Prediction Markets Researcher & Analyst @Polymarket Bull DMs open
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Mbappé's Ballon d'Or chance went 18% → 9.5% → 30.3% since yesterday
the votes were locked in the whole time
Ballon d'Or tonight on @ProblyHQ :
＞ Kane 63.9%
＞ Mbappé 30.3%
＞ Yamal 6.3%
Mbappé hit 9.5% in the first half of El Clásico. then he scored twice and Real won 2-1 at Camp Nou
Yamal missed from close range. his price fell from 14.4% at kickoff to 6.3%
overnight, Madrid reporters said Real will attend for the first time since 2024. that year they stayed home when word got out Vinícius lost. by morning Mbappé was at 23%
Kane and Yamal are coming too, so attendance tells you little. voting closed Sep 28
Kane at 63.9%: safe pick or does Mbappé steal it tonight?
On October 11, Mbappé was 1.8% to win the Ballon d'Or
He is 22% this morning
Not one vote changed in between
The award covers August 2025 to July 2026, so Sunday's Clásico isn't even in the window
The result has been locked for four weeks
Polymarket has kept trading it
Polymarket, after voting closed vs now
＞ Mbappé: 1.8% low on Oct 11 → 22%
＞ Yamal: 60% peak on Oct 1 → 10%
＞ Kane: 32.6% low on Oct 1 → 68%
Each move is either noise or information about an answer that already exists
2024 is the precedent
Vinícius was 87.5% on ceremony morning, and a list on X billed as the leaked result had him winning
By mid-afternoon he was 5.7%
Real Madrid boycotted the ceremony in Paris, and Rodri won
In 2025, Dembélé was the morning favorite at 76%, and he won
Two ceremonies is too few to call a base rate
This year none of the top three is staying home
Fabrizio Romano reports Mbappé, Kane and Yamal will all attend
At 68% Kane is still the clear favorite
At 22% Mbappé is about a one-in-five shot
The ceremony starts tonight at 20:00 UTC in London
Is Mbappé's run from 1.8% to 22% information or noise?
football week on @ProblyHQ: hit Join, then trade the result in 5+ eligible matches, $10+ each.
get 3 or more right and you split $1,000 with the other winners.
trades close tomorrow ⚽️
probly.com/?r=KNIGHTPREDICT
🤝 Paid partnership
the $1WIN sale needs $13.7M more by Friday to clear $20M. since Oct 22 it's added $170K
the counter says NO. my own market on @xomarket says 69% YES
someone is wrong
＞ $13.7M by Friday is $3.2M a day. it's doing $45K a day
＞ at this pace it closes near $6.5M, about a third of the way
＞ the first 22 hours brought in $5.54M. the 10 days since brought in $750K
the YES case is in the sale terms
a deposit can't be withdrawn, and tokens are split pro-rata. getting in early earns you nothing extra. so a big wallet can wait for the last day
wait too long though, and you miss the close
where does the counter close on Oct 30?
🚨 Now live on XO, created by @KnightPredict!
Token sales are so back with @1win from the iGaming world using it for gaming activity and buyback-burn.
With $6.3M deposited already, can the 1win token sale cross $20M?
on Oct 16 @1win own example used 5x ($19.5M). on Oct 21 @1winToken's used 1.56x
market: beta.xo.market/event/will-th…
Knight retweeted
MBAPPÉ WENT FROM 2.9¢ TO 25.9¢ IN SIX DAYS ON A BALLON D'OR VOTE THAT CLOSED A MONTH AGO
WHAT MOVED IT?
tonight he plays Yamal in El Clásico. tomorrow the winner gets named in London
Polymarket now: Kane 70.7¢, Mbappé 17.8¢, Yamal 11.1¢. $64.7M traded
[ poly.market/Ballon_Winner_20… ]
＞ no games count, so the only new thing is talk. since Friday, posts claiming Mbappé won have been all over X, one with 1.4M views. on Oct 3, a "leaked results" post had Yamal winning. none confirmed
＞ leaks aren't always noise. in 2024, reports hours before the ceremony said Rodri, not Vinícius. Real Madrid skipped the show. Rodri won
if Mbappé scores tonight and his price jumps, that's not new information. the ballots were in a month ago
Kane at 70.7¢: easy money or a surprise ending tomorrow?
Knight retweeted
The S-1 didn't drop Friday
Anthropic's November IPO is still possible, with less time to get there
Anthropic submitted a draft S-1 confidentially in June
Under SEC policy, the S-1 has to go public at least 15 days before the roadshow
Yahoo Finance reported the filing could come as soon as Friday
Reuters reported the roadshow was planned for the week of Nov 9
For a Nov 9 start, the S-1 had to be public by Oct 25
EDGAR shows no public S-1 as of Sunday
A filing on Monday still allows a roadshow from Nov 10
A filing on Oct 30 means no roadshow before Nov 14, a Saturday
Nov 26 is Thanksgiving
Polymarket, Friday morning vs now
＞ Nov 20: 58% → 22.5%
＞ Nov 25: 68.5% → 53%
＞ Nov 30: 73% → 53%
＞ Dec 31: 84.5% → 75.5%
Nov 20 and Nov 25 are thin, $20,000 and $11,000 traded
Nov 30 has $472,000 traded
These markets resolve when shares start trading
Does the S-1 land next week, or does the IPO slide into December?
MBAPPÉ WENT FROM 2.9¢ TO 25.9¢ IN SIX DAYS ON A BALLON D'OR VOTE THAT CLOSED A MONTH AGO
WHAT MOVED IT?
tonight he plays Yamal in El Clásico. tomorrow the winner gets named in London
Polymarket now: Kane 70.7¢, Mbappé 17.8¢, Yamal 11.1¢. $64.7M traded
[ poly.market/Ballon_Winner_20… ]
＞ no games count, so the only new thing is talk. since Friday, posts claiming Mbappé won have been all over X, one with 1.4M views. on Oct 3, a "leaked results" post had Yamal winning. none confirmed
＞ leaks aren't always noise. in 2024, reports hours before the ceremony said Rodri, not Vinícius. Real Madrid skipped the show. Rodri won
if Mbappé scores tonight and his price jumps, that's not new information. the ballots were in a month ago
Kane at 70.7¢: easy money or a surprise ending tomorrow?
Knight retweeted
SAN FRANCISCO JUST DECLARED AN EL NIÑO EMERGENCY
Polymarket: 69% it's the strongest El Niño on record. NOAA's forecast points higher
would you buy "record" at 69¢?
＞ the record is RONI +2.40, set in 1982-83. 1997-98 peaked at 2.28, 2015-16 at 2.25
＞ this one is ahead of 1982's pace: 1.69 in Jul-Sep, 1982 was at 1.14
＞ NOAA's October 8 outlook: 83% chance Oct-Dec alone hits +2.5 or more
＞ the case for NO: 1997 was even hotter in Jul-Sep at 1.84 and stalled at 2.28
＞ resolves YES once NOAA prints any season above 2.40
＞ $100 on YES at the 70¢ ask pays $143. only about $230 sits on the asks before the next one at 90¢. keep it under $200 or your fill jumps
[ polymarket.com/event/will-th… ]
NOAA's outlook implies 83%+, the market says 69%. who's right?
SAN FRANCISCO JUST DECLARED AN EL NIÑO EMERGENCY
Polymarket: 69% it's the strongest El Niño on record. NOAA's forecast points higher
would you buy "record" at 69¢?
＞ the record is RONI +2.40, set in 1982-83. 1997-98 peaked at 2.28, 2015-16 at 2.25
＞ this one is ahead of 1982's pace: 1.69 in Jul-Sep, 1982 was at 1.14
＞ NOAA's October 8 outlook: 83% chance Oct-Dec alone hits +2.5 or more
＞ the case for NO: 1997 was even hotter in Jul-Sep at 1.84 and stalled at 2.28
＞ resolves YES once NOAA prints any season above 2.40
＞ $100 on YES at the 70¢ ask pays $143. only about $230 sits on the asks before the next one at 90¢. keep it under $200 or your fill jumps
[ polymarket.com/event/will-th… ]
NOAA's outlook implies 83%+, the market says 69%. who's right?
Knight retweeted
THE PENTAGON SEES A LEAK. POLYMARKET SEES A TRAIL
Hegseth's Oct 20 memo: "Our enemies watch movements in these markets"
＞ the ban: no trading on nonpublic government info, classified or not. it covers troops and DoD civilians. Polymarket and Kalshi are named
＞ in April an Army master sergeant was charged over $33k in Maduro and Venezuela positions that allegedly made $400k+. he pleaded not guilty
＞ prosecutors say he asked Polymarket to delete his account after online sleuths and the media flagged the payouts
＞ Oct 22 at NEXTPredict, Polymarket's Olivia Chalos: "I can't think of a single case where we didn't identify the individual almost within minutes"
she added: "the entire world and Twitter is surveilling it simultaneously"
catching the wallet later doesn't undo the price move. the signal is already out, so both of them are right
a fresh wallet sizes into a military market. insider or noise?
Knight retweeted
Republicans need two upsets to keep the Senate
Texas is tied in the new Fox News poll
Democrats are 67.5% to win the Senate on @trylimitless
They're also 67.5% to win both chambers
Democrats are 92.5% to win the House
A Democratic Senate with a Republican House is under 2%
So the midterms come down to the Senate
Democrats need to flip 4 Republican seats and hold all 13 seats they're defending
Markets favor them in 5 Republican seats: North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Maine and Texas
That leaves room for one miss
Fox has Talarico and Paxton at 49% each in the poll released Wednesday
In September, Fox had Talarico up 51 to 49
Talarico is still at 66.5% on @trylimitless
Lose Texas, and Democrats need all four other seats on that list
Or an upset in a race like Iowa or Kansas, where they trail
They'd also need to hold Michigan
It's the weakest of the 13
Is Texas the seat that decides the Senate, or the one Democrats can afford to lose?
THE PENTAGON SEES A LEAK. POLYMARKET SEES A TRAIL
Hegseth's Oct 20 memo: "Our enemies watch movements in these markets"
＞ the ban: no trading on nonpublic government info, classified or not. it covers troops and DoD civilians. Polymarket and Kalshi are named
＞ in April an Army master sergeant was charged over $33k in Maduro and Venezuela positions that allegedly made $400k+. he pleaded not guilty
＞ prosecutors say he asked Polymarket to delete his account after online sleuths and the media flagged the payouts
＞ Oct 22 at NEXTPredict, Polymarket's Olivia Chalos: "I can't think of a single case where we didn't identify the individual almost within minutes"
she added: "the entire world and Twitter is surveilling it simultaneously"
catching the wallet later doesn't undo the price move. the signal is already out, so both of them are right
a fresh wallet sizes into a military market. insider or noise?
Knight retweeted
Papertrade lost 41% of its TVL since Oct 20. it now sits $1.4M above the line
$61.9M then, $36.4M now. the line is $35M on Tuesday. that's the call in @prophetthedog new ape or fade vote
voting is free [graveyard.prophetthedog.xyz/…]
＞ log in with X or connect a wallet. YES is ape, NO is fade
＞ whichever side gets more votes turns into one position for the whole group
＞ every voter gets that position as an NFT
＞ DefiLlama settles it at 12:00 PM PT on Oct 27. exactly $35M counts as NO
＞ hit: a random draw picks 10 voters, and they split the prize
＞ miss: burn your NFT at the Graveyard, then spin Prophet's Moonshot for free. some spins pay nothing
vote NO while most vote YES, and your NFT still says YES
so make the case for your side in the replies before Tuesday
4 days left. does Papertrade hold $35M?
Papertrade has been proposed to be a $60M rug scheme
Its TVL experiences a loss of 70%, sliding down from $100M to $36M since launch date
Never was bullish on it, moreover after points system update (early users' efforts will be washed)
Here's how to profit from the TVL fall:
I made a prediction that Papertrade's TVL will not be above $35M on Tuesday on Prophet [graveyard.prophetthedog.xyz/…]
In return I get a tokenized prediction, an NFT that shows my picked side
> If my prediction wins - I get an airdrop in $PROPHET
> If not - I can burn my NFT and spin a wheel and still get some portion of tokens
That's basically rekt to riches mechanic
Papertrade lost 41% of its TVL since Oct 20. it now sits $1.4M above the line
$61.9M then, $36.4M now. the line is $35M on Tuesday. that's the call in @prophetthedog new ape or fade vote
voting is free [graveyard.prophetthedog.xyz/…]
＞ log in with X or connect a wallet. YES is ape, NO is fade
＞ whichever side gets more votes turns into one position for the whole group
＞ every voter gets that position as an NFT
＞ DefiLlama settles it at 12:00 PM PT on Oct 27. exactly $35M counts as NO
＞ hit: a random draw picks 10 voters, and they split the prize
＞ miss: burn your NFT at the Graveyard, then spin Prophet's Moonshot for free. some spins pay nothing
vote NO while most vote YES, and your NFT still says YES
so make the case for your side in the replies before Tuesday
4 days left. does Papertrade hold $35M?
Papertrade has been proposed to be a $60M rug scheme
Its TVL experiences a loss of 70%, sliding down from $100M to $36M since launch date
Never was bullish on it, moreover after points system update (early users' efforts will be washed)
Here's how to profit from the TVL fall:
I made a prediction that Papertrade's TVL will not be above $35M on Tuesday on Prophet [graveyard.prophetthedog.xyz/…]
In return I get a tokenized prediction, an NFT that shows my picked side
> If my prediction wins - I get an airdrop in $PROPHET
> If not - I can burn my NFT and spin a wheel and still get some portion of tokens
That's basically rekt to riches mechanic
Knight retweeted
Polymarket gives 28.5% that SCOTUS takes a sports event contract case by Dec 31
too high or too low?
New Jersey already asked the court to step in, and Kalshi's response is due Nov 9. the states aren't waiting
＞ Utah sued Kalshi and two Susquehanna firms that make markets on it. it's the first state lawsuit to name a prediction market's market makers. Utah wants Kalshi to give up an estimated $30.6M to $61.2M in fees from Utah accounts
＞ Ohio again told its sportsbooks, fantasy operators and suppliers to cut off platforms that offer sports contracts in Ohio without a license. confirm by Oct 30 or the license is in question
＞ on the federal side, the CFTC told Novig and ProphetX not to list micro markets and scorigami for now. none were live, so no open position is hit
if market makers decide the legal risk isn't worth it, sports order books get thinner
the Third Circuit says these contracts are swaps and federal law shields them from the states. the Sixth and Ninth say they aren't swaps at all
which reading wins at the Supreme Court?
Polymarket gives 28.5% that SCOTUS takes a sports event contract case by Dec 31
too high or too low?
New Jersey already asked the court to step in, and Kalshi's response is due Nov 9. the states aren't waiting
＞ Utah sued Kalshi and two Susquehanna firms that make markets on it. it's the first state lawsuit to name a prediction market's market makers. Utah wants Kalshi to give up an estimated $30.6M to $61.2M in fees from Utah accounts
＞ Ohio again told its sportsbooks, fantasy operators and suppliers to cut off platforms that offer sports contracts in Ohio without a license. confirm by Oct 30 or the license is in question
＞ on the federal side, the CFTC told Novig and ProphetX not to list micro markets and scorigami for now. none were live, so no open position is hit
if market makers decide the legal risk isn't worth it, sports order books get thinner
the Third Circuit says these contracts are swaps and federal law shields them from the states. the Sixth and Ninth say they aren't swaps at all
which reading wins at the Supreme Court?
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
polymarket.com/event/scotus-…
🤝 Paid partnership
Knight retweeted
A DRAW KILLS A HOME-WIN LEG JUST LIKE A LOSS
TONIGHT'S UCL PRICES PUT THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE DRAW IN THESE 9 AT 86%
yesterday 2 of 9 games were draws
＞ Fenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia
＞ Stuttgart 1-1 Atlético
the draw is priced highest in Lille vs Galatasaray at 26.5%
Bayern vs Arsenal and Como vs Man United are next at 25.5%
the 4 big favorites aren't safe either
Inter, Real Madrid, Sporting, Aston Villa: 44% chance at least one of them gets held to a draw
which one ends level tonight?
Inter, Real Madrid, Sporting and Aston Villa are each priced near 80% to win tonight
All four winning together is priced at about 41%
Less than a coin flip
All 9 Champions League home teams are favored tonight on @trylimitless
Their prices add up to 5.65 home wins out of 9, or 63%
In the league phase's first two seasons, home teams won 148 of 288 games
About half
Four lopsided games explain the gap
＞ Inter to beat Shakhtar: 81.1%
＞ Real Madrid to beat Leipzig: 80%
＞ Sporting to beat LASK: 79.2%
＞ Aston Villa to beat Viking: 79%
The other five are far from safe
＞ Betis to beat Feyenoord: 61.5%
＞ Brugge to beat Lens: 53.6%
＞ Bayern to beat Arsenal: 44%
＞ Lille to beat Galatasaray: 44%
＞ Como to beat Man United: 42.6%
All 9 favorites winning: about 1%
How many of the 9 home teams win tonight?
A DRAW KILLS A HOME-WIN LEG JUST LIKE A LOSS
TONIGHT'S UCL PRICES PUT THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE DRAW IN THESE 9 AT 86%
yesterday 2 of 9 games were draws
＞ Fenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia
＞ Stuttgart 1-1 Atlético
the draw is priced highest in Lille vs Galatasaray at 26.5%
Bayern vs Arsenal and Como vs Man United are next at 25.5%
the 4 big favorites aren't safe either
Inter, Real Madrid, Sporting, Aston Villa: 44% chance at least one of them gets held to a draw
which one ends level tonight?
Inter, Real Madrid, Sporting and Aston Villa are each priced near 80% to win tonight
All four winning together is priced at about 41%
Less than a coin flip
All 9 Champions League home teams are favored tonight on @trylimitless
Their prices add up to 5.65 home wins out of 9, or 63%
In the league phase's first two seasons, home teams won 148 of 288 games
About half
Four lopsided games explain the gap
＞ Inter to beat Shakhtar: 81.1%
＞ Real Madrid to beat Leipzig: 80%
＞ Sporting to beat LASK: 79.2%
＞ Aston Villa to beat Viking: 79%
The other five are far from safe
＞ Betis to beat Feyenoord: 61.5%
＞ Brugge to beat Lens: 53.6%
＞ Bayern to beat Arsenal: 44%
＞ Lille to beat Galatasaray: 44%
＞ Como to beat Man United: 42.6%
All 9 favorites winning: about 1%
How many of the 9 home teams win tonight?