Market Omega

Hard for me to get behind the scarcity argument for Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin is scarce (only 21 million will ever exist). But scarcity alone doesn't create value. Bitcoin's value comes from people believing it's worth something and paying for that belief. And that belief can change. Compare it to stocks, yes stocks are also valued based on perceived value and perception of that value can change. But the main difference is the underlying business, revenue, profit, growth, etc. In other words, even if the market tanks at least I'll pay some multiple of earnings for a stock. One can argue there's an underlying business for Bitcoin as well and you can value it the same way, but I just don't see it. Hard to value Bitcoin as a multiple of earnings/growth. Same goes for land. Land is valuable because of perceived value but that perceived value has an underlying use case. For example, sure land price can jump due to speculation and it can crash too. But in the end, a good piece of land still has value to build something on it (ie., a building on a busy city corner or a house overlooking the ocean). You can say Bitcoin has an underlying use case, namely store of value. But its store of value use depends on its perceived value. Meaning, if let's say there's a better store of value and people don't value Bitcoin as much, then its price drops which inherently negatively impact its store of value proposition. In other words, what's Bitcoin's underlying business that I'm buying outside its store of value proposition. Even gold has an underlying some value outside of its store of value proposition. Gold is used in jewelry, electronics, etc. But still much of its use is still resting on its perceived value, ie., in jewelry. But it has thousands of years of history vs Bitcoin. You could say Bitcoin's use is money transfer, meaning final settlement without intermediaries. But is that use case durable? I'm not convinced. It's already being disrupted, and not by banks. Stablecoins do the job better for most people, because people want to send dollars, not a volatile asset. But I'm not betting against Bitcoin because it's possible the belief in Bitcoin doesn't die and it becomes a lasting global neutral reserve asset. I'm just not sold on it.

I sat down with @polinapompliano to break down Bitcoin’s sell-off, why the bear market may be over, and why AI’s abundance makes scarce assets like bitcoin more valuable. We also discuss the Anthropic IPO, the man with power over Anthropic’s board, kung fu robots, AI psychosis, and my biggest bitcoin regret. YouTube: youtu.be/Yzg78zu4uf8?si=K4Ns… Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/7k3… Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas… TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 0:58 - Is bitcoin going to zero? Bear market & Q4 outlook 7:44 - Is AI stealing capital from bitcoin? 13:01 - Anthropic IPO & why AI is bullish for bitcoin 14:26 - Ad Ends 17:58 - Anthropic’s public benefit shares vs Elon & Michael Dell 22:30 - Who is Buddy Shah? 25:38 - AI regulation, profits vs humanity 32:58 - Should we fear kung fu robots? 34:49 - How AI impacted our family & privacy fears 41:07 - Separating products from the BS 45:39 - AI psychosis & Pomp’s biggest bitcoin regret 52:20 - Ambition vs delusion