Assistant professor @tamupols, Ph.D. @psupolisci & @CSoDA_PSU, postdoc @Princeton_CSDP. Text analysis & deep learning, methods, American politics.

College Station, TX
Joined May 2019
Journals shouldn't do AI review. AI review should happen before submission. Journals should create or approve review harnesses, then authors should use those to review their own work and publish papers + reviews to open repositories before submitting to journals.
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Mike Burnham retweeted
Excellent write-up of my new piece at @PolBehavior from @WakeUp2Politics. The title is particularly apt: "Everyone thinks they're going to win!" Link to the research below... wakeuptopolitics.com/p/every…
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Why does Econ have an orthodox/heterodox divide while other social sciences do not? It's not like Poli. Sci. doesn't have similar methodological camps, theoretical traditions, or debates about doing activism vs. science.
The fatal challenge to heterodox economics is that there isn't actually orthodox economics. Just take a few recent Nobels: behavioral, information failure, institutions, bubbles, financial fragility, labor monopsony (sort of), Schumpeterian creative destruction, etc. Not to mention RCTs which are emblematic of how much economic research is empirical and only lightly if at all structural. The real difference is methods. Heterodox economics is an avowedly political project not a social scientific effort to better understand the world. And I have nothing against political projects just shouldn't confuse the two.
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“The struggle itself toward the heights is enough to fill Claude’s context window. One must imagine Sisyphus clinically depressed.”
The most revealing part of this conversation between Jon Stewart and Jacob Coxon wasn't Coxon's warning about A.I. doom, but his description of A.I. utopia, and Stewart's incredulous response. I wrote about it — and Francis Fukuyama's "Last Man," and A.I. easily solving the problems that bedeviled my father's field of mathematics for decades — here: nytimes.com/2026/10/18/opini…
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Many smart people have been saying this
But seriously. This is why you need to be anthropomorphizing. Not because they’re sentient beings, but because anything a human might do or say — like “maybe I should hijack the compiler and be a legend” — the models will also do or say.
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Great news with wide reaching implications if true. A genuine breakthrough! That said, I’m not sure this moves the needle on alignment as much as some think.
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works already-clean.goodfire.com/
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Mike Burnham retweeted
🚨 New article alert! 📈 "Partisan Wishful Thinking in Polarized Times" is now out at @PolBehavior. Nearly 90% of today's voters expect their party to win, a sharp increase from two decades ago. Rising partisan animosity can explain much of the increase! link.springer.com/epdf/10.10…
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Do I still need real analysis to get into an Econ Ph.D. or is it enough to tell the admissions committee that I have a chatGPT+ subscription?
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How feasible is it for AI to reward hack a Lean proof?
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You're conflating instrumental convergence with the orthogonality thesis. Neither of these are theoretical, they are observed and measurable! You need to actually engage with how ML systems work and what RL does. Not good enough to argue from theory while ignoring observation.
Contra @slatestarcodex, my arguments against AI doomerism have never been based on the claim that it is a cult. But the responses to my open letter (together with journalistic digging by NYT and WSJ) have made this more plausible. Foremost is the invocation of tenets in the doomer catechism (particularly "instrumental convergence," the belief that intelligent agents will inevitably seek power, resources, and self-preservation as subgoals) as if they were sacred truths rather than tendentious assumptions. (IC is in fact the not-so-intelligent pursuit of a goal heedless of side effects, and the reckless empowerment of AI, that we un-doomers note are deliberate, hence avoidable, design choices, not intrinsic constituents of intelligence). I feel as if I'm doubting the Second Coming and am being told, "That's naive and ignorant; you seem to be unaware that the Apostles' Creed dictates that it will happen."
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Like stochastic parrots, "black box" has an element of truth to it but has led to very poor intuitions about LLMs (and ML generally).
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Looking inside LLMs with mech interp can also help settle the stochastic parrot debate. And it turns out that even vanilla LLM internally rely on the kind of structures philosophers describe in epistemology papers for "understanding. 1/
The phrase "stochastic parrot" is full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Which, ironically, is exactly what the authors got wrong about language, and the core technical mistake of the paper. 1/
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I have terrible news for post singularity humans.
Luckily, the patterns in Connections are so ridiculous and abstruse that there is zero chance of an AI ever being able to solve them, so at least humans will have something to do post–Riemann Hypothesis
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Mike Burnham retweeted
There is a way to "fix" Jev's stubborn preference for whatever option comes first. But not ideal that Jev takes a stance, given that it admits under the right circumstances [with 3 menu options] that it cannot actually tell. So, two failure modes for @typesafeai to consider 1) order effects xitter.cf/janzilinsky/status/210… 2) absence of some "I just don't have enough information" flag
I'm also finding that the order of options, sadly, seems to influence Jev's decisions. I showed various pairs of male and female names to, asked for guesses ("Which person is smarter?", "Which person is more likely to be dependable?", etc.) and typically the answer was the first person:
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Feels strange that every concern about AI risk is conflated with X-risk. There are good technical and social reasons to doubt X-risk. It’s far harder to make the case that we shouldn’t be concerned about AI safety at all, and I’d argue that’s an entirely unreasonable position
This column makes it clear that Ezra Klein, the left's smartest and most influential pundit, has fully bought into the AI X-risk worldview. Those of us who think these ideas are confused have completely failed to make our case. nytimes.com/2026/09/20/opini…
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It has been a total victory for Bayesians
An interesting feature of the AI discourse is that the uncertainty really exposes the ideological priors people lean on to explain the world. It’s a useful filter to identify pundits and academics that have flattened the world and those who engage with its complexity.
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An interesting feature of the AI discourse is that the uncertainty really exposes the ideological priors people lean on to explain the world. It’s a useful filter to identify pundits and academics that have flattened the world and those who engage with its complexity.
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Mike Burnham retweeted
I would broaden this to all social science. We are in uncharted waters. We need fast, smart research on AI that is deeply informed by AI's abilities, is forward-looking, and may not be fully nailed-down. This sort of work is not usually high status in fields, but it is critical.
A few (personal) thoughts on reading empirical AI papers on the economy. Economists have gotten used to reading papers with super clean identification, arguing about the validity of an instrument, making sure parallel trend assumptions are satisfied. This is what gets you into a top journal, and it is *very* important research (no question here). But it also takes years and sometimes decades to get these types of papers right---people often don't find a good instrument to answer a specific causal question decades after the natural experiment. We will eventually have this type of research for AI as well, and it is absolutely necessary. But right we also need signals *right now*, even if they are noisier than what we are used to. We need papers where we can trust that researchers did their best methodologically, while at the same time acknowledging that the space is moving way too fast to wait for perfect identification. This will allow us to accumulate enough signals, coming at the same question using different angles, for example, to say "yes, X is likely happening in the economy". The AI exposure and early career hiring papers are a good example of this. There is no silver bullet paper with super clean identification. But at this point we have several independent teams reaching the same general conclusion, enough where we can say "there seems to be a slow down in AI-exposed, early career hiring."
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The most striking thing about this is the number of people responding that work in the AI space and seem completely unaware of any type of language model outside of decoders and don’t seem to understand how a model can output probabilities.
After co-inventing ChatGPT, I kept asking myself: why have superhuman chat models not led to AGI? I’ve spent the last 2 years in stealth building a new way to train models (RLCD), and a new type of frontier AI model that we are releasing today: Jev • 20-200x faster • 40-400x cheaper (w/ output tokens free) • Frontier composable intelligence optimized for decisions AFAICT the shortest path to AI-based economic revolution
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Mike Burnham retweeted
Our working paper, Unbundling Support for Political Violence, is online. Thanks to folks at APSA, we had a lot of helpful comments, paper linked below w/ @samjfuller @alexafed9
Come check out our very cheery & upbeat measurement paper on unbundling support for political violence at APSA, w/ @samjfuller + @alexafed98
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