowe wsparcie logistyczne.
Skoro niemieckie ciężarówki przejeżdżały przez Polskę tranzytem, pozostają pytania:
Skąd jechały, dokąd zmierzały i jaki był cel tego transportu?
Polskie władze powinny to jasno wyjaśnić.
65
Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
I underestimated the country. We got an environment *even bluer than during the Great Recession.*
And Democrats surged across the Deep South, too, something I didn't foresee at all. It's something they've haven't managed at any point in the 21st century - gone today.
