Non-tech Hooman w/in a quant framework. Creativity won't come from an LLM. 🇺🇸 in UY/AR NOT ADVICE. Not financial or any type of advice, but strong opinions.
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Joined January 2024
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I’ll add this to the free section to explain what I call “two-tails.” What makes El Niños unique is that precipitation becomes more predictable (clustered), while temps tend to rise in specific regions and timeframes.
This is why so many traders are piling into the El Niño trade: it’s predictable, which means a higher probability of directional price outcomes.
nicoaiq.substack.com/p/el-ni…
Great read, straightforward, digestible for everyone.
THE PERKINI REPORT: THE 2028 REALITY CRISIS
What if the most obvious financial bubble in all of history turns out to be.... a bubble... and what if that is just really.... bearish?
there were signs, there are always signs 🤣
free link:
hub.tslombard.com/the-perkin…
inspired by @citrini
After the first round, I shared the following charts showing how sudden shocks to the Brazilian currency filtered through in a single session (or two) depending on when.
Look for some extra weakness if Lula is confirmed as the winner.
If you're like the rest of us, frustrated or confused by the actions of the USDA, then this is the piece for you.
And wheat.
nicoaiq.substack.com/p/be-ho…
“We’ve investigated ourselves and found no wrongdoing. Contact somebody else in the agency who I will instruct to not answer your questions.”
LH
NASS just corrected an error in the Sept. WASDE. USDA’s NASS says it found a processing error in September 2026 corn data affecting Kansas, Nebraska and U.S. yield and production forecasts.
NASS corrected the September figures, but October’s WASDE forecast remains unchanged: 181.2 bu./acre, up 2.7 bu. from September, with production projected at more than 16 billion bushels.
nass.usda.gov/Newsroom//Noti…
This is the one to read 👇
xitter.cf/NicoAIQ/status/2114360…
If you're like the rest of us, frustrated or confused by the actions as the USDA, then this is the piece for you.
And wheat.
nicoaiq.substack.com/p/be-ho…
There's a new version of this post
Clients are learning that AiQ will replace these services & build proxies for walled off data with better domain expertise.
This will happen everywhere.
Don’t ever ask a weather man or a legacy newsletter for opinions again. We’ll model it for your biz and deliver the data.
The democratisation of financial intelligence has driven pretty much everything Ive done.
For years I paid Bloomberg and Refinitiv to build business cycle indicators and dashboards... then AI arrived and I thought... why not just give it to people? Let them play with it, the same way a generation of investors got used to TradingView and technical analysis.
So I built the GMI dashboards on Real Vision myself. Every layer compresses down to one question: what do we need to do now?
I walk through all of it in this weeks episode of The Journeyman. Full episode on my YouTube.
As ever, please enjoy!
One major consequence of NASS's unaccountable process is they've amplified what AiQ dubs
"The Surprise Factor"
They drive random moves and volatility, making hedging and risk management far more costly to the industry.
While everyone is focused on poor @usda_nass work was on corn yields, please remember, in August they RAISED rice acres.
Take a look at the history of in-seasons acre increases and profitability.
🇺🇸 agriculture when they realize the USDA is transferring billions of dollars to foreign buyers while farmers and consumers struggle to make ends meet.
Nico retweeted
Sign up at our website and I will provide copious amounts of data to demonstrate the failure of @usda_nass and the ongoing damage to the industry.
They raised rice acres in August, and refused to lower yields. Prices are up 70% yoy because farmers lost records amount of $$.
Sign up at our website and I will provide copious amounts of data to demonstrate the failure of @usda_nass and the ongoing damage to the industry.
They raised rice acres in August, and refused to lower yields. Prices are up 70% yoy because farmers lost records amount of $$.
Nico retweeted
In Brazil, Congress is the adult in the room.
And I would also add the Central Bank of Brazil to the list of adults.
Imagine that, a sound Congress and central bank.
Would be weird if the Real became a flight to safety trade.
At Spectra FX today, we hosted a call with Maurício Moura, a Brazilian economist, pollster, and the founder and CEO of the research institute IDEIA Big Data. He's good. Here are Spectra's takeaways.
1: Flavio is 85/15 favourite. Lula has run a very good round 2 campaign and without that it would be 95/5. Polymarket is 75/25.
2: Lula needs to get a lot of votes from abstentions in the first round. However beyond that...
3: The market is looking at too big a differential between the outcome of either winner.
Lula won't be able to pass most of his fiscal stuff. However similarly despite controlling congress, Flavio also won't command much respect. The presidential position in Brazil is much weaker compared to Congress than it has become in the US.
The cold reality is that macro matters a lot more than politics--in fact the common knowledge has been exactly backwards. The currency (BRL) has outperformed under left-leaning government and underperformed when more right wingers come in. Probably a coincidence, not an indictment of the right.
As you zoom out and move away from election day--
Macro matters much more than local policy in Brazil. (e.g., China entering WTO, commodity supercycle bust, COVID, etc.)
Obviously this won't matter day one, flows will follow what they believe to be true, but when you zoom out--
This too shall pass.
Chart shows BRL total return, including carry (log).
Final note: Spectra has done a wild amount of USDBRL volume through this election. If you work at a hedge fund and trade FX options, you should be covered by Spectra FX! We are on Bloomberg. :]
#gittinsbrasil2026
@thegitt
