I model sports props… but strikeouts are my favorite | Owner @AMPAnalytics_ | https://teapaw.org/t.co/7czOwLz7eb
Joined March 2023
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KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Acuff 3s 🪜 from @Dfsprodigy23
+177 ✅
+278 ✅
+620 ✅
discord.gg/7JgD56k6f
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Still going strong with now over 60 units of profit on NHL props over the last 4 weeks with a ROI comfortably in the double digits. Almost all of that volume and profit coming from SOG bets based on my projections.
Also want to shout out @KSplitAnalytics for helping my ideas come alive at AMPAnalyticsArena.com. I use many of the tools on the site daily to help me with my betting process and having all the tools and info I need in one place significantly increases my efficiency. Not only are my projections and probability distributions useful, but being able to reference team stats, expected line combos, and then having the various odds calculators (such as American -> % and expected ROI) plays a part in my decision making.
Up 44 units since October 2nd betting NHL props based on my projections at AMPAnalyticsArena.com.
One thing I want to point out however, is that I don’t blindly bet everything that my projections would suggest as good bets, or appear as the best bets on the website. I would never bet against my projections, but am selective in deciding what perceived edges to bet on. I just wanted to make that clear for anyone referencing the website, that I don’t use it as the only factor in deciding on bets, rather just the driving force.
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Can’t control the outcomes but we can control getting good prices. All of these posted in @AMPAnalytics_ discord today
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Why does everything have to be so sweaty lol. Nice little middle too 👀
discord.com/invite/ctqvdVQRQ…
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
An example of FD one way lines robbing the user
Since FD doesn't offer an under, they aren't forced to be competitive on this price. The theoretical vig can be anywhere from 5% to 50% (50% vig on -230 gets us a +141 fair value)
Fanduel knows most don't line shop, they hope you don't. If you throw this into a parlay with a +100 leg, your parlay would be +187 on FD and +388 on DK
Don't get robbed blind, invest in an odds screen
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
+735 SGP ✅ from @Dfsprodigy23
$225 ➡️ $1,878
AMPanalyticsarena.com
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Also just for some additional context
They’ve really made an effort this past year to appeal to the losing crowd. It’s what they’re supposed to do, they’re in business to make money that’s fine
But all of these things come at a cost
I have been running some specific scans of fanatics this season on ATTD props
Week 4 NFL the median EV of a touchdown scorer was -6%, not terrible and a lot of good plays
This past week the median EV was -13%
Excluding trends, stats etc, a +650 touchdown scorer in week 4 is now +600
That’s just one market but it’s the most bet on market for the NFL. imagine how some of their other ones are.
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Good morning everyone. In honor of the Buffalo Bills opportunity today to go 5-1 I’m gonna show you all some of my favorite tush pushes
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Whole team cooked last night 🔥 🔥
+8888 ✅ from @Dfsprodigy23
+3320 ✅ from @IIPatll
+3100 ✅ from @KSplitAnalytics
+2240✅ from @KSplitAnalytics
AMPanalyticsarena.com
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Player props heading in the wrong direction now.
Books don’t mind banning unders bc that’s another way to limit sharp bettors under the rouse of integrity.
Now they can post a player who’s prop fair is 20.5, but make it 24.5 bc they are never taking under action it. Just let the fish 🎣 bet it. That might not be what this is particularly but it’s where we’re headed.
The NBA and prominent sportsbooks have agreed to ban multiple types of bets, per me and @DavidPurdum, such as:
- Parlay bets involving the under on the same player's statistics
- "First of" market; examples: winner of opening tip, an individual's specific shot, rebound, assist, steal
- Under bets on players expected to play less than 12 minutes a game
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
An under 1.5, over 2.5, goals lotto, goalie saves… sniping everything today
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
1st Plate Appearance Ks from @KSplitAnalytics
.2u on parlay
.5u on each straight
1.7u total risk
