Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 (@JuliusProbst) header
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Senior economist @Appcast/Stepstone. PhD @LundUniversity. Stint @ECB. Macro/econ history wonk, blogger, wannabe stoic, chess hobbyist, Scifi nerd. Views my own.

London, England
Joined November 2016
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
AWFUL. A family pleaded with ICE to deport their ill father so he could get out of detention. They even offered to pay for plane tickets. But ICE kept him jailed for two months after he accepted removal, his health deteriorating daily. He died hours after he was finally deported.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
1950: 60% of the world lived in extreme poverty. 2025: 10%. One of the biggest development gains of the past 75 years. But progress has stalled—and the path to 2050 is far less certain. Five facts from the data: blogs.worldbank.org/en/opend…
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
I'll take the over on that.
Anthropic CEO predicts cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease, mental illness will be cured in less than 10 years ACCELERATE
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Sacking Ed Miliband must be worth at least 0.2% GDP growth by this point.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a European far right as insane and conspiracy-obsessed as the Polish far right. What we’ve been seeing on social media since the attack in Kraków is absolutely mind-blowing.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
If the Dems run Ossoff in 2028, they'll walk into the White House. If the Dems don't run Ossoff, they'd face a competitive race with Rubio or maybe DeSantis. If the Republicans run Vance, the Democrats will win either way.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Why would Hispanics suddenly not like Trump? Total mystery, nothing happened in the past 2 years.
The Hispanic vote helped elected Trump in 2024. Republicans lost it big time on Tuesday.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
I underestimated the country. We got an environment *even bluer than during the Great Recession.* And Democrats surged across the Deep South, too, something I didn't foresee at all. It's something they've haven't managed at any point in the 21st century - gone today.
If the bottom truly falls out for the GOP, Great Recession-style, I think some of these reach seats *might* end up being competitive in 2026. But frankly it's still a very long way to that point.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
The wealth tax is being soundly rejected in the bluest state in the bluest of years. This is a very unpopular policy.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Dass viele Kritiker der "Mainstream-Ökonomik" wenig bis keine Ahnung davon haben, was diese Ökonomik denn so tut, ist unter Ökonomen bekannt. Aber dass ein solcher Kritiker unfreiwillig eingesteht, dass ihm 40 Jahre alte Zitierstandards etwas Neues sind, das verblüfft dann doch.
Replying to @wertgesetz
Nebenbei bemerkt: Die Fußnoten dort im Screenshot habe mich getriggert & ich habe mal reingeschaut. Mensch, was sind die Verweise überwiegend luschig? Autor/in (Jahr), das wars... Dass das bei einem Review so durchgeht...🥴
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Der Harvard-Zitationsstyle ist Standard in der Ökonomie imperial.ac.uk/admin-services…
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
I’D LIKE TO REPORT A FUCKING MURDER – at New York, NY
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Demanding economic growth has become unfashionable among some people in Europe. Instead they speak of a “cost of living crisis”. But it’s really one and the same. Economic growth means that incomes rise relative to prices. Economic growth means that the things we need become more affordable.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Badenoch channelling @Frencheconomics on the rationing of labour, capital and energy
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Brutal revision to the OBR housebuilding forecast
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Too many in the West don't understand the *actual* root cause of this war: Russia fundamentally believes it is their God given right to rule over Eastern Europe & its people. It's not that complicated.
🚨 Putin plans to use Ukraine peace talks to push NATO back to its 1997 military posture According to The Telegraph, the Kremlin wants to force NATO to scale back its military presence in Europe to levels seen before Eastern European countries joined the Alliance. This could mean demanding the withdrawal of NATO forces from Poland, the Baltic states, and Finland. That is why Moscow is pushing for European countries to participate in negotiations over Ukraine. Diplomatic sources cited by The Telegraph say Putin wants to turn talks about ending the war into negotiations over the entire European security architecture. The issue may also have been discussed during Putin's three-hour meeting with Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, in St. Petersburg. However, European countries have previously rejected the Kremlin's demands to reduce NATO's military presence on its eastern flank.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Replying to @UKLabour
@UKLabour is still on the defensive on leasehold reform, for no reason whatsoever other than the lack of courage and resolve to get it done. We have heard these promises and assurances many times before without action ... tick tock. They promised to move "at pace"; is this it?
LABOUR IS BACKTRACKING It’s now a top-tier political issue, with @bbclaurak drawing a car-crash performance from @AngelaRayner. Rayner refused to give leaseholders a cast-iron guarantee that the cost of extending a lease or buying out the freehold will come down. Yet that was Labour’s position in opposition. Labour warned that governments could be “lobbied by vested interests” into setting enfranchisement rates “that will be punitive for leaseholders”. And @mtpennycook even tabled amendments to the legislation that became the 2024 Act, seeking to make premiums “as cheap as possible for leaseholders”. Yet for the past two and a half years, the government has been stalling on the commencement of these enfranchisement reforms, already on the statute book, claiming they will only come into force once it has made “fixes” to the 2024 Act through the forthcoming Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill. But Pennycook’s opposition amendments, which sought to establish a “guiding principle” of “reducing premiums for leaseholders to their lowest possible level”, are not being carried forward. Look at the small print of the government consultation on lease extension and freehold buy-out rates that neither Rayner nor Pennycook publicised in the media. It opened on 15 July without an awareness campaign and closed on Wednesday. Once these rates are picked by Ministers, they are locked in for 10 years: what leaseholders must pay. The policy will decide whether leasehold will live or die. Leaseholders were left out in the cold again, while the consultation’s obscure legal and technical jargon favoured freeholders and their lawyer and valuer lobbyists, who will have flooded it with responses. Even our supporters who are economists, have PhDs, or have backgrounds in finance and regulation said they had never encountered a more exclusionary or gamed government consultation in their lives. But buried in that consultation is Labour’s U-turn, in paragraph 14: “… it is not intended to use prescribed rates in and of themselves, as a means of further reducing premiums for leaseholders”. The enfranchisement rates policy is now merely to: “... reduce the potential for dispute and provide certainty for leaseholders, freeholders and professionals as to what to expect from this part of the enfranchisement process.” So much, then, for Labour’s manifesto promise to “act where the Conservatives have failed and finally bring the feudal leasehold system to an end”. No wonder Rayner and Pennycook are lashing out. Note the sass when Rayner invokes the Prime Minister, as if @andyburnham saying the right things about leasehold were enough to guarantee that this government will ensure a policy agenda repeatedly captured by vested interests finally favours leaseholders, not the property mafia. All the evidence of the past two and a half years, the excuses, foot-dragging and U-turns, points in the opposite direction. And Rayner acts as if journalists in a democracy need ask no further questions about this vitally important issue. We want to work with the Prime Minister and his Number 10 team to get these reforms right, but we’re being shut out. It doesn’t help when the PM’s housing minister is calling the government’s U-turn “misinformation”. We’ve run this campaign long enough to know that talking is not the same as doing. And leaseholders are rapidly running out of time. Ending leasehold is the test of the Burnham government, whether they want it to be or not.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Whole lot of Gen Z really went to the polls in 2024 just to cook their own futures.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
For some species, we have made some recovery! Humpback whales, for example, have dramatically recovered.
the reason moby-dick remains such a vital piece of human art is that it addresses what is probably one of humanity's greatest collective atrocities, the genocide of the whales, with an ambivalence it cannot itself fully articulate. melville is distraught, but he can't explain why
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
“Lidl…argued Bath needed a budget supermarket in the east of the city and said the shop would create 40 jobs, reduce customer mileage by 29% and cut carbon emissions by 82 tonnes” Yet you give an “explanation” that contradicts all of that, with no supporting evidence
Replying to @clrjoannawright
I realise this needs more explanation
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Vivek Ramaswamy calls Medicare and Medicaid “mistakes.” Let me be clear: these programs are lifelines for millions of Ohioans. As governor, I will fight to protect Medicare and Medicaid and ensure Ohio families have access to the affordable care they need close to home.
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