TradFi shit is cracking. Crypto is an exit. One shot. One opportunity. Let's go!
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Joined July 2024
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[01/12] Big Debt Cycle Endgame 🔥
This is the most important (and longest) thread you'll read in the next 10 years by me.
We're diving deep into the two questions that actually matter:
- Where the hell are we in the Big Debt Cycle and where is it headed?
- How do you actually position yourself for a Global Depression and rising Global Conflicts?
🧵👇
Disclaimer ⚠️
None of this is financial advice.
Think for yourself.
DYOR.
Own your outcomes.
The dates, years, and windows I mention? Estimates. Educated guesses based on current data. I can't see the future.
Watch developments, wait for confirmations, don't bet on expectations. I'll keep posting relevant updates here as long as X lets me.
Follow if you want the real-time alpha. Like + follow if you're ready to face reality 😉
ChurchOfTheCycle retweeted
Good luck fading one of the most reliable bullish signals in BTC’s history
ChurchOfTheCycle retweeted
This is something I have never thought about, because I don’t use Elliot wave or know it well, but the 105-year cycle is modeled well as a 5-wave count where waves 1, 3, and 5 are the three 35-year bubbles of the RESM in succession.
// $BTC 1W
Nothing but a retest so far. But Fear at max. Chill, guys. We are just reclaiming the BMSB.
ChurchOfTheCycle retweeted
That would confirm the recent years Bitcoin pattern, do nothing for weeks, push hard for few days, do nothing for weeks, push hard for few days etc would not be surprised
ChurchOfTheCycle retweeted
The 2022-2023 fractal for $BTC everyone's been talking about... Would indicate a very quick repricing, very soon. One analog is not certainty, but this one has been doing rounds lately.
ChurchOfTheCycle retweeted
Two types of people.
Those who see short-term chop and downside.
Those who see altcoins at macro cycle lows.
ChurchOfTheCycle retweeted
The last 2.5 months have been dedicated to building out the quantitative tools of RESM theory, and work involving my PhD research:
1. Monthly Risk Price Index (est. 1692)
2. Yearly Risk Price Index (est. 1263)
3. Decadal Risk Venture Index (est. ~800 BC)
4. Yearly Economic Downturn Index (est. 1260)
I will consider sharing parts of this, but consideration to my PhD research and publications needs to be paid.
Now that 1 and 2 are pretty much in a complete state. I will return to writing the first two books I promised about 6 months ago, which are ~50% written. I aim to complete them by the end of the year.
This one lit up my day. I hope it does the same for you.
Life works in the most unexpected ways.
25 years ago, I was just standing in a dorm room talking to a friend's girlfriend about something not important.
My friend decided to grab my pants and yanked it down hard, exposing my beautiful legs and my stained and holey whitey tighty to her, as a prank.
I walked it off as if nothing happened, but that was extremely embarrassing.
But a couple of years later, they broke up, and she kept in close contact with me insinuating that I should have a threesome with her and her new partner.
Obviously I didn't do anything about it. I'm a virgin. I don't even know how. Nothing happened with all that.
I guess what I'm trying to say is this.
If you think the market is bad now, wait till it pressures you to have sex with it later.
ChurchOfTheCycle retweeted
$BTC fractal
2 months of pa summarised in 1 fractal posted back in August.
And everyone spent these 2 months screaming up and down every single day.
And the fractal unbothered with all the noise.
This phase will be back for $BTC and for Altcoins. But people will only buy after most of it is already in the past.
ChurchOfTheCycle retweeted
Unpopuläre Meinung:
Immobilien in Deutschland sind aktuell eine der schlechteren Ideen:
-Die Boomer-Häuser kommen in den nächsten 15 bis 20 Jahren auf den Markt
-Hunderttausende Industriejobs fallen weg, mit ihnen die Kaufkraft und (Finanzierungs-) Sicherheit
-Höhere Erbschaftssteuer und neue Steuern auf Immobilien sind nur eine Frage der Zeit
-Die Bevölkerung schrumpft
Angebot steigt, Nachfrage sinkt = Erste Vorlesung VWL.
„Betongold” zählt maximal noch für A-Lagen in Großstädten.
ChurchOfTheCycle retweeted
Europe has actively decided to back itself into a corner in trade
Migration is amplifying social volatility and cultural unrest
Debt service costs are skyrocketing as rates rise
This global forces will become more apparent in the US as we progress through midterms and the next presidential election
The entire world is operating off interest rates risk and cross-border flow risk from currencies. Most people dont even have a clue what these factors are because theyre so focused on the next data print or earnings release.
