At Spectra FX today, we hosted a call with Maurício Moura, a Brazilian economist, pollster, and the founder and CEO of the research institute IDEIA Big Data. He's good. Here are Spectra's takeaways. 1: Flavio is 85/15 favourite. Lula has run a very good round 2 campaign and without that it would be 95/5. Polymarket is 75/25. 2: Lula needs to get a lot of votes from abstentions in the first round. However beyond that... 3: The market is looking at too big a differential between the outcome of either winner. Lula won't be able to pass most of his fiscal stuff. However similarly despite controlling congress, Flavio also won't command much respect. The presidential position in Brazil is much weaker compared to Congress than it has become in the US. The cold reality is that macro matters a lot more than politics--in fact the common knowledge has been exactly backwards. The currency (BRL) has outperformed under left-leaning government and underperformed when more right wingers come in. Probably a coincidence, not an indictment of the right. As you zoom out and move away from election day-- Macro matters much more than local policy in Brazil. (e.g., China entering WTO, commodity supercycle bust, COVID, etc.) Obviously this won't matter day one, flows will follow what they believe to be true, but when you zoom out-- This too shall pass. Chart shows BRL total return, including carry (log). Final note: Spectra has done a wild amount of USDBRL volume through this election. If you work at a hedge fund and trade FX options, you should be covered by Spectra FX! We are on Bloomberg. :] #gittinsbrasil2026 @thegitt