Macro Cycles. Novel Theory. Repeating Era of Societal Movements. Markets, Technology, War and Prosperity, Empire, & more.
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Joined September 2023
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Bitcoin vs Global M2
In 2025, it was very popular to post charts with Global M2 compared to Bitcoin with some offset. For awhile it worked, and then the trends diverged when Bitcoin's bear market started, and many people had a field day dunking on the comparisons.
The truth is that the rhythm was almost a perfect match when offset by 84 days, and still has been through the bear market and to today. Remove the trend, and you can see it moving in unison turn for turn.
This is the difference between understanding rhythm and being fooled by price levels. Trends can diverge, but a shared rhythm will persist.
The shifted Global M2 has put in a pivot low and is not heading higher. This is aligned with the daily cycle of Bitcoin and the Risk Rhythm bottoming.
The Risk Rhythm
We are still in the window for a bottom on the 40-day cycle. The SPX got a confirmation out of the Oct 16 low, but the Nasdaq did not. A secondary low can happen, and then re-trigger the bottoming process.
Despite this, the price action is not favorable to a large move higher. It looks more likely that we have to wait until the 120-day cycle bottoms in mid-November before we get the next decisive move higher into the end of the year.
$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ
Oil Daily and Weekly Cycles
Oil has hit the VAH and descending trend line again. Expect a bit of a pullback here, it could be rather small or even sideways, for a few days.
After that, upside pressure should resume with two potential peak timings of ~Nov 3 and ~Nov 18.
A deep pullback might point to these peak timings being revisits to the trend line. A shallow pullback probably points to breaking the trend line.
The daily and weekly cycle curves are now switched to the "bull" view.
$CL $USO
Oil Daily and Weekly Cycles
With Friday's close and today's open, oil has all but confirmed the daily cycle low is in. This would also strongly suggest that the weekly mid-cycle low is in and we are headed higher.
The weekly curve tells us that we should expect upwards pressure on price until early November. This would override the early peak of oil's daily curve, and push the peak to a later swing high closer to the middle of the cycle.
$CL $USO
This is something I have never thought about, because I don’t use Elliot wave or know it well, but the 105-year cycle is modeled well as a 5-wave count where waves 1, 3, and 5 are the three 35-year bubbles of the RESM in succession.
This is an excellent graphic showing how the slope of all charts will only get steeper as we head towards the end of The Big Parabola.
Gold Daily and Weekly Cycles
With the weakness that gold has now shown out of a daily cycle low by breaking the anchor low, it is now time to show a higher time frame fractal that most goldbugs will not be happy with.
There was an expectation that we would at least get a slight bump out of the daily cycle low to match the last weekly rhythm bar of the fractal before the drop, but we didn't even get that.
With this breakdown, we can now switch to either the newly created "Neutral" or "Bear" average curves of the daily cycle. See those below.
$GLD $GOLD $XAUUSD $XAU
Gold Daily Cycles
Gold seems to be setting up a move off of the lows, with both the 50-day and the 13-day cycles bottoming.
Again, RESM theory does not expect a large move, or new highs anytime soon. This would most likely resolve with a move back into the range and a rejection at an important level such as the POC.
$GLD $GOLD $XAUUSD $XAU
The last 2.5 months have been dedicated to building out the quantitative tools of RESM theory, and work involving my PhD research:
1. Monthly Risk Price Index (est. 1692)
2. Yearly Risk Price Index (est. 1263)
3. Decadal Risk Venture Index (est. ~800 BC)
4. Yearly Economic Downturn Index (est. 1260)
I will consider sharing parts of this, but consideration to my PhD research and publications needs to be paid.
Now that 1 and 2 are pretty much in a complete state. I will return to writing the first two books I promised about 6 months ago, which are ~50% written. I aim to complete them by the end of the year.
Is the Circle (CRCL) chart giving it away? RWA hype cycle right around the corner?
@OVmarkets @lourenco_vs @quantdata21
$CRCL $RWA
Aside from oil and bonds, brutal day for longs yesterday.
Gold is weaker than expected, already breaking below the 50 day cycle anchor. This provides a good opportunity to showcase a new feature that has been in the works:
Different average curves for bull, bear, and neutral instances of cycles.
The same underlying cyclical rhythm can appear characteristically different if the trend is up versus down. So, different average curves can help track the cycle even better when it is clear if the cycle will be positive or negative.
I will try to showcase that today with both the Gold and Oil daily cycles.
Gold Daily Cycles
Gold seems to be setting up a move off of the lows, with both the 50-day and the 13-day cycles bottoming.
Again, RESM theory does not expect a large move, or new highs anytime soon. This would most likely resolve with a move back into the range and a rejection at an important level such as the POC.
$GLD $GOLD $XAUUSD $XAU
Bitcoin Weekly and Daily Cycles
The daily cycle has confirmed a low with a 10 SMA close and a cRSI re-entry from below the channel.
With Bitcoin seemingly taking on the Risk Rhythm of the SP500, and bottoming early on the 4-year cycle. I am issuing a tentative weekly cycle curve now for Bitcoin at ~33 weeks. This is half of the 66-week cycle of the Risk Rhythm. The starting point of the current instance is also tentative, so take it with a grain of salt.
It points to some upward momentum now, with the real inflection point coming up sometime in November.
$BTC $IBIT
Bitcoin Daily Cycles
The weekly rhythm of the previous cycle bottom was not a clean wrap, there was a reset of the rhythm.
We are now in a window where there is an agreement between The Risk Rhythm cycles and the legacy bitcoin cycles: we should be seeing a daily cycle low for Bitcoin right about now.
A 10 SMA close and a cRSI channel re-entry will confirm it, after finding support on the 50 EMA.
$BTC $IBIT
A view on the daily chart with the cycle brackets bottoming simultaneously. This shows the matching rhythm almost down to a daily time farme.
"AI-related"
The definition for this concentration chart changes on what seems like an hourly basis.
Including the whole market cap of companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla is "analyst slop".
